Identification of the surface temperature change in the Atlantic-European and Mediterranean regions using ERA5 re-analysis
The article analyzes the seasonal, interannual and inter-decadal variability of the surface / drive temperature of the Atlantic-European and Mediterranean regions, as well as assesses temperature trends. The information is based on the data of the re-analysis of ERA5. This is one of the latest climate re-analyses, which was performed by specialists of the European Center for Medium-term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with a spatial resolution of 0.25°x0.25°. We analyzed hourly data for 41 years, from 1979 to 2019 for two periods: the entire re-analysis period and the thirty-year climate period from 1990 to 2019. The purpose of the analysis was to clarify the relative role of natural quasi-periodic changes in temperature and the trend component of presumably anthropogenic origin. The most important role of natural temperature changes on time scales from interannual to inter-decennial is confirmed. Linear temperature trends calculated over the last climate period of thirty years are responsible for the increase in temperature over the mainland areas to 3°C over 30 years. At the same time, over a significant part of the north-eastern Atlantic and adjacent land areas, the linear trends estimated over a thirty-year period are insignificant. Natural quasi-periodic components of variability prevail here. As the analyzed period increases, the areas of significant temperature trends expand. In the area of the Canary and Portuguese upwelling, a decrease in the driving temperature is observed, confirming the validity of the hypothesis of A. Bakun of the intensification of the eastern coastal upwelling systems in the contemporary climate epoch.