Cosmogenic radionuclides reveal an extreme solar particle storm near a solar minimum 9125 years BP

During solar storms, the Sun expels large amounts of energetic particles (SEP) that can react with the Earth’s atmospheric constituents and produce cosmogenic radionuclides such as 14C, 10Be and 36Cl. Here we present 10Be and 36Cl data measured in ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica. The data consistently show one of the largest 10Be and 36Cl production peaks detected so far, most likely produced by an extreme SEP event that hit Earth 9125 years BP (before present, i.e., before 1950 CE), i.e., 7176 BCE. Using the 36Cl/10Be ratio, we demonstrate that this event was characterized by a very hard energy spectrum and was possibly up to two orders of magnitude larger than any SEP event during the instrumental period. Furthermore, we provide 10Be-based evidence that, contrary to expectations, the SEP event occurred near a solar minimum.

Low-frequency atmospheric variability patterns and synoptic types linked to large floods in the lower Ebro River basin

This study analyzes the atmospheric variability that caused the largest floods affecting the town of Tortosa in the mouth of the Ebro River (northeast Iberian Peninsula). The Tortosa flood database and flood marks in the nearby town of Xerta are used to define the more relevant flooding episodes (discharges > 2900 m3s−1) of the 1600-2005 period. We explore the atmospheric variability based on low-frequency patterns and synoptic types applying a multivariable analysis to grids at sea-level pressure and geopotential at 500 hPa provided by the 20th Century V3 Reanalysis Project for the instrumental period (since 1836). Output from the Last Millennium Ensemble Project was used to analyze the sea-level pressure over the pre-instrumental period (before 1836). Our analysis includes 33 flood episodes. Four synoptic types are related to floods in Tortosa since 1836, characterized by low-pressure systems that interact with the Mediterranean warm air-mass and promote the atmosphere destabilization. Flooding in Tortosa is related to relative high values of solar activity, positive Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies and NAO in positive phase. This indicates that the major floods are related to zonal atmospheric circulations (west to east cyclone transfer). During winter, the main impact of the floods is located at the western part of the basin, while the Pyrenean sub-basins are affected during autumn. The major finding is that similar flood behavior is detected since 1600, improving our understanding of past climates, enhancing the knowledge base for some aspects and impacts of climate change and reducing uncertainty about future outcomes.

Tectonic Geomorphic of Sulawesi Island and Its Implication for Future Large Earthquake

This paper analyzes how resource of past and prospective great earthquake on the Central Sulawesi Arm, adhere on topography analysis from several space-based source. To answer the question, we analysis the tectonic geomorphic, stream pattern, exhumed fault, geological mapping and seismicity data. Detailed tectonic geomorphic studies in Sulawesi still lacking due to tectonic and fault obscures. For instance, Palu Koro Fault (PKF) was unpredictable, because the historical seismic records inevitably remain poorly documented and unrecognized fault strand, which was buried beneath abundant Quaternary alluvium subsequently obscured the fault trace. In other hand, the faults have been active during Quaternary must take into account because potentially dangerous, also the inactive faults during instrumental period must be re-evaluated in order to have awareness for large future large earthquake. Surprisingly, recent seismic activity of PKF generate super shear rupture a Mw 7.5 earthquake on 28th September 2018 with average slip 41 mm/year, which over the past two decade quiet from any seismic activity. The seismic potential for large fault is essential, since it has been silent during the instrumental period. Therefore, our motivation in this study to produce detail tectonic geomorphic map of the region in local scale, which is currently not available to prepare better knowledge and awareness for the large future earthquake. We have use Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) with resolution ~30m, which run by ArcGIS software to observed tectonic geomorphic evidence of fault system and supplement with structural, geological and bathymetric data’s as ware available to us. We relate this analysis with seismicity data from Centroid Moment Tensor Solution (CMT) to recognize the seismic source. Our results show the tectonic geomorphic of Central Sulawesi Arm due to nature extension of NNW-SSE left-lateral slip curving to WNW-ESE of Palu-Koro Fault (PKF), then transcript to N-S circular normal fault of Poso Fault (PF). The PF indicate replica of PKF curving, where has not been mapped previously. We have mapped 60 major onshore fault systems, 10 faults showed evidence maximal to rapid rate tectonic activity along instrumental periods. Based on our CMT analysis, Sulawesi Island is greatly dominated by oblique fault.

Great Lakes Basin Heat Waves: An Analysis of Their Increasing Probability of Occurrence Under Global Warming

Extreme heat events in the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) region of eastern North America are expected to increase in concert with greenhouse gas (GHG) induced global warming. The extent of this regional increase is also influenced by the direct effects of the Great Lakes themselves. This paper describes results from an ensemble of dynamically downscaled global warming projection using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional climate model coupled to the Freshwater Lake (FLake) model over the Great Lakes region. In our downscaling pipeline, we explore two sets of WRF physics configurations, with the initial and boundary conditions provided by four different fully coupled Global Climate Models (GCMs). Three time periods are investigated, namely an instrumental period (1979–1989) that is employed for validation, and a mid-century (2050–2060) and an end-century (2085–2100) periods that are used to understand the future impacts of global warming. Results from the instrumental period are characterized by large variations in climate states between the ensemble members, which is attributed to differences in both GCM forcing and WRF physics configuration. Results for the future periods, however, are such that the regional model results have good agreement with GCM results insofar as the rise of average temperature with GHG is concerned. Analysis of extreme heat events suggests that the occurrence rate of such events increase steadily with rising temperature, and that the Great Lakes exert strong lake effect influence on extreme heat events in this region.

