scholarly journals Effect of Madden Julian oscillation on convectively coupled equatorial waves

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ritvik Dobriyal
Keyword(s):  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

scholarly journals Forecast Skill of the Madden–Julian Oscillation in Two Canadian Atmospheric Models

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (11) ◽  
pp. 4130-4149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai Lin ◽  
Gilbert Brunet ◽  
Jacques Derome
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

Abstract The output of two global atmospheric models participating in the second phase of the Canadian Historical Forecasting Project (HFP2) is utilized to assess the forecast skill of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The two models are the third generation of the general circulation model (GCM3) of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma) and the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model of Recherche en Prévision Numérique (RPN). Space–time spectral analysis of the daily precipitation in near-equilibrium integrations reveals that GEM has a better representation of the convectively coupled equatorial waves including the MJO, Kelvin, equatorial Rossby (ER), and mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) waves. An objective of this study is to examine how the MJO forecast skill is influenced by the model’s ability in representing the convectively coupled equatorial waves. The observed MJO signal is measured by a bivariate index that is obtained by projecting the combined fields of the 15°S–15°N meridionally averaged precipitation rate and the zonal winds at 850 and 200 hPa onto the two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) structures as derived using the same meridionally averaged variables following a similar approach used recently by Wheeler and Hendon. The forecast MJO index, on the other hand, is calculated by projecting the forecast variables onto the same two EOFs. With the HFP2 hindcast output spanning 35 yr, for the first time the MJO forecast skill of dynamical models is assessed over such a long time period with a significant and robust result. The result shows that the GEM model produces a significantly better level of forecast skill for the MJO in the first 2 weeks. The difference is larger in Northern Hemisphere winter than in summer, when the correlation skill score drops below 0.50 at a lead time of 10 days for GEM whereas it is at 6 days for GCM3. At lead times longer than about 15 days, GCM3 performs slightly better. There are some features that are common for the two models. The forecast skill is better in winter than in summer. Forecasts initialized with a large amplitude for the MJO are found to be more skillful than those with a weak MJO signal in the initial conditions. The forecast skill is dependent on the phase of the MJO at the initial conditions. Forecasts initialized with an MJO that has an active convection in tropical Africa and the Indian Ocean sector have a better level of forecast skill than those initialized with a different phase of the MJO.

scholarly journals Modulation of Daily Rainfall in Southern Vietnam by the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (16) ◽  
pp. 5801-5820 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roderick van der Linden ◽  
Andreas H. Fink ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto ◽  
Tan Phan-Van ◽  
George N. Kiladis
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Radiosonde Data ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Coherent Signals ◽  
Southern Vietnam ◽  
Wave Interference ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies

Abstract Rainfall extremes have a large socioeconomic relevance for southern Vietnam. More than 30 million people live in this low-lying, flood-prone region in Southeast Asia. In this study the influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves on the modulation of daily rainfall during the rainy season (May–October) is evaluated and quantified using an extensive station database and the gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) product for different phases of the equatorial waves. The MJO, Kelvin, and equatorial Rossby (ER) waves significantly modulate daily rainfall in Vietnam south of 16°N. The MJO shows the most coherent signals across the region, followed by ER waves, whose influence is strongest in central Vietnam; Kelvin waves only affect the southern parts of Vietnam. For all waves, the frequency of occurrence of intense daily rainfall larger than 25 mm is significantly enhanced during wet phases, whereas the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is related to the wave’s amplitude only in the MJO and ER cases. A novel wave interference diagram reveals strong positive interferences of dry and wet anomalies when the MJO occurs concurrently with Kelvin and ER waves. In terms of causes of rainfall anomalies, the waves modulate tropospheric moisture convergence over the region, but a strong influence on the depth of the monsoon flow and the vertical wind shear is discernible from radiosonde data only for the MJO. The results suggest new opportunities for submonthly prediction of dry and wet spells in Indochina.

scholarly journals Comparison of forecasting accuracy for Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves (CCEW) using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and ERA-Interim precipitation forecast data for Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ida Pramuwardani ◽  
Hartono ◽  
Sunarto ◽  
Arhasena Sopaheluwakan
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Poor Correlation ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Rainfall ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber ◽  
Forecast Data

