Financial Crisis and the South African Agricultural Sector: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 71-90
Author(s):  
Oluwatoba A. Fadeyi ◽  
◽  
Moosa M. Sedibe ◽  
Carlu van der Westhuizen ◽  
Lucky Igene ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
South African ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
The South

scholarly journals Contribution of VAT to economic growth: A dynamic CGE analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 26-55
Author(s):  
Jean Luc Erero ◽  
◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
South African ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
The South ◽  
Dynamic Cge ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium

Aim/purpose–This study sought to assess the impact of an increased historical fixed VAT rate of 14% to the current rate of 15% on the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach–The method applied in this study was based on a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the impact of both the VAT rate of 14% and a new rate of 15% on the South African economy. The CGE model has been proven over the years to be a suitable model when evaluating the impact assessment of any shock within an economy. Enhancements were made by the researcher to the direct and indirect tax section of the model, i.e., the direct tax section was disaggregated, such that for both firm and household revenues, a dividend income stream is separated from other income streams. The main reason is to facilitate a detailed analysis of Corporate Income Tax (CIT) and Personal Income Tax (PIT), as well as the latest implemented Dividend Tax (DT).Findings–When VAT was increased from 14% to 15%, the immediate reaction of the shock from the Dynamic CGE model indicates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 0.0002% in 2018, but increased by 0.0028% in the following year (2019). The trend continued until 2021, hence the 1% increase in the VAT tax rate will increase the expected forecast of VAT collection by approximately R3.2 billion on average. Research implications/limitations–The findings of this study will be implemented by the South African government, which will use a dynamic CGE model to assess South Africa’s VAT contribution to the economy. The database of the CGE model was limited to the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2015. Originality/value/contribution–The study recommends the use of this method for assessing the impact of tax policy changes to the South African economy. The CGE model seems to be the best model as far as the impact assessment of a shock in the econ-omy is concerned. This will assist the South African authorities with their decision mak-ing regarding future VAT revenue. Keywords: South African Revenue Service (SARS), Value Added tax (VAT), Dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.JEL Classification:H21, C68, E62.

scholarly journals Measuring the systemic risk in the South African banking sector

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory M. Foggitt ◽  
Andre Heymans ◽  
Gary W. Van Vuuren ◽  
Anmar Pretorius
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
South African ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Ethical Behaviour ◽  
The South ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case

Background: In the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis, systemic risk has become a greater priority for regulators, with the National Treasury (2011) stating that regulators should proactively monitor changes in systemic risk.Aim: The aim is to quantify systemic risk as the capital shortfall an institution is likely to experience, conditional to the entire financial sector being undercapitalised.Setting: We measure the systemic risk index (SRISK) of the South African (SA) banking sector between 2001 and 2013.Methods: Systemic risk is measured with the SRISK.Results: Although the results indicated only moderate systemic risk in the SA financial sector over this period, there were significant spikes in the levels of systemic risk during periods of financial turmoil in other countries. Especially the stock market crash in 2002 and the subprime crisis in 2008. Based on our results, the largest contributor to systemic risk during quiet periods was Investec, the bank in our sample which had the lowest market capitalisation. However, during periods of financial turmoil, the contributions of other larger banks increased markedly.Conclusion: The implication of these spikes is that systemic risk levels may also be highly dependent on external economic factors, in addition to internal banking characteristics. The results indicate that the economic fundamentals of SA itself seem to have little effect on the amount of systemic risk present in the financial sector. A more significant relationship seems to exist with the stability of the financial sectors in foreign countries. The implication therefore is that complying with individual banking regulations, such as Basel, and corporate governance regulations promoting ethical behaviour, such as King III, may not be adequate. It is therefore proposed that banks should always have sufficient capital reserves in order to mitigate the effects of a financial crisis in a foreign country. The use of worst-case scenario analyses (such as those in this study) could aid in determining exactly how much capital banks could need in order to be considered sufficiently capitalised during a financial crisis, and therefore safe from systemic risk.

scholarly journals Impacts of Changes in Exchange Rate and International Prices on Agriculture and Economy of the Sudan: Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 201
Author(s):  
Omer Elgaili Elsheikh ◽  
Azharia Abdelbagi Elbushra ◽  
Ali A. A. Salih
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Fast Food ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
Food Grains ◽  
International Prices

