Determinants of Spot and Forward Interest Rates in Brazil in an International Liquidity Scenario: An Econometric Analysis for the Period 2007-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Pedro Raffy Vartanian ◽  
Sérgio Gozzi Citro ◽  
Paulo Rogério Scarano
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
International Liquidity ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
International Financial Crises ◽  
International Financial Crisis ◽  
Level Of Activity ◽  
Systemic Crisis ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Over the last 25 years, Brazil has been among the countries with the highest interest rates globally. High interest rates have been necessary during several recent times, such as in the period from 1997 to 1999, due to the repeated international financial crises that have plagued the country. From 1999, a sustained path of interest rate reduction begun. With the outbreak of the 2008 international financial crisis, the Brazilian monetary authorities promoted a new round of falling domestic interest rates in response to the recessive effects and the threat of a systemic crisis that could hang over the national financial system. In 2012, a set of interventionist nature policies led to a decrease in the Selic rate. Thus, looking at the last 25 years, it appears that many factors have started to influence the trajectory of Brazilian interest rates. In this context, the present work aims to identify, based on empirical research, the determinants of spot and future interest rates. As a methodology, the research uses a multivariate econometric vector autoregressive model (VAR) with error correction (VEC). The analysis covers the years 2017 to 2019, corresponding to the period in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008. The results evidence that both the spot rate and the DI future can be determined by the fluctuations in the level of inflation and by the level of activity and the real exchange rate, in addition to the effects of the lagged variables themselves.

Conclusions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Zero Bound

The preceding chapters have examined the deepened integration of emerging and developing economies (EDEs) into the international financial system in the new millennium and their changing vulnerabilities to external financial shocks. They have discussed the role that policies in advanced economies played in this process, including those that culminated in the global financial crisis and the unconventional monetary policy of zero-bound interest rates and quantitative easing adopted in response to the crisis, as well as policies in EDEs themselves....

scholarly journals An Investigation into the Fundamental Drivers of Pricing of Residential Mortgage Products – A Risk Pricing Viewpoint

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 60-72
Author(s):  
Harry M Karamujic
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exact Science ◽  
Residential Mortgage ◽  
Risk Pricing ◽  
Price Risks ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Underlying Theme

Residential mortgage products (also known as home loans) pricing has been long understood to be something of a ‘dark art’, requiring judgment and experience, rather than being an exact science. In the last decade, a lot has changed in this field and more and more lenders, primarily the larger lenders, are increasingly looking to make their pricing as exact as possible. Even so, inadequate pricing of residential mortgage products (in particular its substandard risk pricing) has been seen as one of major causes of the global financial crisis (GFC) and subsequent spectacular banking collapses. The underlying theme of the paper is to exhibit how contemporary lenders, in practice, price their residential mortgage products. While discussing elements of the pricing calculation particular attention was given to the exposition of how contemporary lenders price risks involved in providing home loans. Because of the importance of Basel capital accords to how financial institutions assess and quantify their risks, the paper provides an overview of Basel capital accords. The author envisages that the paper will (i) help enhance comprehension of the underlying elements of the pricing calculation and the ways in which these elements relate to each other, (ii) scrutinize how contemporary lenders identify and quantify risks and (iii) improve consciousness of future changes in interest rates

Assessing The Impact Of The Global Financial Crisis On GCC Countries

2010 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hisham H. Abdelbaki
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 27pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="color: #0d0d0d; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-EG;">No doubt, the </span><span style="color: #0d0d0d; font-size: 10pt;">international financial crisis that started in the United States of America will cast its effects on all countries of the world, developed and developing. Yet these effects vary from one country to another for several reasons. The GCC countries would not escape these negative effects of this severe crisis. The negative effects of the crisis on gulf countries come from many aspects: first, decrease in price of oil on whose revenues the development programs in these countries depend; second, decrease in the value of US$ and the subsequent decrease in the assets owned by these countries in US$; third, a case of economic stagnation will prevail in the world with effects starting to appear. </span><span style="color: #0d0d0d; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-EG;">It is obvious that this would be reflected on the real sector in the economies causing a series of negative effects through decrease of the world demand for exports of GCC countries of oil, petrochemicals and aluminum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Lastly, increased inflation rates with decreased interest rates will result in a decrease in real interest with an accompanying decrease in incentives for saving and consequently investment and economic development. The main aim of the research is to assess the economic effects of the global financial crisis on GCC countries. The paper results are that the big reserves of foreign currencies achieved by the GCC countries in the past few years have helped increase their ability to bear the effects of the financial effects on one hand and their ability to adopt expansionary policies through pumping liquidity to absorb the regressive effects of the crisis on the other. The paper recommends the necessity of taking precautionary procedures for the effects which will result from the expansionary policies effective in GCC countries. <strong></strong></span></span></p>

