Subjective and Objective Insecurity in Spanish Cities

This article related crime rates to social risk factors and to the feeling of insecurity in Spain. The first finding of this study, financed by National I + D Plan CSO2016-77549-P, AEI-FEDER, was the direct relation between crime rates and some sociodemographic factors such as population, unemployment, urban land area, and hotel occupancy, based on the question of which social risk factors correlate to crime rates. The second finding was that social factors drive citizens’ feelings of insecurity, according to whether feelings of insecurity are linked to crime rates or perceived risk factors. The research was based on a quantitative methodology, using two data sources: reworked official statistics treated by HJ-Biplot analysis; a 2019 CATI survey with N = 3904, sample error between 5.2% and 3.7% according to territory, 95% confidence level. The main conceptual conclusion of the study was the link between well-being and security. The main methodological contribution was the application of HJ-Biplot analysis to the social sciences.

More crime in cities? On the scaling laws of crime and the inadequacy of per capita rankings—a cross-country study

Crime rates per capita are used virtually everywhere to rank and compare cities. However, their usage relies on a strong linear assumption that crime increases at the same pace as the number of people in a region. In this paper, we demonstrate that using per capita rates to rank cities can produce substantially different rankings from rankings adjusted for population size. We analyze the population–crime relationship in cities across 12 countries and assess the impact of per capita measurements on crime analyses, depending on the type of offense. In most countries, we find that theft increases superlinearly with population size, whereas burglary increases linearly. Our results reveal that per capita rankings can differ from population-adjusted rankings such that they disagree in approximately half of the top 10 most dangerous cities in the data analyzed here. Hence, we advise caution when using crime rates per capita to rank cities and recommend evaluating the linear plausibility before doing so.

Motivated reasoning, fast and slow

Are people more likely to (mis)interpret information so that it aligns with their ideological identity when relying on feelings compared to when engaging in analytical thinking? Or is it the other way around: Does deliberation increase the propensity to (mis)interpret information to confirm existing political views? In a behavioral experiment, participants (n = 1207, Swedish sample) assessed numerical information concerning the effects of gender quotas and immigration either under time pressure or under no time pressure. To measure trait differences in cognitive sophistication, we also collected data on numeric ability. We found clear evidence of motivated reasoning when assessing both the effects of gender quotas on companies’ financial results and the effect of refugee intake on crime rates. Subjects who prioritized equality over liberty on the labor market were 13 percentage points less likely to correctly assess numerical information depicting that companies that used gender quotas when hiring made less profit. Subjects who classified themselves as ‘Swedes’ rather than ‘World citizens’ were 14 percentage points less likely to correctly assess numerical information depicting that crime rates decreased following immigration. Time pressure did not affect the likelihood to engage in motivated reasoning, while subjects with higher numeric ability were less likely to engage in motivated reasoning when analyzing information concerning refugee intake, but more likely to engage in motivated reasoning when analyzing information regarding the effect of gender quotas. Together these results indicate that motivated reasoning is primarily driven by individual differences in analytical thinking at the trait level and not by situational factors such as time pressure, and that whether motivated reasoning is primarily driven by analysis or feelings depends on the topic at hand.

Crime rates and contextual characteristics: a case study in Connecticut, USA

There is a long-standing interest in the spatial relationship between contextual characteristics and crime rates in the U.S. since such a relationship allows police and stakeholders to design crime prevention programs to better target areas at risk for crime. The objective of this research is to examine the relationships between violent/property crime rates and contextual characteristics at the county-subdivision level in the State of Connecticut. The analysis shows that predictors such as population density, type of housing, education, poverty, and racial/ethnic diversity are significantly associated with violent and property crime rates. The results are discussed in the context of different crime hypotheses, which can explain spatial variations in crime rates. Most importantly, the association between crime rates and the explanatory variables in this study significantly varied over space, highlighting that different crime prevention policies/programs should be implemented in different county subdivisions in Connecticut.

Syrian Refugee Crisis in Turkey: Is Migration from Syria Bad for Turkey’s demographic and economic structure?

The main objective of this paper is to understand whether international migration is detrimental for the host country or not by using the example of Turkey. This paper primarily claims that refugees are beneficial for the host country Turkey as they stimulate the economy while integrating into the society they live in and taking the jobs that native people aren't enthusiastic about doing. As a result, they are easing the burden on the insurance system. From a demographical and a sociological perspective, they are increasing the rate of population in territories of Turkey where the fertility rate has declined. However, some economists and sociologists argue those claims with some counterarguments, which this paper is refuting. They claim that refugees have a terrible influence on Turkey’s economy and the country's wellbeing by overburdening schools and healthcare facilities, boosting the crime rates, spreading disease, and heating the wage competition.