<p>Changes in exchange rate and international prices greatly affect food availability, the agricultural sector, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study quantifies the effects of change in exchange rate and world prices on Sudan’s agricultural production, imports, exports, and GDP. Special emphasis has been placed on sorghum and wheat, the main food grains. A Standard Computable General Equilibrium model has been developed and used for the analysis. The main objective is to contribute to policy-making process for enhancing food security and social welfare in the Sudan<strong>.</strong></p> <p>Currency depreciation would reduce wheat imports and increase its domestic production, increase sorghum export, increase domestic output and export of sesame and cotton, and improves GDP; and vice versa for appreciation. Appreciation favors urban (wheat) consumers, whereas depreciation favors rural (sorghum) consumers.</p> <p>Increasing world price of wheat would decrease its imports, whereas that of sorghum would encourage its production and export, and increase domestic food prices. GDP decreases due to investment reduction<strong>. </strong></p> <p>It is recommended that wheat import should be conditioned on hard currency availability and food gap, while maintaining stable exchange rate that strike a balance between encouraging sorghum exports and wheat imports. It is also recommended to encourage innovation of fast food from traditional grains to curb the shift to wheat consumption.</p>

scholarly journals Comparing The South African Stock Markets Response To Two Periods Of Distinct Instability The 1997-98 East Asian And Russian Crisis And The Recent Global Financial Crisis

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anmar Pretorius ◽  
Jesse De Beer
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
South African ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
The South ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Export Destination ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This paper compares the South African stock markets response to two periods of distinct instability, namely the East Asian and Russian crisis of 1997-98 and the global financial crisis of 2007-09. Considering share prices, the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) was more severely affected by the earlier crisis, when the domestic fundamentals were weaker. The low levels of foreign reserves were the main cause of concern. The paper further empirically investigates volatility spillover between the JSE and various developed and emerging stock markets during the two crisis periods, employing twelve separate bi-variate GARCH models. The main contributors to volatility spillover during the East Asian and Russian crisis were Mexico, Thailand, Brazil, and Germany predominantly emerging markets. During the second crisis period, Germany, US, Brazil, and UK played the dominant parts predominantly developed markets. The importance of Germany in both periods can be attributed to the countrys role as main export destination of South African goods in Europe.

scholarly journals THE ROLE OF FISCAL STIMULUS AND MONETARY EASING IN INDONESIAN ECONOMY DURING GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: FINANCIAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iskandar Simorangkir ◽  
Justina Adamanti
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Monetary Expansion ◽  
Positive Effects

Global financial crisis started in mid 2008 has reduced global economic growth, and many countries even experienced economic contraction. To deal with economic contraction, various economic policies have been undertaken. Governments have increased fiscal stimulus through increasing expenditure and lowering tax while central banks have cut policy rates substantially. In some countries interest rates even reach zero or close to zero. Similar to many other countries, Indonesia has also undertaken expansionary policies, namely increasing fiscal stimulus and lowering interest rates.This paper examines the impacts of fiscal stimulus and interest rate cut on Indonesian economy using financial computable general equilibrium (FCGE) approach. The estimation results show a number of findings. First, the combination of fiscal expansion and monetary expansion boosts economic growth of Indonesia effectively. Relative to the effectiveness of fiscal expansion without monetary policy expansion or monetary expansion without fiscal expansion, the combination of those two policies is more effective.Second, looking into the components of GDP, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has a large multiplier effect, boosting aggregate demand through increasing consumption, investment, government expenditure, exports and imports. Meanwhile, from production side, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has positive effects on increasing production of all economic sectors. This effect comes from fiscal incentive (lower tax, lower import duties, etc) in increasing investment. Moreover, the increase in aggregate demand also encourages enterprises to increase their production.Third, institutionally fiscal stimulus and monetary easing has increased income and purchasing power of the poor and rich households in rural and urban area. This increase in turn results in higher all household consumption.JEL Classification: D58, E12, E13, E52, E58, H25, H31, H53, H54Keywords: Fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, financial computable general equilibrium, global financial crisis.

scholarly journals The impact on the South African economy of alternative regulatory arrangements in the petroleum sector

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heinrich Bohlmann ◽  
Rod Crompton
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
The South ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Fuel Price ◽  
Parity Price ◽  
The Impact

This paper adds quantitative analysis to the study by Crompton et al. (2020), in which various alternative regulatory arrangements regarding the petrol price in South Africa were explored. We use a multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model for South Africa to conduct our economic impact analysis. Five scenarios are modelled, first individually to correctly calibrate the shocks, and then cumulatively to find the overall economy-wide effects of the proposed reforms. Under the most comprehensive set of reforms to the determination of petrol prices, which seeks to emulate market forces, the South African economy is seeing substantial benefits. GDP is expected to rise by 0.67 per cent and real wages by over 1.1 per cent relative to the baseline. Refineries are assumed to shrug off reforms targeted at removing pure profits earned via the import parity price (Basic Fuel Price) methodology by accepting a slightly lower rate of return, enabling them to meet the expected increase in demand for petrol on the back of the lower consumer prices achieved via the reforms. Whilst job losses at fuel service stations may be expected as a result of reduced revenues and margins, increased activity and job opportunities in the rest of the economy, facilitated through cheaper trade and transport margins, will more than offset those losses.

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