Site-Based Conservation of Terrestrial Bird Species in the Caribbean and Central and South America Under Climate Change

Two of the principal responses of species to recent climate change have been changes in range and abundance, leading to a global reshuffling of the geographic distribution of species. Such range changes may cause species to disappear from areas they currently occupy and, given the right conditions, to colonize new sites. This could affect the ability of site networks (such as protected areas) to conserve species. Identifying sites that will continue to provide suitable conditions for focal species under future climate change scenarios and sites that are likely to become unsuitable is important for effective conservation planning. Here we explore the impacts of climate change on terrestrial bird species of conservation concern in the Neotropics, and the consequences for the network of Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) identified to conserve them. We modelled changes in species distributions for 3,798 species across the Caribbean and Central and South America, accounting for species-specific biological traits (natal dispersal ability and generation length), to assess species occurrences within IBAs under different future climate scenarios. Based on the projected changes in species compositions, we identified potential management strategies for the individual sites of the network. We projected that future climate change will have substantial impacts on the distribution of individual species across the IBA network, resulting in very heterogenous impacts on the individual IBAs. Mean turnover of species of conservation concern within IBAs was 17% by 2050. Nonetheless, under a medium-warming scenario, for 73% of the 939 species of conservation concern, more than half of the IBAs in which they currently occur were projected to remain climatically suitable, and for 90% at least a quarter of the sites remain suitable. These results suggest that the IBA network will remain robust under climate change. Nevertheless, 7% of the species of conservation concern are projected to have no suitable climate in the IBAs currently identified for them. Our results highlight the importance of a network-wide perspective when taking management decisions for individual sites under climate change.

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Future climate change will impact the size and location of breeding and wintering areas of migratory thrushes in South America

The Condor ◽

10.1093/ornithapp/duab006 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Natália Stefanini Da Silveira ◽

Maurício Humberto Vancine ◽

Alex E Jahn ◽

Marco Aurélio Pizo ◽

Thadeu Sobral-Souza

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South America ◽

Migratory Birds ◽

Global Climate ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Global Climate Changes ◽

The Andes ◽

Wintering Areas

Abstract Bird migration patterns are changing worldwide due to current global climate changes. Addressing the effects of such changes on the migration of birds in South America is particularly challenging because the details about how birds migrate within the Neotropics are generally not well understood. Here, we aim to infer the potential effects of future climate change on breeding and wintering areas of birds that migrate within South America by estimating the size and elevations of their future breeding and wintering areas. We used occurrence data from species distribution databases (VertNet and GBIF), published studies, and eBird for 3 thrush species (Turdidae; Turdus nigriceps, T. subalaris, and T. flavipes) that breed and winter in different regions of South America and built ecological niche models using ensemble forecasting approaches to infer current and future potential distributions throughout the breeding and wintering periods of each species. Our findings point to future shifts in wintering and breeding areas, mainly through elevational and longitudinal changes. Future breeding areas for T. nigriceps, which migrates along the Andes Mountains, will be displaced to the west, while breeding displacements to the east are expected for the other 2 species. An overall loss in the size of future wintering areas was also supported for 2 of the species, especially for T. subalaris, but an increase is anticipated for T. flavipes. Our results suggest that future climate change in South America will require that species shift their breeding and wintering areas to higher elevations in addition to changes in their latitudes and longitude. Our findings are the first to show how future climate change may affect migratory birds in South America throughout the year and suggest that even closely related migratory birds in South America will be affected in different ways, depending on the regions where they breed and overwinter.

