scholarly journals Great Lakes Basin Heat Waves: An Analysis of Their Increasing Probability of Occurrence Under Global Warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengyi Xie ◽  
Andre R. Erler ◽  
Deepak Chandan ◽  
W. Richard Peltier
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
Great Lakes Basin ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Instrumental Period ◽  
Heat Events

Extreme heat events in the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) region of eastern North America are expected to increase in concert with greenhouse gas (GHG) induced global warming. The extent of this regional increase is also influenced by the direct effects of the Great Lakes themselves. This paper describes results from an ensemble of dynamically downscaled global warming projection using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional climate model coupled to the Freshwater Lake (FLake) model over the Great Lakes region. In our downscaling pipeline, we explore two sets of WRF physics configurations, with the initial and boundary conditions provided by four different fully coupled Global Climate Models (GCMs). Three time periods are investigated, namely an instrumental period (1979–1989) that is employed for validation, and a mid-century (2050–2060) and an end-century (2085–2100) periods that are used to understand the future impacts of global warming. Results from the instrumental period are characterized by large variations in climate states between the ensemble members, which is attributed to differences in both GCM forcing and WRF physics configuration. Results for the future periods, however, are such that the regional model results have good agreement with GCM results insofar as the rise of average temperature with GHG is concerned. Analysis of extreme heat events suggests that the occurrence rate of such events increase steadily with rising temperature, and that the Great Lakes exert strong lake effect influence on extreme heat events in this region.

scholarly journals Interdecadal Variations of Persistent Extreme Heat Events in Eastern China Under Global Warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naihui Zang ◽  
Junhu Zhao ◽  
Pengcheng Yan ◽  
Han Zhang ◽  
Shankai Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
21St Century ◽  
South China ◽  
North China ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
June July ◽  
Heat Events

Abstract Persistent extreme heat events (PEHEs) exert a more negative impact on society, including agriculture, plant phenology, power production and human health, compared to general EHEs. The temporal and spatial characteristics of summer PEHEs in eastern China were analysed based on a daily maximum temperature dataset from 759 stations over the period of 1961–2018. The results show the following: Persistent distributions of PEHEs show that they are characterized by an exponential decay with a drop in the decay rate. In terms of spatial distribution, there is an apparent regional difference in the duration of PEHEs. North China is dominated by multi-frequency and short-duration EHEs, while South China is the opposite. PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region mainly occur in June-July but mostly in July and August in South China. Strongly responding to global warming, the frequency and duration of PEHEs in North China have increased since the 1990s. However, the frequency of PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region has shown opposite trends in June-July since the beginning of the 21st century. Affected by the atmospheric circulations, the regional differences in PEHE frequency are also apparent. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai area have shown an increasing trend in August. The short-term PEHEs in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China increased rapidly in the 2000s, while long-term PEHEs increased in the 2010s. This study implies that attention should be paid to not only the frequency of EH days but also to the persistence of EHE which is a key characteristic of damaging EH.

scholarly journals Regional changes in extreme heat events in China under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 198-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gu-Wei ZHANG ◽  
Gang ZENG ◽  
Vedaste Iyakaremye ◽  
Qing-Long YOU
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Events

scholarly journals The effect of forced change and unforced variability in heat waves, temperature extremes, and associated population risk in a CO<sub>2</sub>-warmed world

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (15) ◽  
pp. 11889-11904
Author(s):  
Jangho Lee ◽  
Jeffrey C. Mast ◽  
Andrew E. Dessler
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Extremes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Population ◽  
Heat Events ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. This study investigates the impact of global warming on heat and humidity extremes by analyzing 6 h output from 28 members of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble driven by forcing from a 1 % yr−1 CO2 increase. We find that unforced variability drives large changes in regional exposure to extremes in different ensemble members, and these variations are mostly associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. However, while the unforced variability in the climate can alter the occurrence of extremes regionally, variability within the ensemble decreases significantly as one looks at larger regions or at a global population perspective. This means that, for metrics of extreme heat and humidity analyzed here, forced variability in the climate is more important than the unforced variability at global scales. Lastly, we found that most heat wave metrics will increase significantly between 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C, and that low gross domestic product (GDP) regions show significantly higher risks of facing extreme heat events compared to high GDP regions. Considering the limited economic adaptability of the population to heat extremes, this reinforces the idea that the most severe impacts of climate change may fall mostly on those least capable of adapting.

scholarly journals Human and natural drivers of the recent contrasting trends between daytime and nighttime hot extremes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang-Wook Yeh ◽  
Eun-Hye Lee ◽  
Seung-Ki Min
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Tropical Night ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Events

Abstract The frequency and duration of extreme heat events, including heat waves (HWs, daytime hot extremes) and tropical night (TNs), are increasing significantly as the climate warms, adversely affecting human health, agriculture, and energy consumption. Although many detection and attribution studies have examined extreme heat events, the underlying mechanisms associated with the recent increase in HWs and TNs remain unclear. In this study, we analyze the controlling factors behind the distinct increases in HW and TN events over the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer (June to August). We found that the occurrence of HW events has been increasing gradually since 1980, mostly due to anthropogenic forcing. However, the occurrence of TN events increased abruptly during the late 1990s and has changed little since then. We demonstrate that this sudden increase in TN events is closely associated with low frequency variability in sea surface temperature, including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, indicating its natural origin. We further found that CMIP5 climate models fail to capture the observed non-linear increases in TN events, implying potentially large uncertainty in future projections of nighttime heat events and its impacts on human society and ecosystem.

scholarly journals Interdecadal variations of persistent extreme heat events in eastern China under global warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naihui Zang ◽  
Junhu Zhao ◽  
Pengcheng Yan ◽  
Han Zhang ◽  
Shankai Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Events

scholarly journals Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events

2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (9) ◽  
pp. 1699-1712 ◽  
Author(s):  
ROBERT TESKEY ◽  
TIMOTHY WERTIN ◽  
INGVAR BAUWERAERTS ◽  
MAARTEN AMEYE ◽  
MARY ANNE MCGUIRE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Species ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Events

scholarly journals The Effect of Forced and Unforced Variability on Heat Waves, Temperature Extremes, and Associated Population Risk in a CO<sub>2</sub>-Warmed World

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jangho Lee ◽  
Jeffery C. Mast ◽  
Andrew E. Dessler
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Hourly Output ◽  
Heat Extremes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Population ◽  
Heat Events ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. This study investigates the impact of global warming on heat and humidity extremes by analyzing 6-hourly output from 28 members of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble driven by forcing from a 1 %/year CO2 increase. We find that unforced variability drives large changes in regional exposure to extremes in different ensemble members, and these variations are mostly associated with ENSO variability. However, while the unforced variability of the climate can alter the occurrence of extremes regionally, variability within the ensemble decreases significantly as one looks at larger regions or at a global population perspective. This means that, for metrics of extreme heat and humidity analyzed here, forced variability of the climate is more important than the unforced variability at global scales. Lastly, we found that most heat wave metrics will increase significantly between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, and that low GDP regions shows significant higher risks of facing extreme heat events compared to high GDP regions. Considering the limited economic adaptability of population to heat extremes, this reinforces the idea that the most severe impacts of climate change may fall mostly on those least capable to adapt.

Strategic locating of refuges for extreme heat events (or heat waves)

Urban Climate ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 109-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew M. Fraser ◽  
Mikhail V. Chester ◽  
David Eisenman
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Events
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