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Central Banking

2019 ◽  
pp. 170-192
Author(s):  
Alex Cukierman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Regulatory Reforms

This chapter describes the impacts of the global financial crisis on monetary policy and institutions. It argues that during the crisis, financial stability took precedence over traditional inflation targeting and discusses the emergence of unconventional policy instruments such as quantitative easing (QE), forex market interventions, negative interest rates, and forward guidance. It describes the interaction between the zero lower bound (ZLB) and QE, and proposals, such as raising the inflation target, to alleviate the ZLB constraint. The chapter discusses the consequences of the relative passivity of fiscal policies, “helicopter money,” and 100 percent reserve requirement. The crisis triggered regulatory reforms in which central banks’ objectives were expanded to encompass macroprudential regulation. The chapter evaluates recent regulatory reforms in the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom. It presents data on new net credit formation during the crisis and discusses implications for exit policies.

Corporate Change After the Global Financial Crisis

2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-271
Author(s):  
Ivo Arnold
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Business Model ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Corporate Change ◽  
History Of ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Abstract This paper examines the strategic response of the Dutch bank ING to the global financial crisis. Prior to the crisis, ING was a prominent global exponent of direct banking, using the so-called pure play internet (PPI) business model. PPI banking is a hybrid business model that combines features of relationship and transaction banking. Downsides of this business model are that it may lead to overexposure in securities and that it may attract savers that have an above-average sensitivity to interest rates or risk. Using data on the geographical activities of ING, the timeline of relevant events in the history of ING and strategy statements of ING management, we examine how ING has responded to the strategic challenges of the crisis. We conclude that PPI banking should be viewed more as a market penetration strategy than as a full-blown business model that is tenable in the long run. JEL Classification: G01, G21

scholarly journals FINANCIAL CRISIS AND STOCK MARKET LINKAGES

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
VICTOR MANUEL DE SOUSA GABRIEL ◽  
JOSE RAMOS PIRES MANSO
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
International Stock Markets ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
European Markets ◽  
Dot Com

This paper investigates interdependencies and linkages between international stock markets in the short-run. Thus, twelve European and non-European markets were selected, and the period from 4. October 1999 to 30 June 2011 was chosen, which includes the Dot-Com crisis and the recent Global Financial Crisis. To investigate interdependence and dynamic linkages between stock markets, a vector autoregressive model, the concept of Granger causality and impulse-response functions were considered. We concluded that the global financial crisis contributes to the intensification of the interdependence between stock markets. 

scholarly journals Monetary policy responses to the global financial crisis: A case study of Egypt

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 65-78
Author(s):  
Monal Abdel-Baki
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Reserve Requirements ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Arab Spring

Among the triggers of the Arab Spring are the declining living standards of the middle and lower income groups. Undoubtedly, the global financial crisis (GFC) is to be partially blamed for weakening the economies of these nations. But was monetary policy ineffective in combating inflation and reducing the meltdown? This paper employs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to assess the effectiveness of the monetary policy in the wake of the GFC. Egypt is selected as a case study due to its overdependence on imported food, the prices of which are relentlessly soaring. The results of the study reveal that the ideal operating targets for the Central Bank of Egypt are the overnight rate and legal reserve requirements. Interest rates are more suitable for long-run impact on the ultimate goals of growth, price stability and job creation. The study culminates in designing a framework to enhance central bankers’ political independence and transparency, which is imperative for nations with high levels of corruption. The study is not only informative to the new Egyptian policymakers, but also to other developing and emerging economies that suffer from symptoms of chronic inflation and looming socio-political turmoil.

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