scholarly journals Crude Oil Price, Interest Rate and Unemployment Nexus in Nigeria: An Application of Toda and Yamamoto Long-Run Causality Procedure

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Toda And Yamamoto

scholarly journals Econometric Analysis of Determinants of Real Effective Exchange Rate in Nigeria (1960-2015)

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waheed Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Abstract This study investigates the determinants of real effective exchange rate in Nigeria for the period between 1960 and 2015 using the vector error correction mechanism to separate long run from the short run fundamentals. The findings from the regression estimates revealed that; terms of trade, openness of the economy, net capital inflow and total government expenditure were the major long run determinants of real effective exchange rate in the country while variables such as; broad money supply (M2), nominal effective exchange rate, structural adjustment program dummy, June 12 crisis and change to civil rule dummies were revealed as the major short run determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria between 1960 and 2015. The study concludes by recommending that since the major variable of terms of trade (crude oil price) is out of the government control, the effect of shocks due to the fluctuations of crude oil price can be minimized by shifting the economy from a mono-product nation and diversify the economy to increase productive capacity. Also, the change to civil rule dummy used in the study revealed that the system has not been friendly with the country’s real effective exchange rate, thus needing to review the system and bringing out all negative activities there in to ensure Nigeria’s currency appreciation. Guided openness is also suggested to avert the danger that unguided trade liberalization may bring into the country.

scholarly journals Impact of FDI inflow, crude oil prices, and economic growth on CO2 emission in Tunisia: Symmetric and asymmetric analysis through ARDL and NARDL approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Tarek Ghazouani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run

This study explores the symmetric and asymmetric impact of real GDP per capita, FDI inflow, and crude oil price on CO2 emission in Tunisia for the 1972–2016 period. Using the cointegration tests, namely ARDL and NARDL bound test, the results show that the variables are associated in a long run relationship. Long run estimates from both approach confirms the validity of ECK hypothesis for Tunisia. Symmetric analysis reveals that economic growth and the price of crude oil adversely affect the environment, in contrast to FDI inflows that reduce CO2 emissions in the long run. Whereas the asymmetric analysis show that increase in crude oil price harm the environment and decrease in crude oil price have positive repercussions on the environment. The causality analysis suggests that a bilateral link exists between economic growth and carbon emissions and a one-way causality ranges from FDI inflows and crude oil prices to carbon emissions. Thus, some policy recommendations have been formulated to help Tunisia reduce carbon emissions and support economic development.

scholarly journals Impact of Foreign Exchange Reserve, Exchange Rate and Crude Oil Price on Dhaka Stock Exchange Index: An Empirical Evidence from Vector Error Correction Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 134-143
Author(s):  
Uttam Golder ◽  
Md. Nazrul Islam ◽  
Md. Shahidullah Kayser
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserve ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run

The supreme thrust of the present analysis is to explore the influences of foreign exchange reserve, exchange rate, and crude oil price on the stock index of the Dhaka stock exchange (DSE) of Bangladesh. Moreover, this study evaluates the identity of any unpremeditated relationship among the variables from the viewpoint of an emerging country like Bangladesh. Through using monthly time-series data, this study tries to discover the evidence of a long-run affiliation among the variables by using Johansen’s Cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Besides, the Granger Causality technique is introduced to examine the casualty among variables where the empirical results show a causal linkage between the Dhaka stock exchange index, foreign exchange reserve, and exchange rate, moving only in one way from Dhaka stock exchange index to foreign exchange reserve and exchange rate. In contrast, no causal link was identified between Dhaka stock exchange indexes and crude oil prices. Lastly, Impulse Response Function suggests a permanent effect of all selected macroeconomic factors on the Dhaka stock exchange index in the long run and Variance Decomposition Analysis settles that, the reform in Dhaka stock exchange index can be caused by the innovation in foreign exchange reserve, exchange rate, and crude oil price.

scholarly journals PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DAN INDEKS SAHAM INTERNASIONAL TERHADAP INDEKS SAHAM JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX (JII)

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 2381
Author(s):  
Devi Rahmiyanti ◽  
Bayu Arie Fianto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run

