scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Vaccination, Screening, Treatment on the Dynamics of Pneumonia

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 525-536
Author(s):  
K. S. Rahman ◽  
S. R. Mitkari ◽  
S. Shaikh
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
Nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equation ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

In this paper we have presented a deterministic model for pneumonia transmission and we have used the model to avail the potential impact of therapy. The model is based on the vaccinated-susceptible-carrier-infected-recovered-susceptible compartmental structure and their possible interventions with the possibility of infected individual recovery from natural immunity. Here, we have modeled Pneumonia considering vaccination, screening and treatment with a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equation. The model reproduction number R0 is derived and the stability of the equilibria are derived. The stability of equilibrium points is analyzed. The results shows that there exists a locally stable disease free equilibrium points, E0 when R0<1 and a unique endemic equilibrium E1, when R0>1. Infection free point was found to be locally stable and if reproduction number is greater than unity, then there is unique endemic equilibrium point and if it is less than unity, the endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable and pneumonia will be eliminated.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling on Double Quarantine Process in the Spread and Stability of Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jangyadatta Behera ◽  
Aswin Kumar Rauta ◽  
Yerra Shankar Rao ◽  
Sairam Patnaik
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Analytical Result ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

Abstract In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed on the spread and control of corona virus disease2019 (COVID19) to ascertain the impact of pre quarantine for suspected individuals having travel history ,immigrants and new born cases in the susceptible class following the lockdown or shutdown rules and adopted the post quarantine process for infected class. Set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are generated and parameters like natural mortality rate, rate of COVID-19 induced death, rate of immigrants, rate of transmission and recovery rate are integrated in the scheme. A detailed analysis of this model is conducted analytically and numerically. The local and global stability of the disease is discussed mathematically with the help of Basic Reproduction Number. The ODEs are solved numerically with the help of Runge-Kutta 4th order method and graphs are drawn using MATLAB software to validate the analytical result with numerical simulation. It is found that both results are in good agreement with the results available in the existing literatures. The stability analysis is performed for both disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium points. The theorems based on Routh-Hurwitz criteria and Lyapunov function are proved .It is found that the system is locally asymptotically stable at disease free and endemic equilibrium points for basic reproduction number less than one and globally asymptotically stable for basic reproduction number greater than one. Finding of this study suggest that COVID-19 would remain pandemic with the progress of time but would be stable in the long-term if the pre and post quarantine policy for asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals are implemented effectively followed by social distancing, lockdown and containment.

scholarly journals On a New Discrete SEIADR Model with Mixed Controls: Study of Its Properties

Mathematics ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raul Nistal ◽  
Manuel de la Sen ◽  
Santiago Alonso-Quesada ◽  
Asier Ibeas
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Treatment Control ◽  
Potential Interest ◽  
Continuous Models ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Made In

A new discrete SEIADR epidemic model is built based on previous continuous models. The model considers two extra subpopulation, namely, asymptomatic and lying corpses on the usual SEIR models. It can be of potential interest for diseases where infected corpses are infectious like, for instance, Ebola. The model includes two types of vaccinations, a constant one and another proportional to the susceptible subpopulation, as well as a treatment control applied to the infected subpopulation. We study the positivity of the controlled model and the stability of the equilibrium points. Simulations are made in order to provide allocation and examples to the different possible conditions. The equilibrium point with no infection and its stability is related, via the reproduction number values, to the reachability of the endemic equilibrium point.

scholarly journals APLIKASI MODEL EPIDEMIK SEIAR-SEI PADA PENYEBARAN PENYAKIT MALARIA DENGAN INFEKSI ASIMTOMATIK DAN SUPER INFEKSI

