Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating nest survival

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Yiqun Yang
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Nest Survival ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
R Package ◽  
Spatial Effect ◽  
Survival Curves ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Nest Period ◽  
Overall Survival Rates

[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT AUTHOR'S REQUEST.] Nest survival rate is a critical value in avian study to evaluate the landbirds populations. The widely used likelihood-based logistic regression model was evaluated in the first part of the dissertation. In this part, we investigated the importance of nest age in estimating survival rates and measured the model selection accuracy based on AIC results. Next we extended Bayesian Hierarchical Model to include different nest period lengths which estimated the overall survival rates and survival curves with combined nest period lengths. For unknown nest fate, the nest fate effect and the nest-specific covariates were included in the missing probability estimation. We also compared the results from incomplete data with the results from complete data analysis. The estimated overall survival rates and survival curves all supported the model performance. Finally, we included the spatial effect into the age-specific outcome rates estimation. The point-level nest observations explained the nest-specific spatial effect within each unit; while the grid-level data explained the spatial effect between different units. In each part, a simulation study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the model and an application was also provided. All the programs were written in FORTRAN and a R package (function) was created to make it more user friendly.

Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating nest survival

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Yiqun Yang
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Nest Survival ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
R Package ◽  
Spatial Effect ◽  
Survival Curves ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Nest Period ◽  
Overall Survival Rates

[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT AUTHOR'S REQUEST.] Nest survival rate is a critical value in avian study to evaluate the landbirds populations. The widely used likelihood-based logistic regression model was evaluated in the first part of the dissertation. In this part, we investigated the importance of nest age in estimating survival rates and measured the model selection accuracy based on AIC results. Next we extended Bayesian Hierarchical Model to include different nest period lengths which estimated the overall survival rates and survival curves with combined nest period lengths. For unknown nest fate, the nest fate effect and the nest-specific covariates were included in the missing probability estimation. We also compared the results from incomplete data with the results from complete data analysis. The estimated overall survival rates and survival curves all supported the model performance. Finally, we included the spatial effect into the age-specific outcome rates estimation. The point-level nest observations explained the nest-specific spatial effect within each unit; while the grid-level data explained the spatial effect between different units. In each part, a simulation study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the model and an application was also provided. All the programs were written in FORTRAN and a R package (function) was created to make it more user friendly.

scholarly journals Long-term outcomes of synchronous splenectomy and hepatectomy or radiofrequency ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma and esophagogastric variceal bleeding

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia-li Ma ◽  
Li Jiang ◽  
Ping Li ◽  
Ling-ling He ◽  
Hong-shan Wei
Keyword(s):  
Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
Variceal Bleeding ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Recurrence Free Survival ◽  
Long Term Outcomes ◽  
Survival Curves ◽  
Free Survival ◽  
Overall Survival Rates

Abstract Aim: This study aimed to compare the long-term outcomes of hepatectomy and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) combined with pericardial devascularization (PCDV) plus splenectomy for patients with cirrhosis having hepatocellular carcinoma and esophagogastric variceal bleeding.Materials and Methods: Between October 2008 and March 2018, 46 patients with cirrhosis having hepatocellular carcinoma and esophagogastric variceal bleeding for portal hypertension were included in this study. The overall survival curves, recurrence-free survival curves, and rebleeding-free survival curves were plotted using Kaplan–Meier analysis. The log-rank test was used to compare time-to-event curves between groups.Results: The median follow-up time was 38 months. Among 20 patients undergoing RFA, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 95.00%,60.00%, and 35.00%, respectively. The 1-, 3- and 5-year recurrence-free survival rates were 35.00%, 25.00%, and 10.00%, respectively. The 1,3- and 5-year rebleeding-free survival rates were 85.00%, 60.00%, and 40.00%, respectively. Among 26 patients undergoing hepatectomy, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 96.15%,50.00%, and 34.62%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence-free survival rates were 65.38%, 19.23%, and 11.54%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year rebleeding-free survival rates were 73.08%, 42.31%, and 26.92%, respectively. No significant differences were found in overall, recurrence-free, and rebleeding-free survival rates.Conclusions: Hepatectomy or RFA with PCDV plus splenectomy might be a safe and effective treatment for patients with cirrhosis having hepatocellular carcinoma and esophagogastric variceal bleeding. “Hepatectomy first” strategy may be considered due to its lower and later recurrence. More attention should be paid to background liver diseases after surgery.

scholarly journals Association of chemotherapy with survival in stage II colon cancer patients who received radical surgery: a retrospective cohort study

