Determinants of Spot and Forward Interest Rates in Brazil in an International Liquidity Scenario: An Econometric Analysis for the Period 2007-2019

Over the last 25 years, Brazil has been among the countries with the highest interest rates globally. High interest rates have been necessary during several recent times, such as in the period from 1997 to 1999, due to the repeated international financial crises that have plagued the country. From 1999, a sustained path of interest rate reduction begun. With the outbreak of the 2008 international financial crisis, the Brazilian monetary authorities promoted a new round of falling domestic interest rates in response to the recessive effects and the threat of a systemic crisis that could hang over the national financial system. In 2012, a set of interventionist nature policies led to a decrease in the Selic rate. Thus, looking at the last 25 years, it appears that many factors have started to influence the trajectory of Brazilian interest rates. In this context, the present work aims to identify, based on empirical research, the determinants of spot and future interest rates. As a methodology, the research uses a multivariate econometric vector autoregressive model (VAR) with error correction (VEC). The analysis covers the years 2017 to 2019, corresponding to the period in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008. The results evidence that both the spot rate and the DI future can be determined by the fluctuations in the level of inflation and by the level of activity and the real exchange rate, in addition to the effects of the lagged variables themselves.

The Influence of Financial Accounting and Reporting on the Management of a Business Organization and A Case Study

<p>The international financial crises experienced in recent years have led to the loss of confidence in capital markets. The understanding of organizational management has been developed to enable businesses to become reliable and robust institutions and to regain lost market confidence. Businesses need well-organized and well-functioning information systems to create reliable and robust structures. The most important of the business information systems is the accounting information system (MBS). The accounting information system plays an important role in the development of corporate governance understanding and taking the necessary measures in this direction and also in the presentation of the results of the application to the relevant persons.</p><p>As a result of the research, it has been determined that there is a significant positive relationship between corporate governance understanding and accounting information systems. In this context, attention should be paid to the accounting information system to successfully implement corporate governance understanding in enterprises and to offer solutions to problems. Because the accounting information system and corporate governance understanding create mutual power for effective management.</p>

Impact of the covid-19 crisis on global financial imbalances

Following the synthesis of theories related to the mechanisms of international financial crises, authors Kovalev and Paseko developed the Model of global imbalance synergy, which substantiates the idea of generating economic and financial crisis situations globally by manifesting the chain of different imbalances. The model starts from global monetary and demographic imbalances, which determine the imbalances between real and financial sector of global economy, as well as real and market values of transnational companies. Together they all lead to imbalances in the distribution of global wealth in industrially developed and developing countries, as well as imbalance between consumption and income in industrially developed countries. Studies in this area have demonstrated the viability and usefulness of this model. The current situation tends to make some clarifications in this model. First of all, it is about the onset of a pro-cyclical economic crisis in 2018, against the background of which in 2020 an economic crisis of a pandemic nature began. Secondly, the latter tends to exacerbate global imbalances, which may ultimately trigger a global financial crisis. The situation is exacerbated by global trade conflicts with negative consequences, continued currency clashes and inflated financial bubbles. This situation requires urgent remedial actions at the global level.

The effect of foreign investment flow on commonality in liquidity on the Brazilian stock market

ABSTRACT The aim of this study was to analyze the characteristics and determinants of commonality in liquidity in the Brazilian stock market. Since the internationalization of the Brazilian stock market (Bolsa, Brasil, Balcão - B3), the flow of foreign investment in Brazil has increased over the years, except in times of crisis. Thus, the present study argues that, in the Brazilian stock market, commonality in liquidity is partly determined by foreign investor trading. Despite the benefits obtained from foreign resources in the Brazilian stock market, it is important to analyze the effect of this flow of foreign investment into the Brazilian stock market. This paper contributes to the current literature by providing evidence for commonality in liquidity in the Brazilian stock market and by showing its stronger effect in periods of market decline. Therefore, investors pay greater attention to the risk of commonality in their portfolios when executing orders and to their trading timing due to the increase in transaction costs of the stocks most sensitive to commonality in liquidity. The study sample consisted of a set of companies listed on the Brazilian stock exchange from January 2007 through December 2017. To analyze commonality in liquidity, we used the model proposed by Karolyi, Lee, and Djik (2012) and by Qian, Tam, and Zhang (2014). To measure the influence of foreign investors on the Brazilian stock market, we used three measures based on Gonçalves and Eid (2016). The results showed that commonality occurs in the Brazilian stock market and that it peaks during international financial crises, as well as indicated that commonality might be higher in times of crisis due to capital constraint. In addition, the results showed that foreign investor participation partly determined commonality.