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Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Paraná River basins

Climate Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s00382-011-1155-5 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 38 (9-10) ◽

pp. 1829-1848 ◽

Cited By ~ 150

Author(s):

Jose A. Marengo ◽

Sin Chan Chou ◽

Gillian Kay ◽

Lincoln M. Alves ◽

José F. Pesquero ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South America ◽

River Basins ◽

Paraná River ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Parana River ◽

Regional Analyses

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Ecosystem services show variable responses to future climate conditions in the Colombian páramos

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.11370 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

pp. e11370

Author(s):

Mauricio Diazgranados ◽

Carolina Tovar ◽

Thomas R. Etherington ◽

Paula A. Rodríguez-Zorro ◽

Carolina Castellanos-Castro ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

High Elevation ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Individual Species ◽

Extensive Literature ◽

Niche Modelling ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Key Species

Background The páramos, the high-elevation ecosystems of the northern Andes, are well-known for their high species richness and provide a variety of ecosystem services to local subsistence-based communities and regional urbanizations. Climate change is expected to negatively affect the provision of these services, but the level of this impact is still unclear. Here we assess future climate change impact on the ecosystem services provided by the critically important páramos of the department of Boyacá in Colombia, of which over 25% of its territory is páramo. Methods We first performed an extensive literature review to identify useful species of Boyacá, and selected 103 key plant species that, based on their uses, support the provision of ecosystem services in the páramos. We collated occurrence information for each key species and using a Mahalanobis distance approach we applied climate niche modelling for current and future conditions. Results We show an overall tendency of reduction in area for all ecosystem services under future climate conditions (mostly a loss of 10% but reaching up to a loss of 40%), but we observe also increases, and responses differ in intensity loss. Services such as Food for animals, Material and Medicinal, show a high range of changes that includes both positive and negative outcomes, while for Food for humans the responses are mostly substantially negative. Responses are less extreme than those projected for individual species but are often complex because a given ecosystem service is provided by several species. As the level of functional or ecological redundancy between species is not yet known, there is an urgency to expand our knowledge on páramos ecosystem services for more species. Our results are crucial for decision-makers, social and conservation organizations to support sustainable strategies to monitor and mitigate the potential consequences of climate change for human livelihoods in mountainous settings.

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Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

Climate Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s00382-006-0182-0 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 28 (2-3) ◽

pp. 255-271 ◽

Cited By ~ 40

Author(s):

Jean-Philippe Boulanger ◽

Fernando Martinez ◽

Enrique C. Segura

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Neural Networks ◽

South America ◽

Bayesian Statistics ◽

Seasonal Cycle ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Mean State

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Effect of future climate change on the coupling between the tropical oceans and precipitation over Southeastern South America

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-016-1888-6 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 141 (2) ◽

pp. 315-329 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Verónica Martín-Gómez ◽

Marcelo Barreiro

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South America ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Tropical Oceans

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Predictions of future climate change in the caribbean region using global general circulation models

International Journal of Climatology ◽

10.1002/joc.1416 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 27 (5) ◽

pp. 555-569 ◽

Cited By ~ 56

Author(s):

Moises E. Angeles ◽

Jorge E. Gonzalez ◽

David J. Erickson ◽

José L. Hernández

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Caribbean Region ◽

The Caribbean

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Projecting Future Climate Change Scenarios Using Three Bias-Correction Methods

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2014/704151 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-12 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Donghyuk Kum ◽

Kyoung Jae Lim ◽

Chun Hwa Jang ◽

Jichul Ryu ◽

Jae E. Yang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Bias Correction ◽

Interdisciplinary Studies ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Quantile Mapping ◽

Global Circulation ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

The Individual

We performed bias correction in future climate change scenarios to provide better accuracy of models through adaptation to future climate change. The proposed combination of the change factor (CF) and quantile mapping (QM) methods combines the individual advantages of both methods for adjusting the bias in global circulation models (GCMs) and regional circulation models (RCMs). We selected a study site in Songwol-dong, Seoul, Republic of Korea, to test and assess our proposed method. Our results show that the combined CF + QM method delivers better performance in terms of correcting the bias in GCMs/RCMs than when both methods are applied individually. In particular, our proposed method considerably improved the bias-corrected precipitation by capturing both the high peaks and amounts of precipitation as compared to that from the CF-only and QM-only methods. Thus, our proposed method can provide high-accuracy bias-corrected precipitation data, which could prove to be highly useful in interdisciplinary studies across the world.

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