The propagation velocity of seismic activity migrating along the directions of the geodynamic forces prevailing in the northeastern Baikal rift system, Russia

The recent tectonic stress field in the northeastern Baikal rift system (BRS) corresponds to the crustal deformation field. The stress-strain state of the Earth’s crust determines the fault network geometry and spatiotemporal structure of the epicentral field characterized by many earthquake swarms and earthquake migrations in the study area. In order to study the seismic process dynamics in different directions of the crustal deformation, the spatiotemporal analysis of earthquake time series has been made over the 1964–2015 instrumental period. To determine the relationship between crustal stress and spatiotemporal features of the epicentral field the seismic data were projected along horizontal stress tensor axes σ3 and σ2, consistent with major directions of the crustal deformation, a strike of major rifting structures, and a general azimuth of active fault groups. The NE-SW direction along the intermediate horizontal stress axes and main faulted arears exhibits slow earthquake migrations up to 60 km long, propagating with a modal velocity of about 30 kilometers per year. The NW-SE direction along the principal horizontal stress axes, orthogonal to the main faulted areas, is characterized by shorter migration sequences of less duration, propagating with a higher velocity than sequences registered in the NE-SW. The difference between the migration dynamics in mutually orthogonal directions can be attributed to the fault network configuration and the differences in the deformation process.

Documentary evidence of droughts in Sweden between the Middle Ages and ca. 1800 CE

This article explores documentary evidence of droughts in Sweden in the pre-instrumental period (1400–1800 CE). A database has been developed using contemporary sources, such as private and official correspondence letters, diaries, almanac notes, manorial accounts, and weather data compilations. The primary purpose is to utilize hitherto unused documentary data as an input for an index that can be useful for comparisons on a larger European scale. The survey shows that eight subperiods can be considered as having been particularly struck by summer droughts, causing concomitant harvest failures and having great social impacts in Sweden. This is the case with 1634–1639, 1652–1657, 1665–1670, 1677–1684, 1746–1750, 1757–1767, 1771–1776, and 1780–1783 CE. Within these subperiods, 1652 and 1657 stand out as particularly troublesome years. A number of data for dry summers are also found for the middle decades of the 15th century, the first decade of the 1500s, and the 1550s.

Seismic and Geodetic Imaging (DInSAR) Investigation of the March 2021 Strong Earthquake Sequence in Thessaly, Central Greece

Three strong earthquakes ruptured the northwest Thessaly area, Central Greece, on the 3, 4 and 12 March 2021. Since the area did not rupture by strong earthquakes in the instrumental period of seismicity, it is of great interest to understand the seismotectonics and source properties of these earthquakes. We combined relocated hypocenters, inversions of teleseismic P-waveforms and of InSAR data, and moment tensor solutions to produce three fault models. The first shock (Mw = 6.3) occurred in a fault segment of strike 314° and dip NE41°. It caused surface subsidence −40 cm and seismic slip 1.2–1.5 m at depth ~10 km. The second earthquake (Mw = 6.2) occurred to the NW on an antithetic subparallel fault segment (strike 123°, dip SW44°). Seismic slip of 1.2 m occurred at depth of ~7 km, while surface subsidence −10 cm was determined. Possibly the same fault was ruptured further to the NW on 12 March (Mw = 5.7, strike 112°, dip SSW42°) that caused ground subsidence −5 cm and seismic slip of 1.0 m at depth ~10 km. We concluded that three blind, unknown and unmapped so far normal fault segments were activated, the entire system of which forms a graben-like structure in the area of northwest Thessaly.

Dating historical droughts from religious ceremonies, the international pro pluvia rogation database

Climate proxy data are required for improved understanding of climate variability and change in the pre-instrumental period. We present the first international initiative to compile and share information on pro pluvia rogation ceremonies, which is a well-studied proxy of agricultural drought. Currently, the database has more than 3500 dates of celebration of rogation ceremonies, providing information for 153 locations across 11 countries spanning the period from 1333 to 1949. This product provides data for better understanding of the pre-instrumental drought variability, validating natural proxies and model simulations, and multi-proxy rainfall reconstructions, amongst other climatic exercises. The database is freely available and can be easily accessed and visualized via http://inpro.unizar.es/.

Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated tree-ring stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ∼2000 and ∼1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ∼1675 to ∼1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during the mid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium–BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.

Historical agricultural droughts from the INternational Pro pluvia ROgation database

<p>We present the INPRO (INternational Pro pluvia ROgation) database, the first international initiative to compile and share information on pro pluvia rogation ceremonies. Rogations are religious rites celebrated in supplication to gods for changing the environmental or social risks brought to their communities. Pro pluvial rogations have the specific objective to obtain rainfall during drought periods. This proxy has been used to understand drought variability in the pre-instrumental period, to generate precipitation or atmospheric circulation modes reconstructions, to validate natural proxies, or to understand the social consequences of droughts, mainly during the last 500 years. Different methodologies have been used in the literature to extract the climate signal from this proxy. Here, we evaluate the pros and cons of these methodologies, with special attention on methodologies based on the date of the celebration, since it is the main variable provided by INPRO. Important questions to take advantage of INPRO database are discussed e.g. types of documentary sources (primary or secondary), time resolution (daily, monthly, seasonally or yearly) or seasonality (related with agricultural labours). Finally, we provide recommendations for the use of IMPRO depending on the different research objectives e.g. case studies, drought reconstruction, proxies validation. Currently INPRO database has more than 3500 dates of pro pluvia ceremonies in 153 locations of 11 countries (Mexico, Guatemala, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Philippines). The database covers the period from 1333 to 1949, being the 18<sup>th</sup> century when more information is available. INPRO database can be freely accessed and visualized via http://inpro.unizar.es/.</p>