This study investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables and international stock index on the stock index Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) using monthly data over period January 2013 to December, 2018. Macroeconomic variables used in this study are inflation, exchange rate, international crude oil price, World Gold Price and for the international stock index using Dow Jones Islamic Market. The study employs the eror correction model (ECM). The empirical result reveal that there is co-integration between the four macroeconomic variables, one international stock index and stock index in Jakarta Islamic Index indicating long run equilibirium relationship. Furhther, the result reveal that with significancy 0,5% only exchange rate, international crude oil price, world gold price had significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index while inflation and Dow jones Islamic Market did not have a significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index.Keywords: The stock Index, the Jakarta Islamic Index, the macroeconomic variables

scholarly journals Structural Effect of Oil Price Shocks and Food Importation on Economic Growth in Nigeria Using SVAR Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sani Abdulrahman Bala ◽  
Ali Alhassan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Svar Model ◽  
Food Imports

The study empirically examines the effect of oil price shocks and food importation on economic growth in Nigeria along with two control variables i.e. exchange rate and inflation using Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Model covering the period of 1970 to 2015. The result from SVAR short-run pattern and long-run pattern indicate that GDP has recently been affected by all variables in the model. More also, it indicates a significant permanent effect of crude oil price shocks and food imports on economic growth, while the result further indicates a transitory effect of exchange rate and inflation on economic growth. For significant t-value of the long run SVAR estimate matrix, confirms long effect of crude oil price shocks, food imports, exchange rate and inflation on economic growth in Nigeria. The results from structural response indicate that crude oil have high positive impact on GDP at the initial period and negative impact at the end of the period. Furthermore, food imports have high negative effect on GDP, while GDP response negatively to exchange rate and inflation rate from the period. The result from the structural decompositions indicates that crude oil price and food imports and exchange rate contribute more variability to GDP, while inflation contribute less variability in explaining the variation of GDP in Nigeria. The study recommends that government should come up with a policy that will focus on alternative sources of government revenue by investing more in real sectors especially agriculture in order to withstand vicissitudes of oil shocks in future.

scholarly journals CRUDE OIL PRICE, STOCK PRICE AND SOME SELECTED MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS: AN IMPLICATION ON THE GROWTH OF NIGERIAN ECONOMY

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Idowu Paul Olanitori ◽  
Olaiya Hawley Ademulegun ◽  
Olateru Olagbegi Adeparubi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run

Since the first oil price oscillation in 1973s, macroeconomists have viewed sharp measures in the price of oil are generally as an important source of economic vacillations. The go-slow of economic activities has important implications for economic agents and markets. Therefore, this paper models and forecasts the crude oil price, stock price and selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. A model predicated on the Keynesian model using yearly data between 1986 and 2016 and analysed using VECM and GARCH approaches. The findings showed that there is long run relationship through Vector Error Correction Model which was achieved well in forecasting the selected macroeconomic variables while the volatility in crude oil price and stock price causes by external and internal forces also captured by General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskadasticity. The long run negative effect of macroeconomic variable on economy growth can be controlled by making strong fiscal and monetary policies. The 2016 recession was reinforced by all share index and exchange rate as the path of growth declined over the forecast horizon. Further checks carried out using normality test validated the choice of this work. The paper concludes that monetary and exchange rate policy consistency are decisive for smoothening business rotation vacillations and promoting market stability. JEL: L10; E30 <p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/edu_01/0851/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

scholarly journals Investigating the Asymmetry Effects of Crude Oil Price on Renewable Energy Consumption in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pritish Sahu ◽  
Sakiru Adebola Solarin ◽  
Usama Al-mulali ◽  
Ilhan Ozturk
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Abstract The reduction in oil prices might make crude oil a cheaper alternative to renewable energy. Given this, the present paper examines the effect of fluctuation of oil prices on the use of renewable energy in the United States during the period 1970–2019. We constructed two nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) models to examine the effect of the positive and negative oil prices shocks on the use of renewable energy in the US. The renewable energy consumption is taken as the dependent variable and GDP, Brent crude prices, population density, trade openness and price index as independent variables. The result revealed that the rise in crude oil price, GDP and population density will increase renewable energy use in the short run and in the long run as well. Moreover, the study finds that any decrease in oil prices will decrease renewable energy use in the short run and its effect will eventually diminish in the long run.

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