scholarly journals THE ROLE OF FISCAL STIMULUS AND MONETARY EASING IN INDONESIAN ECONOMY DURING GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: FINANCIAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iskandar Simorangkir ◽  
Justina Adamanti
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Monetary Expansion ◽  
Positive Effects

Global financial crisis started in mid 2008 has reduced global economic growth, and many countries even experienced economic contraction. To deal with economic contraction, various economic policies have been undertaken. Governments have increased fiscal stimulus through increasing expenditure and lowering tax while central banks have cut policy rates substantially. In some countries interest rates even reach zero or close to zero. Similar to many other countries, Indonesia has also undertaken expansionary policies, namely increasing fiscal stimulus and lowering interest rates.This paper examines the impacts of fiscal stimulus and interest rate cut on Indonesian economy using financial computable general equilibrium (FCGE) approach. The estimation results show a number of findings. First, the combination of fiscal expansion and monetary expansion boosts economic growth of Indonesia effectively. Relative to the effectiveness of fiscal expansion without monetary policy expansion or monetary expansion without fiscal expansion, the combination of those two policies is more effective.Second, looking into the components of GDP, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has a large multiplier effect, boosting aggregate demand through increasing consumption, investment, government expenditure, exports and imports. Meanwhile, from production side, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has positive effects on increasing production of all economic sectors. This effect comes from fiscal incentive (lower tax, lower import duties, etc) in increasing investment. Moreover, the increase in aggregate demand also encourages enterprises to increase their production.Third, institutionally fiscal stimulus and monetary easing has increased income and purchasing power of the poor and rich households in rural and urban area. This increase in turn results in higher all household consumption.JEL Classification: D58, E12, E13, E52, E58, H25, H31, H53, H54Keywords: Fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, financial computable general equilibrium, global financial crisis.

scholarly journals PERAN STIMULUS FISKAL DAN PELONGGARAN MONETER PADA PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA SELAMA KRISIS FINANSIAL GLOBAL : DENGAN PENDEKATAN FINANCIAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Iskandar Simorangkir ◽  
Justina Adamanti
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Monetary Expansion ◽  
Positive Effects

Global financial crisis started in mid 2008 has reduced global economic growth, and many countries even experienced economic contraction. To deal with economic contraction, various economic policies have been undertaken. Governments have increased fiscal stimulus through increasing expenditure and lowering tax while central banks have cut policy rates substantially. In some countries interest rates even reach zero or close to zero. Similar to many other countries, Indonesia has also undertaken expansionary policies, namely increasing fiscal stimulus and lowering interest rates.This paper examines the impacts of fiscal stimulus and interest rate cut on Indonesian economy using financial computable general equilibrium (FCGE) approach. The estimation results show a number of findings. First, the combination of fiscal expansion and monetary expansion boosts economic growth of Indonesia effectively. Relative to the effectiveness of fiscal expansion without monetary policy expansion or monetary expansion without fiscal expansion, the combination of those two policies is more effective.Second, looking into the components of GDP, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has a large multiplier effect, boosting aggregate demand through increasing consumption, investment, government expenditure, exports and imports. Meanwhile, from production side, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has positive effects on increasing production of all economic sectors. This effect comes from fiscal incentive (lower tax, lower import duties, etc) in increasing investment. Moreover, the increase in aggregate demand also encourages enterprises to increase their production.Third, institutionally fiscal stimulus and monetary easing has increased income and purchasing power of the poor and rich households in rural and urban area. This increase in turn results in higher all household consumption.JEL Classification: D58, E12, E13, E52, E58, H25, H31, H53, H54Keywords: Fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, financial computable general equilibrium, global financial crisis.

Growth Prospects for Advanced and Emerging Market Economies

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 599-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominick Salvatore
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Emerging Market Economies ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Secular Stagnation ◽  
Market Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Growth Prospects

This paper examines the reasons for the slow growth in the advanced countries since the recent global financial crisis, the slowdown in growth or recession in emerging market economies, the danger that the world may be drifting toward a new global financial crisis, and that it may face even secular stagnation. The paper concludes that growth is likely to remain slow for the rest of this decade in advanced countries and to continue to decline in emerging market economies. It also examines the danger that with interest rates at the zero-bound level in advanced nations, a new financial bubble may be in the making as investors, in search of returns, undertake excessively risky investments, and that this may lead to a new global financial crisis. It is not certain, however, that the world is facing secular stagnation and, if so, that a new massive fiscal stimulus (as advocated but some) would prevent it or correct it.

scholarly journals Zadłużenie gospodarstw domowych a dynamika wydatków konsumpcyjnych w krajach OECD po wybuchu kryzysu finansowego

2017 ◽  
pp. 145-158
Author(s):  
Piotr Bolibok
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

The paper aims at empirical evaluation of the impact of household debt on the dynamics of consumption spending since the beginning of the global financial crisis. The research employed linear regression analysis of the rate of growth of household spending against the rate of growth of disposable income, the level of indebtedness and long-term interest rates in the OECD member states between 2008-2014. The results obtained indicate that household indebtedness was one of the factors influencing the dynamics of consumption demand and thus the processes of economic growth in the OECD states after the beginning of the global financial crisis. Variations in the relation of total debt to net disposable income and in the level of long-term interest rates were both negatively related to the changes in consumption spending. This impact turned out to be markedly stronger when total household debt of a given country was exceeding 85% of GDP, which is consistent with the results of previous investigations on the in&uence of the indebtedness of household sector on the dynamics of economic growth

Economic effects of monetary policy in Russia: What do large datasets tell us?

