Nomograms Involving HER2 for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Early Gastric Cancer

Objective: We aimed to establish a nomogram for predicting lymph node metastasis in early gastric cancer (EGC) involving human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2).Methods: We collected clinicopathological data of patients with EGC who underwent radical gastrectomy and D2 lymphadenectomy at Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine between January 2012 and August 2018. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to examine the relationship between lymph node metastasis and clinicopathological features. A nomogram was constructed based on a multivariate prediction model. Internal validation from the training set was performed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration plots to evaluate discrimination and calibration, respectively. External validation from the validation set was utilized to examine the external validity of the prediction model using the ROC plot. A decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the benefit of the treatment.Results: Among 1,212 patients with EGC, 210 (17.32%) presented with lymph node metastasis. Multivariable analysis showed that age, tumor size, submucosal invasion, histological subtype, and HER2 positivity were independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis in EGC. The area under the ROC curve of the model was 0.760 (95% CI: 0.719–0.800) in the training set (n = 794) and 0.771 (95% CI: 0.714–0.828) in the validation set (n = 418). A predictive nomogram was constructed based on a multivariable prediction model. The decision curve showed that using the prediction model to guide treatment had a higher net benefit than using endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) absolute criteria over a range of threshold probabilities.Conclusion: A clinical prediction model and an effective nomogram with an integrated HER2 status were used to predict EGC lymph node metastasis with better accuracy and clinical performance.

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Risk factors of lymph node metastasis or lymphovascular invasion for early gastric cancer: a practical and effective predictive model based on international multicenter data

BMC Cancer ◽

10.1186/s12885-019-6147-6 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Jian-Xian Lin ◽

Zu-Kai Wang ◽

Wei Wang ◽

Jacopo Desiderio ◽

Jian-Wei Xie ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Gastric Cancer ◽

Lymph Node ◽

High Risk ◽

Lymph Node Metastasis ◽

Early Gastric Cancer ◽

Lymphovascular Invasion ◽

Training Set ◽

Node Metastasis ◽

Validation Set

Abstract Background Most lymph node metastasis (LNM) models for early gastric cancer (EGC) include lymphovascular invasion (LVI) as a predictor. However, LVI must be confirmed by postoperative pathology. In this study, we aimed to develop a model for predicting the risk of LNM/LVI in EGC using preoperative factors. Methods EGC patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at Fujian Medical University Union Hospital and Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (n = 1460) were selected as the training set. The risk factors of LNM/LVI were investigated. Data from the International study group on Minimally Invasive surgery for GASTRIc Cancer trial (n = 172) were selected as the validation set. Results In the training set, the incidence of LNM/LVI was 21.6%. The 5-year cancer-specific survival rates of patients with and without LNM/LVI were 92.4 and 95.0%, respectively, with significant difference (P = 0.030). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that the four independent risk factors for LNM/LVI were female, tumor larger than 20 mm, submucosal invasion and undifferentiated tumor histological type (all P < 0.05); the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.694 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.659–0.730). Patients were divided into low-risk, intermediate-risk, high-risk and extremely high-risk groups by recursive partitioning analysis; the incidences of LNM/LVI were 5.4, 12.6, 24.2 and 37.8%, respectively (P < 0.001). The AUC of the validation set was 0.796 (95%CI, 0.662–0.851) and the predictive performance of the LNM/LVI risk in the validation set was consistent with that in the training set. Conclusions The risk of LNM/LVI in differentiated mucosal EGC is low, which indicated that endoscopic resection is a treatment option. The risk of LNM/LVI in undifferentiated mucosal EGC and submucosa EGC are high and gastrectomy with lymph node dissection is suggested.

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Predicting lymph node metastasis in early gastric cancer patients: development and validation of a model

Future Oncology ◽

10.2217/fon-2019-0377 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 15 (31) ◽

pp. 3609-3617 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jianfeng Mu ◽

Zhifang Jia ◽

Weikai Yao ◽

Jiaxing Song ◽

Xueyuan Cao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Gastric Cancer ◽

Lymph Node ◽

Lymph Node Metastasis ◽

Early Gastric Cancer ◽

Characteristic Curve ◽

Internal Validation ◽

Clinical Model ◽

Node Metastasis ◽

Validation Set ◽

Gastric Cancer Patients

Aim: To develop and validate a model to predict possibility of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in early gastric cancer. Materials & methods: An LNM prediction model was developed by logistic regression based on the demographics or characteristics of the tumor (N = 746) and then internally and externally validated (N = 126). Results: Four variables, lymphovascular invasion, differentiated types, diameter of tumor and T stage were screened into the model. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.861 (95% CI: 0.851–0.864) in internal validation and 0.911 (95% CI: 0.848–0.974) in the validation set. Conclusion: The model shows excellent discrimination and calibration performance, and is potential to be a useful clinical model to predict the risk of LNM in early gastric cancer.

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Early Gastric Cancer Lymph Node Metastasis Model and Prognostic Survival Prediction Model in Western Population

10.21203/rs.3.rs-112129/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Huakai Tian ◽

Zuo Zhang ◽

Zitao Liu ◽

Cegui Hu ◽

Jiang Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Gastric Cancer ◽

Lymph Node ◽

Lymph Node Metastasis ◽

Early Gastric Cancer ◽

Prediction Model ◽

Tumor Size ◽

Western Population ◽

Node Metastasis ◽

Cox Analysis

Abstract Objective This study analyzed the characteristics of early gastric cancer lymph node metastasis and survival prognosis after surgical resection in western population, and established a predictive model.MethodsPatients with stage T1a and T1b gastric cancer from 2010 to 2015 were screened from the surveillance, epidemiology and final outcome databases. Patients with multiple in situ tumors, distant metastases, and incomplete data were excluded. The risk factors for lymph node metastasis in early gastric cancer were analyzed by binary logistic regression and the chi-square test. Multivariate Cox analysis and the Kaplan-Meier test were used to evaluate the prognostic factors and survival rates of patients with early gastric cancer after surgical resection. The prediction model of lymph node metastasis and survival rate of early gastric cancer was established and verified by R software.ResultsIn 2294 patients, the lymph node metastasis rate was 14.5% (333/2294). Binary logistic multivariate regression analysis showed that tumor size (>2cm), tumor grade (III/IV), and stage T1b were risk factors for lymph node metastasis of early gastric cancer. Area under the curve (AUC) is 0.782.A predictive model was developed based on risk factors, and the model C index was 0.771, indicating that the model has good predictive ability. In addition, survival analysis of 2294 patients showed that the 5-year OS and CSS (75.4% and 88.7%) in patients without EGC were significantly higher than those with lymph node metastasis (64.3% and 72.8%) (P<0.05). Multivariate COX analysis showed that age, sex, race, tumor size, submucosal invasion and lymph node metastasis were independent factors influencing the prognosis of early gastric cancer. A cancer-specific survival (CSS) prediction model was constructed based on prognostic risk factors. The 3-year area under the CSS curve (AUC) was 0.706, and the 5-year area under the CSS curve (AUC) was 0.710. The prediction model is more consistent with the actual situation.ConclusionsWe established a reliable prediction model for lymph node metastasis of early gastric cancer and a prognostic model for early gastric cancer, which provided a good basis for clinical treatment decision.

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