Prediction of distant metastasis of spinal and pelvic osteosarcoma by constructing and validating nomogram:a retrospective study based on SEER database

Background:Spinal and pelvic osteosarcoma is a rare type of all osteosarcomas,and distant metastasis is an important factor for poor prognosis of this disease. There are no similar studies on prediction of distant metastasis of spinal and pelvic osteosarcoma. We aim to construct and validate a nomogram to predict the risk of distant metastasis of spinal and pelvic osteosarcoma.Methods:We collected the data on patients with spinal and pelvic osteosarcoma from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results(SEER) database retrospectively. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to compare differences in survival time between patients with metastasis and non-metastasis. Total patients were randomly divided into training cohort and validation cohort. The risk factor of distant metastasis were identified via the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO) regression and multivariate logistic analysis. The nomogram we constructed were validated internally and externally by C-index, calibration curves,receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve and Decision curve analysis (DCA).Results:The Kaplan-Meier curve showed that the survival time of non-metastatic patients was longer than that of metastatic patients(P＜0.001).All patients(n=358) were divided into training cohort(n=269) and validation cohort(n=89).The LASSO regression selected five meaningful variables in the training cohort. The multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that surgery(yes,OR=0.175, 95%CI=0.095-0.321,p=0.000) was the independent risk factors for distant metastasis of patients with spinal and pelvic osteosarcoma. The C-index and calibration curves showed the good agreement between the predicted results and the actual results. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC) values were 0.748(95%CI=0.687-0.817) and 0.758(95%CI=0.631-0.868) in the training and validation cohorts respectively. The DCA showed that the nomogram has a good clinical usefulness and net benefit.Conclusion:No surgery is the independent risk factor of distant metastasis of spinal and pelvic osteosarcoma. The nomogram we constructed to predict the probability of distant metastasis of patients with spinal and pelvic osteosarcoma is reliable and effective by internal and external verification.

Predicting Prognosis In Primary Pulmonary Sarcoma Using A Clinical Nomogram Based On SEER Database

Background: Primary pulmonary sarcoma (PPS) accounts for less than 1.1% of all pulmonary tumors. Few data outcomes are reported. This study aims to clarify the predictive value of clinicopathologic features on the overall survival (OS) of PPS patients.Methods: Patients with primary pulmonary sarcoma (PPS) were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (from 2000 to 2015) and divided randomly into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 1:1. Univariate Cox analysis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were implemented to identify prognostic factors related to overall survival of primary pulmonary sarcoma patients. Then, we performed multivariate Cox regression to establish a prognostic factors signature. The Kaplan- Meier (K-M) survival curves and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to estimate the prognostic power of the signature. In addition, multivariate Cox regression screened out independent prognostic factors and constructed a nomogram. Results: PPS patients with training group were divided into low- and high-risk group based on risk score, and high-risk group had a shorter survival time. The validation group got the same result. (P<0.001). On multivariate analysis of the training cohort, independent factors for survival were marriage, age, sex, grade, operation, metastasis and tumor size, which were all selected into the nomogram. The calibration curve and ROC plots for probability of 3-year and 5-year survival were in accord with prediction by nomogram and actual observation. And the C-index of the nomogram for predicting survival was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.80, P<0.05), which was statistically significant. Conclusion: We constructed a risk prognosis model based on PPS patients from SEER database. In addition, the construction of nomogram provides one more idea for clinical treatment.

Construction and validation of the prognostic model for patients with neuroendocrine cervical carcinoma: a competing risk nomogram analysis

Purpose Neuroendocrine cervical carcinoma (NECC) is an uncommon malignancy of the female reproductive system. This study aimed to evaluate cancer-specific mortality and to construct prognostic nomograms for predicting the survival of patients with NECC. Methods we assembled the patients with NECC diagnosed between 2004 to 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Meanwhile, we identified other patients with NECC from the Wenling Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital between 2002 to 2017. Fine and Gray’s test and Kaplan–Meier methods were used to evaluate cancer-specific mortality and overall survival (OS) rates, respectively. Nomograms were constructed for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) and OS for patients with NECC. The developed nomograms were validated both internally and externally. Results a total of 894 patients with NECC were extracted from the SEER database, then classified into the training cohort (n = 628) and the internal validation cohort (n = 266). Besides, 106 patients from the Wenling Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital served as an external validation cohort. Nomograms for predicting CSS and OS were constructed on clinical predictors. The validation of nomograms was calculated by calibration curves and concordance indexes (C-indexes). Furthermore, the developed nomograms presented higher areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves when compared to the FIGO staging system. Conclusions we established the first competing risk nomograms to predict the survival of patients with NECC. Such a model with high predictive accuracy could be a practical tool for clinicians.

The Clinical and Prognostic Factors for Biliary Neuroendocrine Neoplasm: A Study Based on the SEER Database

Background: In this study, we aimed at elucidating the postoperative survival and prognostic factors in patients with biliary neuroendocrine neoplasm (NEN).Methods: Cases of biliary system NEN and adenocarcinoma were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. A propensity score matching (PSM) method was used to adjust baseline differences in clinicopathological characteristics in our analysis. The Kaplan-Meier analysis was carried out for survival analysis. Results：A total of 243 patients with biliary system NEN were enrolled in this study, of which 119 patients’ lesions located in gallbladder, while the others’ located in bile duct. The postoperative overall survival of bile duct NEN is significantly longer than that of gallbladder NEN (P<0.001). For GB-NENs, surgery method (P=0.020) and lymph node metastasis (P=0.018) were identified as independent prognostic factors. In terms of AOV NENs, age (P=0.017) and lymph node metastasis (P=0.006) were identified was independent prognostic factor, while grade (P=0.002) and lymph node metastasis (P=0.036) were identified as independent prognostic factors for EBD NENs. PSM analysis indicated that patients with biliary duct NENs have better postoperative prognosis than biliary duct adenocarcinoma.Conclusions: Patients with NEN have better overall survival than patients with adenocarcinoma. Gallbladder NEN has adverse prognosis than that of biliary tract NEN. Pathological subtype, differentiation, lymph node metastasis, surgery method and lymph node resection could affect postoperative prognosis of gallbladder and biliary tract NEN.

Overall Survival Rate Analysis For Risk Factors In Women With Neuroendocrine Carcinoma of The Cervix Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, And End Results (SEER) Database

Background: Neuroendocrine carcinoma of the cervix is rare and aggressive disease, of which prognosis information and the effectiveness of the therapies is unclear.Methods: A retrospective study using data from the SEER database for the first diagnosed Neuroendocrine carcinoma of the cervix patients was conducted. We performed univariate and multivariate Cox models to screen for independent prognostic factors for overall survival. Subgroup analysis and sensitive analysis were performed for further study, then again univariate and multivariate analyses of Cox regression analysis were performed based on the sensitivity analysis data set.Results: A total of 250 Neuroendocrine carcinoma of the cervix cases was included, tumor subtype, age, marriage, race, number of regional lymph nodes, number of positive lymph nodes, radiotherapy, surgery, and FIGO stage were all factors affecting OS, and multivariate analysis identified FIGO staging (HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.505-3.828, P < 0.001) and surgery (HR, 0.467; 95% CI, 0.358-0.609, P < 0.001) treatment as independent indicators. With respect to the factors associated with treatments, we found that patients who underwent surgery (yes vs. no vs. unknown) or radiation (yes vs. no) experienced prolonged survival, both P < 0.001Conclusions: Our investigation shows that for patients with NECC surgery seems to be the effective treatment. Chemotherapy cannot improve the prognosis of NECC patients, and the effectiveness of radiation should be further verified.