2020 ◽  
pp. 31-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna A. Pestova ◽  
Natalia A. Rostova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Empirical Estimates

Is the Bank of Russia able to control inflation and, at the same time, manage aggregate demand using its interest rate instruments? In other words, are empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy in Russia consistent with the theoretical concepts and experience of advanced economies? This paper is aimed at addressing these issues. Unlike previous research, we employ “big data” — a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial data — to estimate the effects of monetary policy in Russia. We focus exclusively on the period after the 2008—2009 global financial crisis when the Bank of Russia announced the abandoning of its fixed ruble exchange rate regime and started to gradually transit to an interest rate management. Our estimation results do not confirm standard responses of key economic activity and price variables to tightening of monetary policy. Specifically, our estimates do not reveal a statistically significant restraining effect of the Bank of Russia’s policy of high interest rates on inflation in recent years. At the same time, we find a significant deteriorating effect of the monetary tightening on economic activity indicators: according to our conservative estimates, each of the key rate increases occurred in March and December 2014 had led to a decrease in the industrial production index by about 0.2 percentage points within a year.

Conclusions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Zero Bound

The preceding chapters have examined the deepened integration of emerging and developing economies (EDEs) into the international financial system in the new millennium and their changing vulnerabilities to external financial shocks. They have discussed the role that policies in advanced economies played in this process, including those that culminated in the global financial crisis and the unconventional monetary policy of zero-bound interest rates and quantitative easing adopted in response to the crisis, as well as policies in EDEs themselves....

Determinants of Spot and Forward Interest Rates in Brazil in an International Liquidity Scenario: An Econometric Analysis for the Period 2007-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Pedro Raffy Vartanian ◽  
Sérgio Gozzi Citro ◽  
Paulo Rogério Scarano
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
International Liquidity ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
International Financial Crises ◽  
International Financial Crisis ◽  
Level Of Activity ◽  
Systemic Crisis ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Over the last 25 years, Brazil has been among the countries with the highest interest rates globally. High interest rates have been necessary during several recent times, such as in the period from 1997 to 1999, due to the repeated international financial crises that have plagued the country. From 1999, a sustained path of interest rate reduction begun. With the outbreak of the 2008 international financial crisis, the Brazilian monetary authorities promoted a new round of falling domestic interest rates in response to the recessive effects and the threat of a systemic crisis that could hang over the national financial system. In 2012, a set of interventionist nature policies led to a decrease in the Selic rate. Thus, looking at the last 25 years, it appears that many factors have started to influence the trajectory of Brazilian interest rates. In this context, the present work aims to identify, based on empirical research, the determinants of spot and future interest rates. As a methodology, the research uses a multivariate econometric vector autoregressive model (VAR) with error correction (VEC). The analysis covers the years 2017 to 2019, corresponding to the period in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008. The results evidence that both the spot rate and the DI future can be determined by the fluctuations in the level of inflation and by the level of activity and the real exchange rate, in addition to the effects of the lagged variables themselves.

Measuring the Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth

2007 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 379-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanislav Ivanov ◽  
Craig Webster
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Equilibrium Models ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Models ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents a methodology for measuring the contribution of tourism to an economy's growth, which is tested with data for Cyprus, Greece and Spain. The authors use the growth of real GDP per capita as a measure of economic growth and disaggregate it into economic growth generated by tourism and economic growth generated by other industries. The methodology is compared with other existing methodologies; namely, Tourism Satellite Account, Computable General Equilibrium models and econometric modelling of economic growth.

scholarly journals Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi di Provinsi Riau tahun 2000-2018

SOROT ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Miftakul Khoiri ◽  
Syapsan Syapsan ◽  
Sri Endang Kornita
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Ordinary Least Square

Terdapat beberapa permasalahan yang berbeda pada sumber daya di setiap daerah, yaitu investasi, tenaga kerja dan teknologi sebagai faktor pembentuk output perekonomian daerah. Penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan antara investasi dalam bentuk Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA), Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri (PMDN), belanja modal pemerintah, angkatan kerja dan ekspor dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Tujuan penelitian adalah melihat pengaruh besarnya faktor-faktor tersebut terhadap Pertumbuhan ekonomi di Provinsi Riau 2000-2018. Untuk kepentingan khusus penelitian dengan tujuan melihat pengaruh krisis keuangan global tahun 2008 terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi maka dimasukkan variabel dummy krisis keuangan. Penelitian ini adalah penelitian kuantitatif dengan metode regresi berganda log-log linier dan data time series. Model diestimasi dengan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa PMA, PMDN, angkatan kerja dan ekspor signifikan positif mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diukur dengan nilai Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB). Begitu juga dengan dummy krisis keuangan global meskipun berlangsung singkat ternyata berpengaruh terhadap PDRB di Provinsi Riau. Namun demikian ditemukan bahwa belanja modal pemerintah tidak signifikan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan PDRB.There are some problems in resources of the regions, namely investment, labour force, and technology as the component factors to make the output of the region’s economy. This study aims to analyze the relationship between investment as consist of foreign direct investment (FDI), private investment, government capital expenditure, labour force, export and economic growth to the gross regional domestic product growth of regency in Riau Province 2000-2018. For the specific purpose of describing global financial crises in 2008 influence the economic growth, we put the dummy variable of the financial crisis in the model. This research is quantitative descriptive with the multiple regression model of log-linear and time series method using Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The study shows that government capital expenditure is statistically not significant to affect the gross regional domestic product growth. FDI, private investment, labour force and export is statistically significant to affect the gross regional domestic product growth. As well as a dummy of the global financial crisis is statistically significant to affect the gross regional domestic product growth.

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