Club convergence of crime rates in the United States of America

Purpose The cyclical behavior of US crime rates reflects the dynamics of crime in the country. This paper aims to investigate the US's club convergence of crime rates to provide insights into whether the crime rates increased or decreased over time. The paper also analyzes the factors influencing the probability of states converging to a particular convergence club of crime. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on balanced panel data from all 50 states and the district of Columbia on violent and property crime rates covering 1976–2019. This yields a cross-state panel of 2,244 observations with 55 time periods and 51 groups. In addition, the author used a club clustering procedure to investigate the convergence hypothesis in the study. Findings The empirical results support population convergence of violent crime rates. However, the evidence that supports population convergence of property crime rates in the study is not found. Further analysis using the club clustering procedure shows that property crime rates converge into three clubs. The existence of club convergence in property crime rates means that the variation in the property crime rates tends to narrow among the states within each of the clubs identified in the study. Analysis based on an ordered probit model identifies economic, geographic and human capital factors that significantly drive the state's convergence club membership. Practical implications The central policy insight from these results is that crime rates grow slowly over time, as evident by the convergence of violent crime and club convergence of property crime in the study. Moreover, the existence of club convergence of property crime is an indication that policies to mitigate property crime might need to target states within each club. This includes the efforts to use state rather than national crime-fighting policies. Social implications As crimes are committed at the local level, this study's primary limitation is the lack of community-level data on crime and other factors considered. Analysis based on community-level data might provide a better representation of crime dynamics. However, the author hopes to consider this as less aggregated data are available to use in future research. Originality/value The paper provides new insights into the convergence of crime rates using the club convergence procedure in the USA. This is considered an improvement to the methods used in the previous studies.

The Condition of Security of Gated Communities under Private Governance: Findings from Residents’ Experiences and Opinions

<p>The number of gated communities is rapidly increasing worldwide. Although security has always been one of the most appealing features of gated communities, studies show that there is no significant difference in crime rates between gated communities and surrounding non-gated neighbourhoods. How safe are gated communities? How effective are the enhanced security measures of gated communities in preventing crime? Are residents responsible for the condition of security in gated communities? All these questions need to be addressed to improve the safety and security of residents of gated communities. The study aims to examine the condition of security of gated communities by drawing on the experiences and opinions of residents. It used a quantitative approach, with a descriptive methodology. Surveys were distributed to residents of seven sample gated communities in Auckland. Survey results were analysed by descriptive statistics and cross-tabulations. In conclusion, the study found that the condition of security of Auckland gated communities is generally good as experienced and perceived by surveyed residents. ‘Security’ was regarded as one of the most significant factors for moving into a gated community. The majority of residents felt safe and secure both inside the property and within the community, and believed that their community was experiencing less crime than surrounding neighbourhoods. The study also found that the building manager, rather than the Owners’ Committee or the Body Corporate secretary, was identified as the most significant agent in the management of security related issues. The building manager was heavily relied by both residents and members of the Owners’ Committee. The study has presented basic findings about gated communities in the light of security and private governance. However, more research is needed to obtain sufficient data to discover the elements of successful crime prevention for gated communities.</p>

The Condition of Security of Gated Communities under Private Governance: Findings from Residents’ Experiences and Opinions

<p>The number of gated communities is rapidly increasing worldwide. Although security has always been one of the most appealing features of gated communities, studies show that there is no significant difference in crime rates between gated communities and surrounding non-gated neighbourhoods. How safe are gated communities? How effective are the enhanced security measures of gated communities in preventing crime? Are residents responsible for the condition of security in gated communities? All these questions need to be addressed to improve the safety and security of residents of gated communities. The study aims to examine the condition of security of gated communities by drawing on the experiences and opinions of residents. It used a quantitative approach, with a descriptive methodology. Surveys were distributed to residents of seven sample gated communities in Auckland. Survey results were analysed by descriptive statistics and cross-tabulations. In conclusion, the study found that the condition of security of Auckland gated communities is generally good as experienced and perceived by surveyed residents. ‘Security’ was regarded as one of the most significant factors for moving into a gated community. The majority of residents felt safe and secure both inside the property and within the community, and believed that their community was experiencing less crime than surrounding neighbourhoods. The study also found that the building manager, rather than the Owners’ Committee or the Body Corporate secretary, was identified as the most significant agent in the management of security related issues. The building manager was heavily relied by both residents and members of the Owners’ Committee. The study has presented basic findings about gated communities in the light of security and private governance. However, more research is needed to obtain sufficient data to discover the elements of successful crime prevention for gated communities.</p>

Count Regression Models for Analyzing Crime Rates in The East Java Province

Crime rate is the number of reported crimes divided by total population. Several factors could contribute the variability of crime rates among areas. This study aims to model the relationship between crime rates among regencies and cities in the East Java Province (Indonesia) and some potentially explanatory variables based on Statistics Indonesia publication in 2020. The crime rate in the East Java Province was consistently at the top three after DKI Jakarta and North Sumatra during 2017 to 2019. Therefore, it is interesting for us to study further about the crime rate in the East Java. Our preliminary analysis indicates that there is an overdispersion in our sample data. To overcome the overdispersion, we fit Generalized Poisson and Negative Binomial regression. The ratio of deviance and degree of freedom based on Negative Binomial is slightly smaller (1.38) than Generalized Poisson (1.99). The results indicate that Negative Binomial and Generalized Poisson regression, compared to standard Poisson regression, are relatively fit to model our crime rate data. Some factors which contribute significantly (α=0.05) for the crime rate in the East Java Province under Negative Binomial as well as Generalized Poisson regression are percentage of poor people, number of households, unemployment rate, and percentage of expenditure.

Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning for Weapon Identification in Security Systems

As crime rates rise at large events and possibly lonely places, security is always a top concern in every field. A wide range of issues may be solved with the use of computer vision, including anomalous detection and monitoring. Intelligence monitoring is becoming more dependent on video surveillance systems that can recognise and analyse scene and anomaly occurrences. Using SSD and Faster RCNN techniques, this paper provides automated gun (or weapon) identification. Use of two different kinds of datasets is included in the proposed approach. As opposed to the first dataset, the second one comprises pictures that have been manually tagged. However, the trade-off between speed and precision in real-world situations determines whether or not each method will be useful.