scholarly journals Identification of Variable Importance for Predictions of Mortality From COVID-19 Using AI Models for Ontario, Canada

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brett Snider ◽  
Edward A. McBean ◽  
John Yawney ◽  
S. Andrew Gadsden ◽  
Bhumi Patel

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 pandemic has challenged medical systems to the brink of collapse around the globe. In this paper, logistic regression and three other artificial intelligence models (XGBoost, Artificial Neural Network and Random Forest) are described and used to predict mortality risk of individual patients. The database is based on census data for the designated area and co-morbidities obtained using data from the Ontario Health Data Platform. The dataset consisted of more than 280,000 COVID-19 cases in Ontario for a wide-range of age groups; 0–9, 10–19, 20–29, 30–39, 40–49, 50–59, 60–69, 70–79, 80–89, and 90+. Findings resulting from using logistic regression, XGBoost, Artificial Neural Network and Random Forest, all demonstrate excellent discrimination (area under the curve for all models exceeded 0.948 with the best performance being 0.956 for an XGBoost model). Based on SHapley Additive exPlanations values, the importance of 24 variables are identified, and the findings indicated the highest importance variables are, in order of importance, age, date of test, sex, and presence/absence of chronic dementia. The findings from this study allow the identification of out-patients who are likely to deteriorate into severe cases, allowing medical professionals to make decisions on timely treatments. Furthermore, the methodology and results may be extended to other public health regions.

Author(s):  
Jai Sidpra ◽  
Adam P Marcus ◽  
Ulrike Löbel ◽  
Sebastian M Toescu ◽  
Derek Yecies ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Postoperative paediatric cerebellar mutism syndrome (pCMS) is a common but severe complication which may arise following the resection of posterior fossa tumours in children. Two previous studies have aimed to preoperatively predict pCMS, with varying results. In this work, we examine the generalisation of these models and determine if pCMS can be predicted more accurately using an artificial neural network (ANN). Methods An overview of reviews was performed to identify risk factors for pCMS, and a retrospective dataset collected as per these defined risk factors from children undergoing resection of primary posterior fossa tumours. The ANN was trained on this dataset and its performance evaluated in comparison to logistic regression and other predictive indices via analysis of receiver operator characteristic curves. Area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy were calculated and compared using a Wilcoxon signed rank test, with p<0.05 considered statistically significant. Results 204 children were included, of whom 80 developed pCMS. The performance of the ANN (AUC 0.949; accuracy 90.9%) exceeded that of logistic regression (p<0.05) and both external models (p<0.001). Conclusion Using an ANN, we show improved prediction of pCMS in comparison to previous models and conventional methods.


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (4A) ◽  
pp. 510-514
Author(s):  
Tay H. Shihab ◽  
Amjed N. Al-Hameedawi ◽  
Ammar M. Hamza

In this paper to make use of complementary potential in the mapping of LULC spatial data is acquired from LandSat 8 OLI sensor images are taken in 2019.  They have been rectified, enhanced and then classified according to Random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) methods. Optical remote sensing images have been used to get information on the status of LULC classification, and extraction details. The classification of both satellite image types is used to extract features and to analyse LULC of the study area. The results of the classification showed that the artificial neural network method outperforms the random forest method. The required image processing has been made for Optical Remote Sensing Data to be used in LULC mapping, include the geometric correction, Image Enhancements, The overall accuracy when using the ANN methods 0.91 and the kappa accuracy was found 0.89 for the training data set. While the overall accuracy and the kappa accuracy of the test dataset were found 0.89 and 0.87 respectively.


2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Gbenga Williams ◽  
Oluwapelumi O. Ojuri

AbstractAs a result of heterogeneity nature of soils and variation in its hydraulic conductivity over several orders of magnitude for various soil types from fine-grained to coarse-grained soils, predictive methods to estimate hydraulic conductivity of soils from properties considered more easily obtainable have now been given an appropriate consideration. This study evaluates the performance of artificial neural network (ANN) being one of the popular computational intelligence techniques in predicting hydraulic conductivity of wide range of soil types and compared with the traditional multiple linear regression (MLR). ANN and MLR models were developed using six input variables. Results revealed that only three input variables were statistically significant in MLR model development. Performance evaluations of the developed models using determination coefficient and mean square error show that the prediction capability of ANN is far better than MLR. In addition, comparative study with available existing models shows that the developed ANN and MLR in this study performed relatively better.


Author(s):  
Sandip K Lahiri ◽  
Kartik Chandra Ghanta

Four distinct regimes were found existent (namely sliding bed, saltation, heterogeneous suspension and homogeneous suspension) in slurry flow in pipeline depending upon the average velocity of flow. In the literature, few numbers of correlations has been proposed for identification of these regimes in slurry pipelines. Regime identification is important for slurry pipeline design as they are the prerequisite to apply different pressure drop correlation in different regime. However, available correlations fail to predict the regime over a wide range of conditions. Based on a databank of around 800 measurements collected from the open literature, a method has been proposed to identify the regime using artificial neural network (ANN) modeling. The method incorporates hybrid artificial neural network and genetic algorithm technique (ANN-GA) for efficient tuning of ANN meta parameters. Statistical analysis showed that the proposed method has an average misclassification error of 0.03%. A comparison with selected correlations in the literature showed that the developed ANN-GA method noticeably improved prediction of regime over a wide range of operating conditions, physical properties, and pipe diameters.


Author(s):  
Jung-eui Hong ◽  
Cihan H. Dagli ◽  
Kenneth M. Ragsdell

Abstract The primary function of the Wheatstone bridge is to measure an unknown resistance. The elements of this well-known measurement circuit will take on different values depending upon the range and accuracy required for a particular application. The Taguchi approach to parameter design is used to select values for the measurement circuit elements so as to reduce measurement error. Next we introduce the use of an artificial neural network to extrapolate limited experimental results to predict system response over a wide range of applications. This approach can be employed for on-line quality control of the manufacture of such device.


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