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Stella Maryana Belwawin
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptomatic Infections ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Super Infection ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractThis aim of this study is to determine the point of equilibrium and analyze the stability of SEIAR-SEI model on malaria disease with asymptomatic infection, super infection and the effect of the mosquito's life cycle. This study also aim is to measure the sensitivity of the spread of malaria to the parameters of asymptomatic infections, the rate of treatment, and the rate of birth of mosquitoes through the magnitude of . The method in this research is deductively, through several stage, such as  determination of disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point, determination of basic reproduction number (), analyze of the basic reproduction number sensitivity of the spread of malaria to the parameters of asymptomatic infections, the rate of treatment, and the rate of birth of mosquitoes. The endemic equilibrium point was obtained using rule of Descartes. The result show that the change in the value of parameter , , and  has effect on the basic reproduction number (). Treatment factors in the human population influence the elimination of malaria in a population. Whereas asymptomatic infection factors and the birth rate of adult mosquitoes influence the increase in malaria infection. Keywords:  Malaria, asymptomatic infection, super infection, basic reproduction number, rule of descrates. AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan menentukan titik keseimbangan dan menganalisis kestabilan dari model SEIAR_SEI pada penyakit malaria dengan pengaruh infeksi asimtomatik, super infeksi, dan siklus hidup nyamuk. Penelitian ini juga bertujuan mengukur tingkat sensitivitas penyebaran penyakit malaria terhadap parameter infeksi asimtomatik, laju pengobatan, serta laju kelahiran nyamuk.melalu besaran .  Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode deduktif dengan langkah-langkah : menentukan titik keseimbangan bebas penyakit dan endemik dan menentukan bilangan reproduksi dasar ). Analisis sensitivitas bilangan reproduksi dasar dilakukan terhadap parameter infeksi asimtomatik, pengobatan, dan laju kelahiran nyamuk. Tititk keseimbangan endemik diperoleh dengan aturan descrates. Hasil yang diperoleh menunjukkan parameter , , dan  berpengaruh terhadap bilangan reproduksi dasar (). Faktor pengobatan berpengaruh terhadap eliminasi penyakit malaria. Sedangkan faktor infeksi asimtomatik dan laju kelahiran nyamuk dewasa berpengaruh terhadap peningkatan infeksi penyakit malaria. Kata kunci: Malaria, Infeksi Asimtomatik, Super Infeksi, Bilangan Reproduksi Dasar, Aturan Descrates . 

scholarly journals On an SEIR Epidemic Model with Vaccination of Newborns and Periodic Impulsive Vaccination with Eventual On-Line Adapted Vaccination Strategies to the Varying Levels of the Susceptible Subpopulation

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (22) ◽  
pp. 8296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malen Etxeberria-Etxaniz ◽  
Santiago Alonso-Quesada ◽  
Manuel De la Sen
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Impulsive Vaccination ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

This paper investigates a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model with demography under two vaccination effort strategies. Firstly, the model is investigated under vaccination of newborns, which is fact in a direct action on the recruitment level of the model. Secondly, it is investigated under a periodic impulsive vaccination on the susceptible in the sense that the vaccination impulses are concentrated in practice in very short time intervals around a set of impulsive time instants subject to constant inter-vaccination periods. Both strategies can be adapted, if desired, to the time-varying levels of susceptible in the sense that the control efforts be increased as those susceptible levels increase. The model is discussed in terms of suitable properties like the positivity of the solutions, the existence and allocation of equilibrium points, and stability concerns related to the values of the basic reproduction number. It is proven that the basic reproduction number lies below unity, so that the disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable for larger values of the disease transmission rates under vaccination controls compared to the case of absence of vaccination. It is also proven that the endemic equilibrium point is not reachable if the disease-free one is stable and that the disease-free equilibrium point is unstable if the reproduction number exceeds unity while the endemic equilibrium point is stable. Several numerical results are investigated for both vaccination rules with the option of adapting through ime the corresponding efforts to the levels of susceptibility. Such simulation examples are performed under parameterizations related to the current SARS-COVID 19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Model on the Effect of Seasonal Factors on Malaria Transmission Dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Victor Yiga ◽  
Hasifa Nampala ◽  
Julius Tumwiine
Keyword(s):  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Current Control ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Mosquito Vector ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Malaria is one of the world’s most prevalent epidemics. Current control and eradication efforts are being frustrated by rapid changes in climatic factors such as temperature and rainfall. This study is aimed at assessing the impact of temperature and rainfall abundance on the intensity of malaria transmission. A human host-mosquito vector deterministic model which incorporates temperature and rainfall dependent parameters is formulated. The model is analysed for steady states and their stability. The basic reproduction number is obtained using the next-generation method. It was established that the mosquito population depends on a threshold value θ , defined as the number of mosquitoes produced by a female Anopheles mosquito throughout its lifetime, which is governed by temperature and rainfall. The conditions for the stability of the equilibrium points are investigated, and it is shown that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction number exceeds unity. Numerical simulations show that both temperature and rainfall affect the transmission dynamics of malaria; however, temperature has more influence.

