scholarly journals THE EFFECTS OF WEATHER ON CRIME RATES IN MALAYSIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muzafar Shah Habibullah
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Criminal Activity ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run

This study estimates the effects of temperature and rainfall on the prevalence of criminal activity in Malaysia. The analysis is based on annual data for the period 1973-2009, on temperature, rainfall and crime rates – total crime, violent and property crime. By using the generalized one-step error-correction model, we examine the short-run and long-run dynamics between crime rates with varying temperatures and rainfall in Malaysia. Our results suggest that there is long-run relationship between total crime and property crimes with weather in Malaysia. The long-run coefficients indicate a positive impact of temperature (hot weather) on criminal activity. Our results imply that the law enforcement would have a better understanding of how the weather affects crime and a chance for the authorities to better prepare their departments during weather conditions that influence certain criminal activities.Keywords: Crime; Temperature; Rainfall; Generalized error-correction model; Malaysia.

scholarly journals Oil Consumption in Transport and Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Cameroon

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 409
Author(s):  
Youssouf Nvuh Njoya ◽  
Mouhamed Mbouandi Njikam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run

This paper focuses on casting light on the causal relationship between oil consumption in transport and economic growth in Cameroon. This paper uses an annual data covering the period 1975-2014, which is a five-step modern time series techniques. They include the Unit root tests, co-integration analysis, and Granger-causality based on error correction model. As a robustness test, we made use of the impulse response function and variance decomposition to portray the correlations between variables. The main result highlighted in the present paper point out the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between oil consumption in transport and economic growth. The error correction model shows that an estimated 1% increase in economic growth causes a rise in oil consumption in transport by 1.29 % in the long run. Another results show that there exists bidirectional causality in the long-run relationship and there was no causality in the short-run relationship at the 5% level of significance. The decomposition of the variance and impulse response function indicates a dissymmetric of the variance of the prediction error and the dynamic properties of the system. This study provides a basis for the discussion of energy consumption in transport policies in order to maintain a sustainable economic growth in Cameroon.

The Methodology of Cointegration

1992 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 237-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathaniel Beck
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Political Attitudes ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Economic Circumstance ◽  
Economics Department ◽  
Technical Area

It is hardly surprising that I applaud the fine work of both Durr and Ostrom and Smith. I am on record in favor of the utility of the error correction model (e.g., Beck 1985) and it is impossible to obtain a visa to visit the economics department at UCSD without swearing an oath of loyalty to the methodology of cointegration. The two works here are notable for their methodological sophistication, their exposition of a relatively unknown and highly technical area, and, most important, their substantive contributions. Both articles show that political attitudes (approval and policy mood) adjust, in the long run, to changes in objective and subjective economic circumstance. Both articles are good examples of the synergy of methods and theory, since it is the methodology of cointegration that leads to this type of theorizing, and this type of theorizing can most easily be tested in the context of cointegration or error correction.

scholarly journals An application of the error correction model in analyzing the long run equilibrium between Ghana’s exports and imports

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 57-62
Author(s):  
Henry de-Graft Acquah ◽  
Joyce De-Graft Acquah
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Coefficient ◽  
Equilibrium Relation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Step Procedure ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

This study investigates the long-run relationship between Ghana’s exports and imports for the period of 1948 to 2012. Using the Engle Granger two-step procedure we find that Ghana’s exports and imports are cointegrated. However, the slope coefficients from the cointegration equations were not statistically equal to 1. Furthermore, application of the error correction model reveals that 1% increase in the imports will significantly result in 0.56% increase in exports, suggesting that the exports’ responsiveness to imports is low. The estimated error correction coefficient suggests that 32% of the deviation from the long run equilibrium relation is eliminated, leaving 68% to persist into the next period. These results suggest persistence in the trade deficit and an option of curbing the deficit is to re-order the relationship between imports and exports with a view to reducing imports demand. These results imply that though Ghana’s past macroeconomic policies have been effective in bringing its imports and exports into a long run equilibrium, it is yet to satisfy the sufficient condition for sustainability of foreign deficit.

scholarly journals The dynamic effect of exchange-rate volatility on Turkish exports: Parsimonious error-correction model approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 429-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erdal Demirhan ◽  
Banu Demirhan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Dynamic Effect ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Short Run