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and ERA-Interim forecast data analyzed using second-order autoregressive AR(2) and space-time-spectra analysis methods (respectively) revealed contrasting results for predicting Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves (CCEW) phenomena over Indonesia. This research used the same 13-year series of daily TRMM 3B42 V7 derived datasets and ERA-Interim reanalysis model datasets from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for precipitation forecasts. Three years (2016 to 2018) of the filtered 3B42 and ERA-Interim forecast data was then used to evaluate forecast accuracy by looking at correlation coefficients for forecast leads from day +1 through day +7. The results revealed that rainfall estimation data from 3B42 provides better results for the shorter forecast leads, particularly for MJO, equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG), and inertia-gravity phenomena in zonal wavenumber 1 (IG1), but gives poor correlation for Kelvin waves for all forecast leads. A consistent correlation for all waves was achieved from the filtered ERA-Interim precipitation forecast model, and although this was quite weak for the first forecast leads it did not reach a negative correlation in the later forecast leads except for IG1. Furthermore, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was also calculated to complement forecasting skills for both data sources, with the result that residual RMSE for the filtered ERA-Interim precipitation forecast was quite small during all forecast leads and for all wave types. These findings prove that the ERA-Interim precipitation forecast model remains an adequate precipitation model in the tropics for MJO and CCEW forecasting, specifically for Indonesia.

scholarly journals Variation of Radar-Observed Precipitation Characteristics in Relation to the Simultaneous Passages of a Madden-Julian Oscillation Event and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves during the Years of the Maritime Continent Pilot Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biao Geng ◽  
Masaki Katsumata
Keyword(s):  
Pilot Study ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Frequency Variation ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ◽  
Precipitation Characteristics ◽  
Before And After

AbstractIn this study, we examined the variations of precipitation morphology and rainfall in relation to the simultaneous passages of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) observed during the Years of the Maritime Continent pilot study. We utilized globally merged infrared brightness temperature data and the radiosonde and radar data observed aboard the research vessel Mirai at 4°4′S, 101°54′E. As well as the observed MJO event, equatorial Rossby waves (ERWs), Kelvin waves (KWs), and mixed Rossby-gravity waves (MRGWs) were identified. The radar data exhibited high-frequency variation, mainly caused by KWs and MRGWs, and low-frequency variation, mainly caused by the MJO and ERWs. The MRGWs predominantly modulated convective echo areas and both convective and stratiform volumetric rainfall. In contrast, the MJO event had little influence on the variance of convective echoes. Moreover, stratiform echo areas and volumetric rainfall were more strongly modulated by the combined effects of the MJO, ERWs, KWs, and MRGWs than their convective counterparts. The intense development of stratiform echo areas and volumetric rainfall was coherent with the superimposition of the active phases of the MJO event and all the analyzed CCEWs. The strongest development and a significant reduction of convective echo-top heights before and after the peak MJO date, respectively, were coherent with the passages of ERWs and MRGWs, which were the dominant wave types in modulating echo-top heights. Thus, it appears that the superimposition of the CCEWs on the MJO event exerted complex modulations on the convective activities within the MJO event.

A note on the power distribution between symmetric and anti-symmetric components of the tropical Brightness Temperature spectrum in the wavenumber-frequency plane

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ofer Shamir ◽  
Chaim I. Garfinkel ◽  
Ori Adam ◽  
Nathan Paldor
Keyword(s):  
Brightness Temperature ◽  
Power Distribution ◽  
Spectral Power ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Background Spectrum ◽  
Temperature Spectrum ◽  
Spectral Bands ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ◽  
The Difference

AbstractA recent study observed the existence of a salient bias towards the symmetric part of the tropical wavenumber-frequency spectrum. Examination of the tropical Brightness Temperature (BT) spectrum in this note shows that its parity difference, i.e., the difference between its symmetric and anti-symmetric components, is concentrated in regions of the wavenumber-frequency plane corresponding to the spectral bands suggested by Wheeler and Kiladis (1999). In terms of the difference between the spectral power in the symmetric and anti-symmetric components, the spectral bands corresponding to Kelvin waves, Madden-Julian Oscillation, and Rossby waves explain about 31%, 21%, and 13% of the symmetric bias, respectively, while the combined contribution of all the other bands is negligible. The “background” spectrum after filtering out all the spectral bands explains the remaining 35% of the symmetric bias. As these spectral bands were originally designed for filtering convectively coupled equatorial waves, the findings of this note may help estimate the contributions of different wave features to the symmetric bias in the tropical BT spectrum. In addition, these findings may also help better understand the processes responsible for generating the tropical background spectrum.

scholarly journals Models for Multiscale Interactions. Part II: Madden–Julian Oscillation, Moisture, and Convective Momentum Transport

2016 ◽  
Vol 56 ◽  
pp. 10.1-10.5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Majda ◽  
Samuel N. Stechmann
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Momentum Transport ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Convective Momentum Transport

Abstract It is well known that the envelope of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) consists of smaller-scale convective systems, including mesoscale convective systems (MCS), tropical cyclones, and synoptic-scale waves called “convectively coupled equatorial waves” (CCW). In fact, recent results suggest that the fundamental mechanisms of the MJO involve interactions between the synoptic-scale CCW and their larger-scale environment (Majda and Stechmann). In light of this, this chapter reviews recent and past work on two-way interactions between convective systems—both MCSs and CCW—and their larger-scale environment, with a particular focus given to recent work on MJO–CCW interactions.