scholarly journals Pengembangan Model Matematika SIRD (Susceptibles-Infected-Recovery-Deaths) Pada Penyebaran Virus Ebola

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Endah Purwati ◽  
Sugiyanto Sugiyanto
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Direct Contact ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Body Fluids ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Ebola is a deadly disease caused by a virus and is spread through direct contact with blood or body fluids such as urine, feces, breast milk, saliva and semen. In this case, direct contact means that the blood or body fluids of patients were directly touching the nose, eyes, mouth, or a wound someone open. In this paper examined two mathematical models SIRD (Susceptibles-Infected-Recovery-Deaths) the spread of the Ebola virus in the human population. Both the mathematical model SIRD on the spread of the Ebola virus is a model by Abdon A. and Emile F. D. G. and research development model. This study was conducted to determine the point of disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium point and stability analysis of the dots, knowing the value of the basic reproduction number (R0) and a simulation model using Matlab software version 6.1.0.450. From the analysis of the two models, obtained the same point for disease-free equilibrium point with the stability of different points and different points for endemic equilibrium point with the stability of both the same point and the same value to the value of the basic reproduction number (R0). After simulating the model using Matlab software version 6.1.0.450, it can be seen changes in the behavior of the population at any time.

scholarly journals Analisis Model Matematika Penyebaran Demam Berdarah Dengue dengan Fungsi Lyapunov

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Syafruddin Side ◽  
Ahmad Zaki ◽  
Nurwahidah Sari
Keyword(s):  
Lyapunov Function ◽  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Sirs Model ◽  
Disease Free

Abstrak. Artike lini adalah penelitian teori dan terapan. Artikelini bertujuan untuk membahas mengenai model matematika SIRS untuk penyebaran Demam Berdarah Dengue. Data yang digunakanadalah data sekunder jumlah penderita penyakit Demam Berdarah Dengue dari Side pada tahun 2014. Pembahasan di mulai dari membangun model matematika SIRS penyakit Demam Berdarah Dengue, menentukan eksistensi model SIRS menggunakan fungsi Lyapunov, penentuan titik ekuilibrium, kemudian mencari analisis kestabilan titik ekuilibrium menggunakan fungsi Lyapunov, menentukan nilai bilangan reproduksi dasar , membuat simulasi model, dan menginterpretasikannya. Dalam artikel ini diperoleh model matematika SIRS untuk penyakit Demam Berdarah Dengue, eksistensi model SIRS, dua titik ekuilibrium bebas penyakit dan endemik dari model SIRS, kestabilan global keseimbangan bebas penyakit dan endemik dari model SIRS dengan nilai bilangan reproduksi dasar , ini menunjukkan bahwa penyakit Demam Berdarah Dengue berstatus epidemik.Kata Kunci: Model Matematika, Penyebaran Penyakit, Demam Berdarah Dengue, Model  SIRS, Fungsi LyapunovAbstract. This paper is theorethical and applied research. This paper aims to discus about SIRS mathematical models for the spread of dengue fever. The data used is a secondary data about the number of people with dengue fever disease from Side (2014). The discussion start from constructing SIRS models of dengue fever disease, determining the existence of SIRS models using Lyapunov function, determining equilibrium point, then looking for stability analysis of equilibrium point using Lyapunov function, determining reproduction number , making models simulation, and interpreting it. In this paper, we obtained mathemathical models of SIRS for dengue fever disease, existence of SIRS models, disease-free and endemic equilibrium points of SIRS models, global stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium of SIRS models with basic reproduction number , it shows that dengue fever disease is epidemic status. , This shows that Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever is an epidemic.Keyword: Mathematical Model, Spread of Disease, Dengue Fever, SIRS Model, Lyapunov Function