BMC Cancer ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhihao Lv ◽  
Yuqi Liang ◽  
Huaxi Liu ◽  
Delong Mo
Keyword(s):  
Colon Cancer ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Radical Surgery ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Stage Ii ◽  
Survival Prediction ◽  
Stage Ii Colon Cancer ◽  
Overall Survival Rates

Abstract Background It remains controversial whether patients with Stage II colon cancer would benefit from chemotherapy after radical surgery. This study aims to assess the real effectiveness of chemotherapy in patients with stage II colon cancer undergoing radical surgery and to construct survival prediction models to predict the survival benefits of chemotherapy. Methods Data for stage II colon cancer patients with radical surgery were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Propensity score matching (1:1) was performed according to receive or not receive chemotherapy. Competitive risk regression models were used to assess colon cancer cause-specific death (CSD) and non-colon cancer cause-specific death (NCSD). Survival prediction nomograms were constructed to predict overall survival (OS) and colon cancer cause-specific survival (CSS). The predictive abilities of the constructed models were evaluated by the concordance indexes (C-indexes) and calibration curves. Results A total of 25,110 patients were identified, 21.7% received chemotherapy, and 78.3% were without chemotherapy. A total of 10,916 patients were extracted after propensity score matching. The estimated 3-year overall survival rates of chemotherapy were 0.7% higher than non- chemotherapy. The estimated 5-year and 10-year overall survival rates of non-chemotherapy were 1.3 and 2.1% higher than chemotherapy, respectively. Survival prediction models showed good discrimination (the C-indexes between 0.582 and 0.757) and excellent calibration. Conclusions Chemotherapy improves the short-term (43 months) survival benefit of stage II colon cancer patients who received radical surgery. Survival prediction models can be used to predict OS and CSS of patients receiving chemotherapy as well as OS and CSS of patients not receiving chemotherapy and to make individualized treatment recommendations for stage II colon cancer patients who received radical surgery.

scholarly journals Long Noncoding RNA Lnc-TLN2-4:1 Suppresses Gastric Cancer Metastasis and Is Associated with Patient Survival

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Yuyun Wu ◽  
Ningbo Hao ◽  
Suming Wang ◽  
Xin Yang ◽  
Yufeng Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
Noncoding Rna ◽  
Tumor Metastasis ◽  
Cancer Metastasis ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Migration And Invasion ◽  
Poor Overall Survival ◽  
Low Expression ◽  
Overall Survival Rates

Gastric cancer (GC) is one of the most common malignancies worldwide, and the tumor metastasis leads to poor outcomes of GC patients. Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) have emerged as new regulatory molecules that play a crucial role in tumor metastasis. However, the biological function and underlying mechanism of numerous lncRNAs in GC metastasis remain largely unclear. Here, we report a novel lncRNA, lnc-TLN2-4:1, whose expression is decreased in GC tissue versus matched normal tissue, and its low expression is involved in the lymph node and distant metastases of GC, as well as poor overall survival rates of GC patients. We further found that lnc-TLN2-4:1 inhibits the ability of GC cells to migrate and invade but does not influence GC cell proliferation and confirmed that lnc-TLN2-4:1 is mainly located in the cytoplasm of GC cells. We then found that lnc-TLN2-4:1 increases the mRNA and protein expression of TLN2 in GC cells and there is a positive correlation between the expression of lnc-TLN2-4:1 and TLN2 mRNA in GC tissue. Collectively, we identified a novel lncRNA, lnc-TLN2-4:1, in GC, where lnc-TLN2-4:1 represses cell migration and invasion. The low expression of lnc-TLN2-4:1 is associated with poor overall survival rates of GC patients. These suggest that lnc-TLN2-4:1 may be a tumor suppressor during GC metastasis.

scholarly journals Survival and prognostic factors in HIV-infected adults treated with Antiretroviral Therapy in a Malaysian referral hospital: A retrospective cohort study

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee Sing Chet ◽  
Siti Azrin Ab Hamid ◽  
Norsa'adah Bachok ◽  
Suresh Kumar Chidambaram
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Antiretroviral Therapy ◽  
Haemoglobin Level ◽  
Retrospective Cohort ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Baseline Haemoglobin ◽  
History Of ◽  
Overall Survival Rates