Analyzing the Impact of Derivatives on the Emerging Markets Financial Stability

In recent decade, volatility of stocks and interest rates, together with the globalization of capital markets, increased the demand on financial instruments with the purpose of distribution of risks. The estimation of the role of financial derivatives instruments is very important for the stability of international financial system. The impact of derivatives upon International Financial Crises is an issue that is still dividing academics and practitioners. This paper focuses on analyzing the roles of derivatives in the financial crises. Within the framework of this research, three (3) emerging countries were studied for 1997-2010 quarterly. OLS regressive equation was used for empirical tests. The model includes the following variables: crisis index (dependent variable) and independent variables which include: the Ratio of the Current Account to GDP, the Ratio of the Domestic Credits on Private Sector to GDP, and the Ratio of the total notional amounts outstanding of the exchange traded derivatives to Foreign Exchange Reserves. Empirical analysis shows that the influence of derivatives over financial stability is not unilateral, and it depends on the characteristics of the financial system of the country. The study conducted on example of emerging markets, particularly Argentina, Russia and Brazil, revealed negative influence of derivatives on the financial system.

Effects of Financial Crises on Latin American Economies-Colombia Case and the SMEs

This article analyzes the most representative international financial crises in Colombia since 1990: the Asian crisis of 1997 and the Sub-Prime crisis of 2008 in the United States. Likewise, the impacts and their effects on national production in some Latin American countries are indicated. Finally, it is shown how financial literacy cushions the negative effects on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are of vital importance in the economy for its contribution to GDP and the generation of formal jobs.

IS COMMONALITY IN LIQUIDITY A PRICED RISK FACTOR?

ABSTRACT Purpose: Analyze if the commonality in liquidity is priced and its relation with the stock return in the Brazilian stock market. Originality/value: Due to the shortage of papers about the effects of commonality in liquidity in the Brazilian financial literature, this paper provides knowledge development about commonality in liquidity effect for the investor, investigating whether an investment strategy in the most sensitive assets to systematic variations of liquidity is attractive for investors, consistent with the risk-return trade off. Design/methodology/approach: In order to identify the effect of commonality to investors, we opted to use portfolios. Using companies listed on B3 as a sample, we estimated regressions developed in the time series from January 2007 to December 2015. Findings: We found that the commonality is a phenomenon present in the Brazilian stock market and their highest values were concentrated in periods of international financial crises. In addition, using portfolios, we observed a premium of 4.165% per month for the commonality in liquidity, although not statistically significant. Finally, we found that the commonality in liquidity is a priced risk factor and when we exposed it to other risk factors we found that the liquidity risk factor was able to partly capture it.

Work, worklessness, and mental health

The association between unemployment and mental disorders is complex. Some of the strongest evidence for the causal impact of losing employment on mental health comes from studies carried out during and in the years following national and international financial crises and economic recession. Mental health problems can also lead to unemployment and, once unemployed, people suffering from these conditions have difficulty finding and sustaining employment. It was taken for granted that people with disabilities associated with enduring mental health problem required a lengthy period of re-training before job seeking. More recently, this ‘train then place’ approach has been turned on its head, starting first with job placement and following this with ongoing support to both employee and employer. Research has now shown the latter to be the more effective approach across several countries albeit tempered by factors such as the state of the wider economy and availability of welfare support.