scholarly journals Trans-National Equitable Strategies of Vaccine Distribution during the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dario Domingo ◽  
Stanislav Biber ◽  
Gabriele Dian ◽  
Patrick Dorey ◽  
Kays Haddad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Competitive Game ◽  
The Social ◽  
Vaccine Distribution ◽  
Vaccine Availability ◽  
Allocation Strategies

In this report we propose a modelling framework to analyse and optimise worldwide vaccine allocation strategies, with reference to the current COVID-19 pandemic. We model epidemiological transmission and vaccination in a system of M interacting countries, quantifying the social and economic costs incurred by each country due to the pandemic and the country's vaccination rate. Under constraints over global vaccine availability, we analyse best strategies of vaccine allocation: either with the aim of minimising global costs, or by taking the perspective of a competitive game where each country aims to minimise its own cost. We distinguish between the financial capabilities of different countries, and extend our framework to allow for vaccine donation from wealthier to poorer countries. Numerical simulations allow us to compare the best strategies of the above two approaches, and to analyse circumstances under which vaccine donation simultaneously benefits both donating and receiving countries.

scholarly journals Trans-National Equitable Strategies of Vaccine Distribution during the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dario Domingo ◽  
Stanislaw Biber ◽  
Gabriele Dian ◽  
Patrick Dorey ◽  
Kays Haddad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Competitive Game ◽  
The Social ◽  
Vaccine Distribution ◽  
Vaccine Availability ◽  
Allocation Strategies

In this report we propose a modelling framework to analyse and optimise worldwide vaccine allocation strategies, with reference to the current COVID-19 pandemic. We model epidemiological transmission and vaccination in a system of M interacting countries, quantifying the social and economic costs incurred by each country due to the pandemic and the country's vaccination rate. Under constraints over global vaccine availability, we analyse best strategies of vaccine allocation: either with the aim of minimising global costs, or by taking the perspective of a competitive game where each country aims to minimise its own cost. We distinguish between the financial capabilities of different countries, and extend our framework to allow for vaccine donation from wealthier to poorer countries. Numerical simulations allow us to compare the best strategies of the above two approaches, and to analyse circumstances under which vaccine donation simultaneously benefits both donating and receiving countries.

scholarly journals Vaccine nationalism and the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline E Wagner ◽  
Chadi M. Saad-Roy ◽  
Sinead E. Morris ◽  
Rachel E. Baker ◽  
Michael J Mina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Evolutionary Potential ◽  
High Return ◽  
Dynamics And Control ◽  
Antigenic Evolution ◽  
Combined Infection ◽  
Vaccine Distribution ◽  
Vaccine Availability ◽  
And Control

Vaccines provide powerful tools to mitigate the enormous public health and economic costs that the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic continues to exert globally, yet vaccine distribution remains unequal between countries. To examine the potential epidemiological and evolutionary impacts of 'vaccine nationalism', we extend previous models to include simple scenarios of stockpiling. In general, we find that stockpiling vaccines by countries with high availability leads to large increases in infections in countries with low vaccine availability, the magnitude of which depends on the strength and duration of natural and vaccinal immunity. Additionally, a number of subtleties arise when the populations and transmission rates in each country differ depending on evolutionary assumptions and vaccine availability. Furthermore, the movement of infected individuals between countries combined with the possibility of increases in viral transmissibility may greatly magnify local and combined infection numbers, suggesting that countries with high vaccine availability must invest in surveillance strategies to prevent case importation. Dose-sharing is likely a high-return strategy because equitable allocation brings non-linear benefits and also alleviates costs of surveillance (e.g. border testing, genomic surveillance) in settings where doses are sufficient to maintain cases at low numbers. Across a range of immunological scenarios, we find that vaccine sharing is also a powerful tool to decrease the potential for antigenic evolution, especially if infections after the waning of natural immunity contribute most to evolutionary potential. Overall, our results stress the importance of equitable global vaccine distribution.