The influence of observations propagated by convectively coupled equatorial waves

2011 ◽  
Vol 137 (656) ◽  
pp. 641-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qoosaku Moteki ◽  
Kunio Yoneyama ◽  
Ryuichi Shirooka ◽  
Hisayuki Kubota ◽  
Kazuaki Yasunaga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

scholarly journals Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves. Part I: Horizontal and Vertical Structures

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (10) ◽  
pp. 3406-3423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gui-Ying Yang ◽  
Brian Hoskins ◽  
Julia Slingo
Keyword(s):  
Composite Structures ◽  
Wave Structure ◽  
Wave Theory ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Ambient Flow ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ◽  
Eastern Hemisphere ◽  
Equatorial Wave

Abstract Multilevel 15-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-15) and satellite-observed brightness temperature (Tb) data for the period May–October 1992 are used to examine the horizontal and vertical structures of convectively coupled equatorial waves. Dynamical waves are isolated using a methodology developed previously. Composite structures of convectively coupled equatorial waves are obtained using linear regression/correlation between convection (Tb) and dynamical structures. It is found that the relationship depends on the ambient flow and the nature of the convective coupling, and varies between off-equatorial- and equatorial-centered convection, different hemispheres, and seasons. The Kelvin wave structure in the Western Hemisphere is generally consistent with classic equatorial wave theory and has its convection located in the region of low-level convergence. In the Eastern Hemisphere the Kelvin wave tends to have convection in the region of enhanced lower-tropospheric westerlies and a tilted vertical structure. The Kelvin wave also tends to have a third peak in zonal wind amplitude at 500 hPa and exhibits upward propagation into the lower stratosphere. Lower-tropospheric westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) and n = 1 Rossby (R1) wave structures and their relationship with convection are consistent with classic equatorial wave theory and the implied lower-tropospheric convergences. In the Eastern Hemisphere the WMRG and R1 waves have first baroclinic mode structures in the vertical. However, in the Western Hemisphere, the R1 wave has a barotropic structure. In the Eastern Hemisphere the R1 wave, like the Kelvin wave, tends to have equatorial convection in the region of enhanced lower-level westerlies, suggesting that enhanced surface energy fluxes associated with these waves may play an important organizing role for equatorial convection in this warm-water hemisphere. In the upper troposphere, eastward-moving Rossby–gravity (EMRG) and n = 1 gravity waves are found in the Eastern Hemisphere, and eastward-moving WMRG and R1 waves are found in the Western Hemisphere, suggestive of Doppler shifting of waves by the ambient flow.

scholarly journals Response of the West African Monsoon to the Madden–Julian Oscillation

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (15) ◽  
pp. 4097-4116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally L. Lavender ◽  
Adrian J. Matthews
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Negative Temperature ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract Observations show that rainfall over West Africa is influenced by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). A number of mechanisms have been suggested: 1) forcing by equatorial waves; 2) enhanced monsoon moisture supply; and 3) increased African easterly wave (AEW) activity. However, previous observational studies are not able to unambiguously distinguish between cause and effect. Carefully designed model experiments are used to assess these mechanisms. Intraseasonal convective anomalies over West Africa during the summer monsoon season are simulated in an atmosphere-only global circulation model as a response to imposed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the MJO over the equatorial warm pool region. 1) Negative SST anomalies stabilize the atmosphere leading to locally reduced convection. The reduced convection leads to negative midtropospheric latent heating anomalies that force dry equatorial waves. These waves propagate eastward (Kelvin wave) and westward (Rossby wave), reaching Africa approximately 10 days later. The associated negative temperature anomalies act to destabilize the atmosphere, resulting in enhanced monsoon convection over West and central Africa. The Rossby waves are found to be the most important component, with associated westward-propagating convective anomalies over West Africa. The eastward-propagating equatorial Kelvin wave also efficiently triggers convection over the eastern Pacific and Central America, consistent with observations. 2) An increase in boundary layer moisture is found to occur as a result of the forced convective anomalies over West Africa rather than a cause. 3) Increased shear on the African easterly jet, leading to increased AEW activity, is also found to occur as a result of the forced convective anomalies in the model.

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