scholarly journals Identification of the surface temperature change in the Atlantic-European and Mediterranean regions using ERA5 re-analysis

Author(s):  
A.B. Polonsky ◽  
◽  
S.S. Beytser ◽  

The article analyzes the seasonal, interannual and inter-decadal variability of the surface / drive temperature of the Atlantic-European and Mediterranean regions, as well as assesses temperature trends. The information is based on the data of the re-analysis of ERA5. This is one of the latest climate re-analyses, which was performed by specialists of the European Center for Medium-term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with a spatial resolution of 0.25°x0.25°. We analyzed hourly data for 41 years, from 1979 to 2019 for two periods: the entire re-analysis period and the thirty-year climate period from 1990 to 2019. The purpose of the analysis was to clarify the relative role of natural quasi-periodic changes in temperature and the trend component of presumably anthropogenic origin. The most important role of natural temperature changes on time scales from interannual to inter-decennial is confirmed. Linear temperature trends calculated over the last climate period of thirty years are responsible for the increase in temperature over the mainland areas to 3°C over 30 years. At the same time, over a significant part of the north-eastern Atlantic and adjacent land areas, the linear trends estimated over a thirty-year period are insignificant. Natural quasi-periodic components of variability prevail here. As the analyzed period increases, the areas of significant temperature trends expand. In the area of the Canary and Portuguese upwelling, a decrease in the driving temperature is observed, confirming the validity of the hypothesis of A. Bakun of the intensification of the eastern coastal upwelling systems in the contemporary climate epoch.

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 375-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. R. van der Werf ◽  
A. J. Dolman

Abstract. The instrumental surface air temperature record has been used in several statistical studies to assess the relative role of natural and anthropogenic drivers of climate change. The results of those studies varied considerably, with anthropogenic temperature trends over the past 25–30 years suggested to range from 0.07 to 0.20 °C decade−1. In this short communication, we assess the origin of these differences and highlight the inverse relation between the temperature trend of the past 30 years and the weight given to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as an explanatory factor in the multiple linear regression (MLR) tool that is usually employed. We highlight that robust MLR outcomes require a better understanding of the AMO in general and, more specifically, of its characterization. Our results indicate that both the high and the low end of the anthropogenic trend over the past 30 years found in previous studies are unlikely and that a transient climate response of 1.6 (1.0–3.3) °C best captures the historic instrumental temperature record.


2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 529-544
Author(s):  
G. R. van der Werf ◽  
A. J. Dolman

Abstract. The instrumental surface air temperature record has been used in several statistical studies to assess the relative role of natural and anthropogenic drivers of climate change. The results of those studies varied considerably, with anthropogenic temperature trends over the past 25–30 years suggested to range from 0.07 to 0.20 °C decade−1. In this short communication we assess the origin of these differences and highlight the inverse relation between the derived anthropogenic temperature trend of the past 30 years and the weight given to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as an explanatory factor in the multiple linear regression (MLR) tool that is usually employed. We highlight that robust MLR outcomes require a better understanding of the AMO in general and more specifically its characterization. Our results indicate that both the high- and low end of the anthropogenic trend over the past 30 years found in previous studies are unlikely and that a transient climate response with best estimates centred around 1.3 °C per CO2 doubling best captures the historic instrumental temperature record.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1812
Author(s):  
Karol Augustowski ◽  
Józef Kukulak

The rate of bank retreat was measured using erosion pins on the alluvial banks of the rivers in the Podhale region (the boundary zone between Central and Outer Carpathians) during the hydrological year 2013/2014. During the winter half-year (November–April), the bank retreat was mainly caused by processes related to the freezing and thawing of the ground (swelling, creep, downfall). During the summer half-year (May–October), fluvial processes and mass movements such as lateral erosion, washing out, and sliding predominated. The share of fluvial processes in the total annual amount of bank retreat (71 cm on average) was 4 times greater than that of the frost phenomena. Erosion on bank surfaces by frost phenomena during the cold half-year was greatest (up to 38 cm) on the upper parts of banks composed of fine-grained alluvium, while fluvial erosion during the summer half-year (exceeding 80 cm) mostly affected the lower parts of the banks, composed of gravel. The precise calculation of the relative role of frost phenomena in the annual balance of bank erosion was precluded at some stations by the loss of erosion pins in the summer flood.


2002 ◽  
Vol 751 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglei Wang ◽  
Guoda D. Lian ◽  
Elizabeth C. Dickey

ABSTRACTSolute segregation to grain boundaries is a fundamental phenomenon in polycrystalline metal-oxide electroceramics that has enormous implications for the macroscopic dielectric behavior of the materials. This paper presents a systematic study of solute segregation in a model dielectric, titanium dioxide. We investigate the relative role of the electrostatic versus strain energy driving forces for segregation by studying yttrium-doped specimens. Through analytical transmission electron microscopy studies, we quantitatively determine the segregation behavior of the material. The measured Gibbsian interfacial excesses are compared to thermodynamic predictions.


2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (6) ◽  
pp. 855-868 ◽  
Author(s):  
DuanYang Xu ◽  
XiangWu Kang ◽  
ZhiLi Liu ◽  
DaFang Zhuang ◽  
JianJun Pan

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