scholarly journals Model matematika penyebaran COVID-19 dengan penggunaan masker kesehatan dan karantina

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 68-79
Author(s):  
Muhammad Manaqib ◽  
Irma Fauziah ◽  
Eti Hartati
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Geometric Picture ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

This study developed a model for the spread of COVID-19 disease using the SIR model which was added by a health mask and quarantine for infected individuals. The population is divided into six subpopulations, namely the subpopulation susceptible without a health mask, susceptible using a health mask, infected without using a health mask, infected using a health mask, quarantine for infected individuals, and the subpopulation to recover. The results obtained two equilibrium points, namely the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point, and the basic reproduction number (R0). The existence of a disease-free equilibrium point is unconditional, whereas an endemic equilibrium point exists if the basic reproduction number is more than one. Stability analysis of the local asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium point when the basic reproduction number is less than one. Furthermore, numerical simulations are carried out to provide a geometric picture related to the results that have been analyzed. The results of numerical simulations support the results of the analysis obtained. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction numbers carried out obtained four parameters that dominantly affect the basic reproduction number, namely the rate of contact of susceptible individuals with infection, the rate of health mask use, the rate of health mask release, and the rate of quarantine for infected individuals.

scholarly journals Modeling the impact of early interventions on the transmission dynamics of coronavirus infection

F1000Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 518
Author(s):  
Christopher Saaha Bornaa ◽  
Baba Seidu ◽  
Yakubu Ibrahim Seini
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Transmission Probability ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Early Interventions ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

A deterministic model is proposed to describe the transmission dynamics of coronavirus infection with early interventions. Epidemiological studies have employed modeling to unravel knowledge that transformed the lives of families, communities, nations and the entire globe. The study established the stability of both disease free and endemic equilibria. Stability occurs when the reproduction number, R0, is less than unity for both disease free and endemic equilibrium points. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point of the model is established whenever the basic reproduction number R0 is less than or equal to unity. The reproduction number is also shown to be directly related to the transmission probability (β), rate at which latently infected individuals join the infected class (δ) and rate of recruitment (Λ). It is inversely related to natural death rate (μ), rate of early treatment (τ1), rate of hospitalization of infected individuals (θ) and Covid-induced death rate (σ). The analytical results established are confirmed by numerical simulation of the model.

scholarly journals Modeling the impact of early interventions on the transmission dynamics of coronavirus infection

F1000Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 518
Author(s):  
Christopher Saaha Bornaa ◽  
Baba Seidu ◽  
Yakubu Ibrahim Seini
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Transmission Probability ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Early Interventions ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

A deterministic model is proposed to describe the transmission dynamics of coronavirus infection with early interventions. Epidemiological studies have employed modeling to unravel knowledge that transformed the lives of families, communities, nations and the entire globe. The study established the stability of both disease free and endemic equilibria. Stability occurs when the reproduction number, R0, is less than unity for both disease free and endemic equilibrium points. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point of the model is established whenever the basic reproduction number R0 is less than or equal to unity. The reproduction number is also shown to be directly related to the transmission probability (β), rate at which latently infected individuals join the infected class (δ) and rate of recruitment (Λ). It is inversely related to natural death rate (μ), rate of early treatment (τ1), rate of hospitalization of infected individuals (θ) and Covid-induced death rate (σ). The analytical results established are confirmed by numerical simulation of the model.

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