scholarly journals Ageing Population's Impact on Economic Growth in Malaysia From 1981 to 2019: Evidence From an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siti Nur Ain Mohd ◽  
Ayunee Anis Ishak ◽  
Doris Padmini Selvaratnam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Age Dependency ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Population Variable ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of the ageing population on the economic growth for short- and long-run estimations in Malaysia, by using time series data from 1981 to 2019. This study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method with the Bound test approach for the long-run estimation and the vector error correction model for the short-run estimation. Several econometric diagnostic tests were applied for validation and the appropriate model specification basis. The estimated result of this work indicates that the age dependency ratio proxy for the ageing population variable has a significant negative impact on economic growth in Malaysia. A 1% increase in old age dependency will decline gross domestic product's (GDP's) growth by an average of 6.6043% at the 5% level of significance. Hence, an increase in the ageing population will impede economic growth. Although controlled variables (e.g., physical capital, labour participation, and human capital) have a significant positive impact on economic growth in Malaysia, there is evidence of a long- and short-run relationship between economic growth and the ageing population variable, and also the control variable.

scholarly journals The Impact of Saving and Financial Development on Economic Growth in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Hatem Hatef Abdulkadhim Altaee ◽  
Mohamed Khaled Al-Jafari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Domestic Saving ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Since saving and financial development are vital to economic growth, this research empirically investigates the impact of saving and financial development on economic growth in Turkey. Therefore, a time series data from 1968 until 2017 were tested utilizing both the error correction model (ECM) and the autoregressive distributed lag approach (ARDL). The findings reveal an existence of a short-run and a long-run positive and significant effect of savings and financial development on economic growth. Conventional inputs such as capital and labor proved to be the most important factors in achieving economic growth in Turkey. The study concludes that an appropriate policy mix will enhance domestic saving in the country.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

scholarly journals A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Adjustment on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 215824402110271
Author(s):  
Ibrar Hussain ◽  
Jawad Hussain ◽  
Arshad Ali ◽  
Shabir Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Empirical Calibration ◽  
Short Run ◽  
S Model ◽  
The Impact

This study claims to be the first in assessing the short-run and long-run impacts of both the size and composition of fiscal adjustment on the growth in Pakistan. Empirical calibration has been made on Mankiw et al.’s model, while the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques of Pesaran et al. have been employed to carry out the estimation. To cure the problem of degenerate cases, the ARDL techniques have been augmented with the model of Sam et al. The analysis supports the hypothesis of “expansionary fiscal contraction” in the long run. The analysis reveals that the spending-based adjustment enhances the economic growth, whereas the tax-based adjustment would reduce the growth in the long run in the case of Pakistan. The Granger causality test indicates that the fiscal adjustments have been weakly exogenous, thereby allowing feedback effect from the economic growth toward the fiscal adjustment. Thus, the objective of sustained economic growth can be achieved through the spending-based consolidation measures.

scholarly journals The Nexus Among Economic Growth, Inflation and Unemployment in Bhutan

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 94-105
Author(s):  
Ugyen Tenzin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Employment Elasticity ◽  
The Impact

In order to understand the dynamics of unemployment in Bhutan at a macro-level, this study has explored the association among economic growth, inflation and unemployment from 1998 to 2016. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was applied to estimate the impact of economic growth and inflation on unemployment. The results of this empirical analysis suggest that economic growth had no impact on the reduction of unemployment rate in Bhutan both in the short and in the long run. In fact, as the economic growth increased, so did the unemployment rate. However, inflation had a negative association with unemployment rate in the short run and a positive association in the long run. In other words, an increase in the employment rate led to an increase in the inflation in the short run. Likewise, if inflation is not monitored or controlled, the uncertainty of inflation can lead to lower investment and lower economic growth, thereby causing unemployment to rise in the long run. This study, therefore, recommends policymakers to take into account the employment elasticity with respect to economic output and focus on sectors, which have more absorptive capacity in engaging the young labour market entrants. JEL: B22, C22, E24, E31

scholarly journals The Impact of Output Volatility on CO2 Emissions in Turkey: Testing EKC Hypothesis with Fourier Stationarity Test

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Can Genç ◽  
Aykut Ekinci ◽  
Burchan Sakarya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study uses the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) approach to determine the dynamic short- and long-term impacts of the volatility of economic growth (VOL) on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Turkey from 1980 to 2016. The results of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach indicate that there is a long-run relationship between CO2, per capita real GDP, and VOL. The coefficients obtained from the ARDL estimation indicate that economic growth increases CO2 emissions, but VOL decreases CO2 emissions in the long run. However, the coefficients obtained from the ARDL error correction model show that VOL increases CO2 emissions in the short run. We also find that the EKC is valid in Turkey.

scholarly journals The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price and Electricity Consumption on Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-70
Author(s):  
Adedayo Emmanuel Longe ◽  
Taiwo Matthew Adekoya ◽  
Caleb Olugbenga Soyemi ◽  
David Adeiza Agbanuji ◽  
Idowu Jacob Adekomi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The study examines the asymmetric impact of oil price and electricity consumption on economic growth in Nigeria between 1981 and 2018 using the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. Results reveal that falling and increasing oil prices as well as gross capital formation affect economic growth in Nigeria negatively and significantly in the short-run, while electricity consumption affects economic growth positively and significantly in the short-run. In the long-run, the impact on economic growth of negative changes in oil price is negative and insignificant, while positive changes in oil price have a positive but insignificant impact on economic growth. The impact on the economic growth of electricity consumption remains positive but insignificant while that of gross capital formation is positive and significant. The results suggest that both in the short and the long run positive changes in oil price have greater impact on the economic growth than negative oil price changes. Capital formation is a significant determinant of Nigerian economic growth both in the short and the long run.

scholarly journals Ageing Population and Economic Growth: Evidence from Malaysia

2020 ◽  
pp. 11-18
Author(s):  
Shairilizwan Taasim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Employment Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Development Expenditure ◽  
The Impact

This main purpose of this article investigated the impact of ageing population on economic growth in Malaysia. Annual time series data for 27-year duration (1990-2017) was used and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) was applied. This study will focuses on addressing role of ageing population in Malaysia by context that failed to receive much attention especially in employment sector. By using Romer [1] endogenous theory, the cointegration result revealed that exists a long run relationship exists between ageing population in Malaysia government development expenditure in education and economic growth. Our analysis recommends further investment in government expenditure in education sector to achieving higher human capital capability as a towards high income country and ageing phenomena.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

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