This paper aims to investigate the effect of exchange-rate stability on real export volume in Turkey, using monthly data for the period February 2001 to January 2010. The Johansen multivariate cointegration method and the parsimonious error-correction model are applied to determine long-run and short-run relationships between real export volume and its determinants. In this study, the conditional variance of the GARCH (1, 1) model is taken as a proxy for exchange-rate stability, and generalized impulse-response functions and variance-decomposition analyses are applied to analyze the dynamic effects of variables on real export volume. The empirical findings suggest that exchangerate stability has a significant positive effect on real export volume, both in the short and the long run.

scholarly journals Price Transmission and Factors Influencing the Price of Onions in Tanzania

2020 ◽  
pp. 67-76
Author(s):  
Yohana James Mgale
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Adjustment Cost ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This article analyzes the transmission of prices between marketing agents and the factors affecting onion prices at the consumer level. The Error Correction Model-Engle Granger (ECM-EG) was used to test the price transmission by including the impact of the rise and fall of producer, wholesale and retail prices in past periods. The Error Correction Model (ECM) was applied to the factors affecting onion prices. The test results showed that price transmission was asymmetrical in the short and long-run. With regard to factors, the results show that consumer price in the short-run was influenced by wholesale prices, producer prices and the price of fuel while in the long-run it was influenced by wholesale prices, producer price, price of fuel and consumer prices in the previous period (t-1). These results suggest the existence of a short-term adjustment cost and a long-term market power which distorts price transmission.

Exports, financial development and economic growth in Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Mohammad Mafizur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the relationship between exports, financial development and economic growth in case of Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach – The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction model are applied to test the long-run and short-run relationships, respectively. The direction of causality between the variables is investigated by the vector error correction model Granger causality test and robustness of causality analysis is tested by applying innovative accounting approach. Findings – The analysis confirms cointegration for the long-run relation between exports, economic growth and financial development in case of Pakistan. The results indicate that economic growth and financial development spur exports growth in Pakistan. The causality analysis reveals feedback hypothesis that exists between financial development and economic growth, financial development and exports, and, exports and economic growth. Originality/value – This study provides new insights for policy makers to sustain exports growth by stimulating economic growth and developing financial sector in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Integration Rice Price And Farmers Welfare With Error Correction Model Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 221-228
Author(s):  
Yogi Makbul
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Policy Intervention ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
Support Policy

This research analyzes the short- and long-term influence of rice prices on the welfare of Indonesian farmers using an error correction model. Drawing upon data from Indonesia's Central Bureau of Statistics, it reveals that rice prices exert significant positive short-run effects and no significant long-run influence on farmers' welfare. These findings extend or refine results from earlier studies that lack the time series perspective of our research. They also support policy intervention by the Indonesian government to increase farmers' welfare and assure food supply.  

scholarly journals PENURUNAN PAJAK EKSPOR DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP EKSPOR MINYAK KELAPA SAWIT INDONESIA KE CINA (PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL)

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-72
Author(s):  
Ernawati Munadi
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Export Duty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World

The palm oil Industry is an important sector in the Indonesian economiy as it is one of the country’s major export earners as well as food source for her population.Indonesia is the world second largest producer of palm oil after Malaysia, accounting for about 34% OF The  world production in the year 2006. Indonesia  is also the largest consumer of palm oil in the developing economies, in 2006. Indonesia consumed a total of 5.5 mn tonnes of palm oil. Of this amount 76.75% is comprised of  frying oil. About 55% of the production is exported in the form of crude palm oil mainly to Asian countries primarily to India and China and  Eruropean countries. Debate on Indonesia’s palm oil policy was stimulated by the sharp increase in cooking oil prices in 1994-1995 which resulted in the introduction of export tax rate on palm oil in order to maintain a certain level of domestic consumption.Using annual data for the period 1969-2006, an econometric  approach  mainly the error correction model. Was employed  in this study This paper examines the impacts of reduction in export duty onthe import demand of Indonesian palm oil to China. The findings indicate  that the  quantity of palm oil exported to China is significantly influenced by changes in the soybean oil price, world palm oil price, Industrial Production Index (IPI) exchange rate  and lagged of export demand of Indonesian palm oil to China by one year with the elasticity of 1,49, 1.47,0.24, 0.59, and 0.79, respectively. The coefficients for long run variables presented by the ECM are jointly not equal to zero.This result suggests that as a group, the long run variable (ECM) have influenced the changes in the export demand to China which is indicated by the significance of the coefficient. The simulation results suggest that the direct impact of reduction of export duty would increase the quantity exported to China. The Indonesia export to China from 95.36 thousand tones to 118,23 thousand tones.

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