TOURISM DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BANGLADESH: NEW EVIDENCE FROM NONLINEAR AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG

Abstract Most of the extant studies on remittance-growth nexus have been limited to symmetric and linear effects of remittance on economic growth. Unlike previous studies, we examine asymmetric and nonlinear association between remittance and economic growth within the framework of nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model utilizing Nigeria’s data from 1981 to 2018. The study finds the evidence to support that growth responds asymmetrically to remittances only in the long-run. It is established that both positive and negative variations in remittance inflows dampen the productive base of the economy in the long-run while positive and negative changes in remittances are growth-retarding and growth-enhancing respectively in the short-run. The study, therefore, concludes that persistent increase in remittance inflows have not been channeled to productive ventures that are capable of stimulating growth in Nigeria. Thus, consistent with the view of pessimistic theorists, continual inflows of remittances to Nigeria could not be termed brain gains to the economy. JEL CLASSIFICATION: F24, F43, O11

Download Full-text

Terrorism–Tourism–Economic Growth Nexus in India: An NARDL Evidence

FIIB Business Review ◽

10.1177/2319714520965281 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 300-308

Author(s):

Santhosh Kumar P. K. ◽

Sanjeev M. A.

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Positive Relation ◽

Indian States ◽

Jammu And Kashmir ◽

Tourist Destinations ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Short Run ◽

Domestic Products ◽

Nonlinear Autoregressive

Some of the major tourist destinations in India are also reeling under terror. This study examines the causal relationship between terrorism and tourism and economy impact in the Indian states of Jammu and Kashmir, Assam and Manipur using the asymmetric nonlinear autoregressive-distributed lag (NARDL) approach. The study is an attempt to investigate the ‘tourism–terrorism–economy’ relationship which has hitherto been not widely studied. The estimates based on the Granger causality approach demonstrate that there is causality among terrorism, tourism and economic growth (proxied by state gross domestic products—SGDP) in the short run for all the three study states. The results indicate positive relation between SGDP and tourism in all the three states and between SGDP and terrorism in Assam and Manipur. However, the relation between SGDP and terrorism is negative for Jammu and Kashmir. The results indicate that the relation between the three study variables is highly contextual and cannot be generalized across tourist destinations.

Download Full-text

Interacting force of foreign direct invest (FDI), natural resource and economic growth in determining environmental performance: A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach

Resources Policy ◽

10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102168 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 73 ◽

pp. 102168

Author(s):

Edmund Ntom Udemba ◽

Selin Yalçıntaş

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Natural Resource ◽

Environmental Performance ◽

Foreign Direct Invest ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Nonlinear Autoregressive

Download Full-text

The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model

Journal of Asian Economics ◽

10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101398 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 101398

Author(s):

Donghui Liu ◽

Lingjie Meng ◽

Yudong Wang

Keyword(s):

Oil Price ◽

Price Changes ◽

Asymmetric Effects ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Distributed Lag Model ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Lag Model ◽

New Evidence ◽

Nonlinear Autoregressive

Download Full-text

Investigating asymmetric effects of public debt on economic growth in South Africa: a smooth transition regression (STAR) approach

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies ◽

10.1108/ajems-02-2021-0072 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Bongumusa Prince Makhoba ◽

Irrshad Kaseeram ◽

Lorraine Greyling

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

South Africa ◽

Public Debt ◽

Smooth Transition ◽

Content Type ◽

Asymmetric Effects ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Smooth Transition Regression ◽

Nonlinear Autoregressive

PurposeThe primary purpose of the study is to analyse the asymmetric effects of public debt on economic growth, using secondary data over the period 1980–2018 in South Africa.Design/methodology/approachThis study estimated a Smooth Transition Regression (STAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach, using time series data to analyse the asymmetric effect of public debt on economic growth in South Africa.FindingsThe findings revealed a significant nonlinear relationship between public debt and economic growth in South Africa. The results showed an inverted U-Shape relationship, implying a significant positive influence of public debt on economic growth during the low-debt regime. While during a high-debt regime, public debt exerted a significant negative effect on economic growth. The study proposes that policymakers ought to consider targeting a sustainable debt threshold that would enhance efficient use of public finances consistent with long-term economic prosperity.Originality/valueThis paper asymmetries and threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in South Africa, through the application of dynamic nonlinear models namely, Smooth Transition Regression (STAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. Studies on the relationship under examination have predominantly been confined in advanced economies. This study provides rigorous empirical evidence from the South African perspective.

Download Full-text

A new look at the tourism development and economic growth nexus: International evidence

Tourism Economics ◽

10.1177/1354816620938482 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 135481662093848

Author(s):

Ramzi Benkraiem ◽

Amine Lahiani ◽

Anthony Miloudi ◽

Muhammad Shahbaz

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Relative Weight ◽

Tourism Development ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Distributed Lag Model ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Lag Model ◽

Tourism Destinations

This article tests the relationship between tourism development and economic growth in major tourism destinations in the world. The study relies on the quantile autoregressive distributed lag model. The main findings show a nonlinear cointegrating relationship between tourism development and economic growth in France, Mexico, Spain, and Italy. Indeed, in these countries, the long-run cointegrating parameter and speed of adjustment parameter differ across quantiles of economic growth distribution. They also show a nonlinear contemporaneous and lagged influence of tourism development on economic growth except in China and Germany. These differences between countries may be attributed to differences in the relative weight of the tourism industry in the overall economy of each country, whereas the differences across quantiles may be explained by the negative externalities caused by tourism growth. These findings have important policy and decision implications because tourism has differing impacts on economic growth in the short and long run in major tourism destinations. Thus, they may have new and helpful insights in planning for tourism development policies that facilitate the stimulation of economic growth.

Download Full-text

Hot Money and Stock Market in China: Empirical Evidence from ARDL and NARDL Approaches

International Journal of Business and Society ◽

10.33736/ijbs.3753.2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 22 (2) ◽

pp. 713-733

Author(s):

Kwang-Jing Yii ◽

Chai-Thing Tan ◽

Nian-Meng Tan ◽

Xue-Wen Teng ◽

Ting-En Khor ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Stock Market ◽

Negative Relationship ◽

Oil Price ◽

Asymmetric Effect ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Nonlinear Autoregressive ◽

Hot Money

This study discusses the relationship between hot money and stock market in China by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) methods. The data used in this study is quarterly data over the period 2000: Q1 to 2017: Q4. The results show that oil price, economic growth and hot money possess a long-run relationship towards stock market in China, whereas, no effect is found from inflation. The oil price and economic growth are both positively related to stock market while there is a negative relationship from hot money. Furthermore, the study supports the existence of an asymmetric effect between hot money and stock market. The findings imply that policymakers should form better monitoring systems to control the inflow of hot money, thus, strengthening investors’ confidence and avoiding unwanted bubbles in China’s stock market.

Download Full-text