scholarly journals The Effect of Global Oil Price Shocks on China’s Chemical Markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fuel Oil ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Jump Intensity

This paper investigates the effects of global oil price shocks on China’s chemical market and two typical markets: fuel oil and PTA. The ARJI-GARCH model is applied to extract the jump intensity of crude oil returns. Then, jump intensity and positive and negative oil price shocks are added to the ARMA-GARCH model to examine the spillover effects of the crude oil market on chemical markets. Our results indicate that global oil returns are characterized by time-varying jump behavior. In addition, the impacts of oil returns jumps on the chemical markets are different. The oil returns jumps only have significant effects on the whole market and the fuel oil market. Moreover, the oil price shocks have asymmetric effects on chemical markets, except for the fuel oil market. Specifically, negative oil price shocks have greater effects on these markets than do positive shocks.

scholarly journals Identifying oil price shocks and their consequences: The role of expectations in the crude oil market

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuji Fueki ◽  
Jouchi Nakajima ◽  
Shinsuke Ohyama ◽  
Yoichiro Tamanyu
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Oil Market

COMPARING THE IMPACTS OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ACROSS STOCK MARKETS

2015 ◽  
Vol 77 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siok Kun Sek ◽  
Zhan Jian Ng ◽  
Wai Mun Har
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

We conduct empirical analyses on comparing the spillover effects of oil price shocks on the volatility of stock returns between oil importing and oil exporting countries. In particular, we seek to study how the nature of oil price shocks differs due to the oil dependency factor and how the stock markets react to such shocks. Applying the multivariate GARCH-BEKK(1,1) model, our results detect spillover effects between crude oil price and stock returns for all countries. The short run persistencies of shocks are smaller but the persistencies of shocks are very high in the long run. The results hold for both groups of countries. The results imply larger spillover effect from oil price shock into stock market in the oil importing countries.

scholarly journals Oil Price Forecasting Using a Time-Varying Approach

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1403
Author(s):  
Lu-Tao Zhao ◽  
Shun-Gang Wang ◽  
Zhi-Gang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Trend Prediction ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Polynomial Decomposition

The international crude oil market plays an important role in the global economy. This paper uses a variable time window and the polynomial decomposition method to define the trend term of time series and proposes a crude oil price forecasting method based on time-varying trend decomposition to describe the changes in trends over time and forecast crude oil prices. First, to characterize the time-varying characteristics of crude oil price trends, the basic concepts of post-position intervals, pre-position intervals and time-varying windows are defined. Second, a crude oil price series is decomposed with a time-varying window to determine the best fitting results. The parameter vector is used as a time-varying trend. Then, to quantitatively describe the continuation of the time-varying trend, the concept of the trend threshold is defined, and a corresponding algorithm for selecting the trend threshold is given. Finally, through the predicted trend thresholds, the historical reference data are selected, and the time-varying trend is combined to complete the crude oil price forecast. Through empirical research, it is found that the time-varying trend prediction model proposed in this paper achieves a better prediction than several common models. These results can provide suggestions and references for investors in the international crude oil market to understand the trends of oil prices and improve their investment decisions.

scholarly journals Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Knut Are Aastveit ◽  
Hilde C. Bjørnland ◽  
Jamie L. Cross
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Pass Through

Abstract Inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global oil market. We establish this result using a structural VAR model of the global oil market that jointly identifies transmissions of oil demand and supply shocks through real oil prices to both expected and actual inflation. We demonstrate that economic activity shocks have a significantly longer lasting effect on inflation expectations and actual inflation than other types of real oil price shocks, and resolve disagreements around the role of oil prices in explaining the missing deflation puzzle of the Great Recession.

The Effects of Oil Price Shock on the Indian Economy—A Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 190-202
Author(s):  
Nenavath Sreenu
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Price Impact ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Development Activity ◽  
Indian Economy

The article examines the effects of crude oil price shocks on the Indian economy development and GDP growth for the period of 2010–2018. Currently, the Indian economy has been facing the identical issues of escalating trade disparity and continuing inflation. In this connection, the study focussed on the determination of the relationship between the speculation and crude oil price impact on the Indian economic development activity and GDP growth, and the paper investigated how oil price variations affect the Indian economy development through different networks like WPI, CP, IIP, GDP, monetary policy, trade and investment. The research paper adopted methods such as GARCH model and description to tool the volatility on both the oil and stock markets, and then an extension of the vector auto-regression (VAR) models is also applied to determine the oil price shocks’ effect on macroeconomic indicators. The outcomes of cointegration model propose that crude oil is pro-cyclical to output, and the article used VAR investigation to check the discrepancy in decomposition to capture the linear inter-dependencies among the variables. JEL Classification: G4, G11, G15

The effect of crude oil price shocks on macroeconomic stability in Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 249-277
Author(s):  
John Bosco Dramani ◽  
Prince Boakye Frimpong
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability
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