scholarly journals Vaccine nationalism and the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2

Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. e
Author(s):  
Caroline E. Wagner ◽  
Chadi M. Saad-Roy ◽  
Sinead E. Morris ◽  
Rachel E. Baker ◽  
Michael J. Mina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Evolutionary Potential ◽  
Novel Variants ◽  
Dynamics And Control ◽  
Antigenic Evolution ◽  
Vaccine Distribution ◽  
Vaccine Availability ◽  
And Control ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Vaccines provide powerful tools to mitigate the enormous public health and economic costs that the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic continues to exert globally, yet vaccine distribution remains unequal among countries. To examine the potential epidemiological and evolutionary impacts of ‘vaccine nationalism’, we extend previous models to include simple scenarios of stockpiling between two regions. In general, when vaccines are widely available and the immunity they confer is robust, sharing doses minimizes total cases across regions. A number of subtleties arise when the populations and transmission rates in each region differ, depending on evolutionary assumptions and vaccine availability. When the waning of natural immunity contributes most to evolutionary potential, sustained transmission in low access regions results in an increased potential for antigenic evolution, which may result in the emergence of novel variants that affect epidemiological characteristics globally. Overall, our results stress the importance of rapid equitable vaccine distribution for global control of the pandemic.

scholarly journals IMPLEMENTASI KEBIJAKAN SISTEM TRANSPORTASI DARAT DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP KESEJAHTERAAN SOSIAL DI JAKARTA

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Muh Kadarisman ◽  
Aang Gunawan ◽  
Ismiyati Ismiyati
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Qualitative Method ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Transportation System ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Public Welfare ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
The Social ◽  
Transportation Development

Transportation is the backbone in creating social welfare in Jakarta. Therefore, if there are problems in the transportation system, it will have an impact on the smooth traffic flow and will ultimately hamper the achievement of public welfare. This study used a descriptive-qualitative method. This study refers to the theory proposed by Anderson (in Tachjan, 2006: 23) and Sarana, et al (2009: 9). The results of the study are as follows. Policy implementation transportation system in Jakarta has been able to improve the social welfare of most citizens, which means some people have to feel and enjoy the outcome of transportation development  in Jakarta. However, others have not optimally felt the positive impact of the policy. Even, it is perceived negatively; such as traffic jams which are almost evenly distributed throughout Jakarta causing high air pollution, hampered economic activity and generated high economic costs that social welfare was also weakened. This is reinforced by the increasing poverty rate in 2014 that reached 393,980 people thousand compared to previous years.

Politics and the Environment: Nonlinear Instabilities Dominate

1994 ◽  
Vol 88 (2) ◽  
pp. 292-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Courtney Brown
Keyword(s):  
Social Factors ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Longitudinal Change ◽  
Environmental Concerns ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
White House ◽  
Systems Model ◽  
The Social

This analysis investigates a formal nonlinear systems model characterizing longitudinal change in the environment as a function of oscillating partisan control of the White House. It is assumed that one political party will tend to favor help for the environment despite some economic costs, whereas the other party will generally favor economic growth over environmental concerns. These policy changes affect the environment interactively with both public concern for particular environmental problems and the economic costs relating to environmental repair. This interaction with policy changes causes a disruption in the continuously evolving balance between the social factors that damage the environment and the environment's own ability to recover. The disruptive potential to the environment is considerably ameliorated with a reduction in the electoral cycling.