Abstract Background: It is well established that antiretroviral therapy (ART) is beneficial in reducing the mortality among patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). In Malaysia, there is lack of study and information regarding the overall survival rates and prognostic factors for survival in HIV-infected adults treated with ART. Therefore, this study aimed to assess and compare the survival rates as well as to identify the prognostic factors for survival among HIV adults in Malaysia.Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted by reviewing the medical records of HIV patients who started ART between year 2007 and 2016 at a tertiary referral hospital in Malaysia. ART-naive adults aged 15 years and above were included and those who were transferred out were excluded. After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, there were 339 cases eligible in this study. Systematic sampling method was applied. Kaplan Meier survival curve and log-rank test were used to compare the overall survival rates. Cox proportional hazards regression was applied to determine the prognostic factors for survival.Results: The estimated overall survival rates were 95.9%, 93.8%, 90.4%, 84.9%, and 72.8% at 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 years, respectively. The overall survival rates were significantly different according to age group (p<0.001), employment status (p<0.001), transmission mode (p=0.003), and history of illicit drug use (p=0.017), baseline CD4 cell count (p<0.001), baseline haemoglobin level (p<0.001), tuberculosis co-infection (p<0.001), hepatitis co-infection (p=0.008), first NRTI (p<0.001) and history of defaults (p=0.021). Based on multiple Cox regression, patients who were anaemic had 3.76 times (95% CI: 1.97, 7.18; p<0.001) higher hazard of death than their non-anaemic counterparts. The hazard risk was 2.09 times (95% CI: 1.10, 3.96; p=0.024) higher among HIV patients co-infected with tuberculosis compared to those who were not. Conclusion: Overall survival rates were higher than low-income countries but lower than in high-income countries, and comparable with middle-income countries. Low baseline haemoglobin level and tuberculosis co-infection were strong prognostic factors for HIV survival

scholarly journals Primary Cutaneous Anaplastic Large-Cell Lymphoma: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database Analysis from 2005-2016

Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 4022-4022
Author(s):  
Cesar Gentille Sanchez ◽  
Joe Ensor ◽  
Akshjot Puri ◽  
Jasleen K. Randhawa ◽  
Shilpan S. Shah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Head And Neck ◽  
Anaplastic Large Cell Lymphoma ◽  
Cell Lymphoma ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Large Cell ◽  
Seer Database ◽  
Skin Site ◽  
Large Cell Lymphoma ◽  
Overall Survival Rates

Introduction Primary cutaneous anaplastic large-cell lymphoma (PCALCL) is a rare T-cell lymphoma that presents as a solitary or grouped nodules. It is characterized by anaplastic-appearing cells that are usually ALK negative but have high expression of CD30. There is paucity of epidemiologic data on PCALCL. A prior analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database by Yu et al. reported only 157 cases from 1973 to 2004. We are presenting an analysis of the patients diagnosed with PCALCL after 2004. Methods We used the SEER database to retrospectively identify patients diagnosed with PCALCL from 2005 to 2016. The database collects data from cancer registries covering approximately 26% of the US population and was used to estimate frequencies and overall incidence rate. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank tests were used to compare survival distributions. We assessed the effect of primary skin site (head and neck) and increasing age on survival as they were suggestive of decreased overall survival on multivariate analysis of the 1973-2004 cohort. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant for all analysis. Results There were 501 cases of PCALCL recorded from 2005 to 2016. Median follow-up was 52 months. The overall incidence rate was found to be 0.12/1,000,000 age adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. More than 50% of the cases were diagnosed after 2010. The median age at diagnosis was 61 years (2-97 years). It was seen most frequently in White (72.9%) patients followed by Hispanic (10.2%) and Black (9.4%) patients. The male to female ratio was 1.42. The most common primary sites affected were the skin of the lower limbs and hip (26.4%) and head and neck (21.3%). A 33.4% of patients required treatment which was mainly excisional (1 patient required amputation). Notably, PCALCL was diagnosed as a second or third malignancy in 19.2% of cases. Overall survival rates at 5 years and 10 years were found to be 80.6% (95% CI: 76.3%, 84.3%) and 61.5% (95% CI: 54.1%, 68.1%) respectively. Age greater than 60 years old was significantly associated with a lower survival (89.7% vs 54.4%, p<0.0001). Survival was not significantly different if head and neck was the site of the primary lesion (64.2% vs 60.8%, p = 0.4371). Conclusion Our analysis of the SEER database for PCALCL is the largest done to our knowledge. Although the number of cases has almost tripled since 2005, it is still a rare type of cutaneous T-cell lymphoma. Lower extremities and hips are the most frequent primary skin site. Only a third of the patients required treatment with overall survival rates of more than 80% by 5 years. Older age (more than 60 years old) is associated with a worse outcome. Head and neck as the primary skin site does not appear to be associated to lower survival as previously thought. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

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