Uganda: The Social and Economic Costs of Conflict

2000 ◽  
pp. 240-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Mary Matovu ◽  
Frances Stewart
Keyword(s):  
Economic Costs ◽  
The Social

A Social Ontology for Integrating Security and Software Engineering

2007 ◽  
pp. 70-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Yu ◽  
L. Liu ◽  
J. Mylopoulous
Keyword(s):  
Software Engineering ◽  
Social Ontology ◽  
Software Systems ◽  
Engineering Process ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
The Core ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
Software Engineering Process

As software becomes more and more entrenched in everyday life in today’s society, security looms large as an unsolved problem. Despite advances in security mecha-nisms and technologies, most software systems in the world remain precarious and vulnerable. There is now widespread recognition that security cannot be achieved by technology alone. All software systems are ultimately embedded in some human social environment. The effectiveness of the system depends very much on the forces in that environment. Yet there are few systematic techniques for treating the social context of security together with technical system design in an integral way. In this chapter, we argue that a social ontology at the core of a requirements engineering process can be the basis for integrating security into a requirements driven software engineering process. We describe the i* agent-oriented modelling framework and show how it can be used to model and reason about security concerns and responses. A smart card example is used to illustrate. Future directions for a social paradigm for security and software engineering are discussed.

scholarly journals An approach for a sustainable decision-making in product portfolio design of dairy supply chain in terms of environmental, economic and social criteria

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisaveta Georgieva Kirilova ◽  
Natasha Vaklieva-Bancheva ◽  
Rayka Vladova ◽  
Tatyana Petrova ◽  
Boyan Ivanov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Environmental Economic ◽  
Dairy Products ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Environmental Constraints ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Environment Impact ◽  
The Social

Abstract The production of dairy products is related to water and energy costs and generation of large amounts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and wastewater. This has a direct bearing on the reduction of natural resources, the negative impact on the environment as well as the rise of social concerns due to increased product costs, pollution, etc. Full sustainability of this type of systems can be achieved by optimizing all activities across the chain of raw materials, through production to customers while considering all aspects of sustainability - environmental, economic and social. The study proposes a multi-objective modelling approach for optimal design of three-echelon supply chain (SC) for production of dairy products according to different recipes where all aspects of sustainability are taken into consideration. The approach was implemented on a real case study from Bulgaria. Four mix integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) optimization models were defined without and with social impact consideration. They are solved using General Algebriac Modeling System (GAMS) software. The obtained results have shown how the social impact assessment affects the obtained optimal products portfolios and profits. In these cases, varying the values of environmental constraints also affect the products portfolios and profits without affect the social costs. The stricter constraints on the environment impact leads to higher economic costs and lower profits, and conversely, high values of environmental constraints result in higher profits and lower economic costs. The obtained solutions can be used in the decision-making process to achieve social sustainability of the considered dairy supply chain.

scholarly journals Optimizing the spatio-temporal allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Chadi Lemaitre ◽  
Damiano Pasetto ◽  
Mario Zanon ◽  
Enrico Bertuzzo ◽  
Lorenzo Mari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Supply And Distribution ◽  
Simple Alternative ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Vaccine Distribution ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
Allocation Strategies

While SARS-CoV-2 vaccine distribution campaigns are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of limited supplies. We wonder whether suitable spatial allocation strategies might significantly improve a campaign's efficacy in averting damaging outcomes. To that end, we address the problem of optimal control of COVID-19 vaccinations in a country-wide geographic and epidemiological context characterized by strong spatial heterogeneities in transmission rate and disease history. We seek the vaccine allocation strategies in space and time that minimize the number of infections in a prescribed time horizon. We examine scenarios of unfolding disease transmission across the 107 provinces of Italy, from January to April 2021, generated by a spatially explicit compartmental COVID-19 model tailored to the Italian geographic and epidemiological context. We develop a novel optimal control framework to derive optimal vaccination strategies given the epidemiological projections and constraints on vaccine supply and distribution logistic. Optimal schemes significantly outperform simple alternative allocation strategies based on incidence, population distribution, or prevalence of susceptibles in each province. Our results suggest that the complex interplay between the mobility network and the spatial heterogeneities imply highly non-trivial prioritization of local vaccination campaigns. The extent of the overall improvements in the objectives grants further inquiry aimed at refining other possibly relevant factors so far neglected. Our work thus provides a proof-of-concept of the potential of optimal control for complex and heterogeneous epidemiological contexts at country, and possibly global, scales.

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