scholarly journals Road Emissions in London: Insights from Geographically Detailed Classification and Regression Modelling

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 188
Author(s):  
Alexandros Sfyridis ◽  
Paolo Agnolucci

Greenhouse gases and air pollutant emissions originating from road transport continues to rise in the UK, indicating a significant contribution to climate change and negative impacts on human health and ecosystems. However, emissions are usually estimated at aggregated levels, and on many occasions roads of minor importance are not taken into account, normally due to lack of traffic counts. This paper presents a methodology enabling estimation of air pollutants and CO2 for each street segment in the Greater London area. This is achieved by applying a hybrid probabilistic classification–regression approach on a set of variables believed to affect traffic volumes and utilizing emission factors. The output reveals pollution hot spots and the effects of open spaces in a spatially rich dataset. Considering the disaggregated approach, the methodology can be used to facilitate policy making for both local and national aggregated levels.

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 5-14
Author(s):  
Carmelia Mariana Dragomir Balanica ◽  
Ciprian Cuzmin ◽  
Cecilia Serban ◽  
Cristian Muntenita

Road transport, including accessibility and individual mobility is considered unanimously as a fundamental element of contemporary living. The study area is considering Braila County with a total population of around over 305,000. The area it is well served by 6 national roads, 27 county roads and 42 communal roads and contains some of the most heavily trafficked stretches of road in the Romania. The emissions analysed in this study CH4, CO, CO2, N2O, NH3, NOx, PM2.5 and PM10, were collected by the Agency for Environmental Protection Braila during 2015-2019 based on questionnaires according to EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook. The highest level of pollutant emissions was recorded in 2017, more exactly 191714,5 Megatons. In this article we analysed five categories of pollution sources: Passenger car, Light commercial trucks, Heavy-duty vehicles, Motorcycles and Non - Road vehicles and other mobile equipment. With the exception of CO2, N2O and NH3, pollutant emissions decreased for the eight pollutants analysed.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (7) ◽  
pp. 1-124
Author(s):  
Martin L Williams ◽  
Sean Beevers ◽  
Nutthida Kitwiroon ◽  
David Dajnak ◽  
Heather Walton ◽  
...  

BackgroundThe UK’sClimate Change Act 2008(CCA; Great Britain.Climate Change Act 2008. Chapter 27. London: The Stationery Office; 2008) requires a reduction of 80% in carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions by 2050 on a 1990 base. This project quantified the impact of air pollution on health from four scenarios involving particulate matter of ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3). Two scenarios met the CCA target: one with limited nuclear power build (nuclear replacement option; NRPO) and one with no policy constraint on nuclear (low greenhouse gas). Another scenario envisaged no further climate actions beyond those already agreed (‘baseline’) and the fourth kept 2011 concentrations constant to 2050 (‘2011’).MethodsThe UK Integrated MARKAL–EFOM System (UKTM) energy system model was used to develop the scenarios and produce projections of fuel use; these were used to produce air pollutant emission inventories for Great Britain (GB) for each scenario. The inventories were then used to run the Community Multiscale Air Quality model ‘air pollution model’ to generate air pollutant concentration maps across GB, which then, combined with relationships between concentrations and health outcomes, were used to calculate the impact on health from the air pollution emitted in each scenario. This is a significant improvement on previous health impact studies of climate policies, which have relied on emissions changes. Inequalities in exposure in different socioeconomic groups were also calculated, as was the economic impact of the pollution emissions.ResultsConcentrations of NO2declined significantly because of a high degree of electrification of the GB road transport fleet, although the NRPO scenario shows large increases in oxides of nitrogen emissions from combined heat and power (CHP) sources. Concentrations of PM2.5show a modest decrease by 2050, which would have been larger if it had not been for a significant increase in biomass (wood burning) use in the two CCA scenarios peaking in 2035. The metric quantifying long-term exposure to O3is projected to decrease, while the important short-term O3exposure metric increases. Large projected increases in future GB vehicle kilometres lead to increased non-exhaust PM2.5and particulate matter of ≤ 10 µm emissions. The two scenarios which achieve the CCA target resulted in more life-years lost from long-term exposures to PM2.5than in the baseline scenario. This is an opportunity lost and arises largely from the increase in biomass use, which is projected to peak in 2035. Reduced long-term exposures to NO2lead to many more life-years saved in the ‘CCA-compliant’ scenarios, but the association used may overestimate the effects of NO2itself. The more deprived populations are estimated currently to be exposed to higher concentrations than those less deprived, the contrast being largest for NO2. Despite reductions in concentrations in 2050, the most socioeconomically deprived are still exposed to higher concentrations than the less deprived.LimitationsModelling of the atmosphere is always uncertain; we have shown the model to be acceptable through comparison with observations. The necessary complexity of the modelling system has meant that only a small number of scenarios were run.ConclusionsWe have established a system which can be used to explore a wider range of climate policy scenarios, including more European and global scenarios as well as local measures. Future work could explore wood burning in more detail, in terms of the sectors in which it might be burned and the spatial distribution of this across the UK. Further analyses of options for CHP could also be explored. Non-exhaust emissions from road transport are an important source of particles and emission factors are uncertain. Further research on this area coupled with our modelling would be a valuable area of research.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme.


Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 695
Author(s):  
Marek Bogacki ◽  
Robert Oleniacz ◽  
Mateusz Rzeszutek ◽  
Paulina Bździuch ◽  
Adriana Szulecka ◽  
...  

One of the elements of strategy aimed at minimizing the impact of road transport on air quality is the introduction of its reorganization resulting in decreased pollutant emissions to the air. The aim of the study was to determine the optimal strategy of corrective actions in terms of the air pollutant emissions from road transport. The study presents the assessment results of the emission reduction degree of selected pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, and NOx) as well as the impact evaluation of this reduction on their concentrations in the air for adopted scenarios of the road management changes for one of the street canyons in Krakow (Southern Poland). Three scenarios under consideration of the city authorities were assessed: narrowing the cross-section of the street by eliminating one lane in both directions, limiting the maximum speed from 70 km/h to 50 km/h, and allowing only passenger and light commercial vehicles on the streets that meet the Euro 4 standard or higher. The best effects were obtained for the variant assuming banning of vehicles failing to meet the specified Euro standard. It would result in a decrease of the yearly averaged PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations by about 8–9% and for NOx by almost 30%.


2013 ◽  
Vol 394 ◽  
pp. 597-604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferdinando Corriere ◽  
Gianfranco Rizzo ◽  
Marco Guerrieri

The road pollutant emissions, above all in urban context, are correlated to many infrastructural parameters and to traffic intensity and typology. The research work on road junction geometry, carried out in European research centres, has recently allowed to design new road intersection types which are of undoubted interest, especially in terms of traffic functionality and safety, like the turbo roundabouts (in which right-turn manoeuvres do not conflict with the circulating flow). The main objective of this paper is to propose a model for the estimation the performances and the pollutant emissions into turbo roundabouts. A comparative analysis between conventional roundabout and turbo roundabout has been carried out in terms of CO, CO2, CH4, NO, PM2,5 and PM10 vehicular emissions, evaluated by mean of COPERT Software which is developed as a European tool for the calculation of emissions from the road transport sector.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Zheng ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Guannan Geng ◽  
Qinren Shi ◽  
Yu Lei ◽  
...  

Abstract. The COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns led to a sharp drop in socio-economic activities in China in 2020, including reductions in fossil fuel use, industry productions, and traffic volumes. The short-term impacts of lockdowns on China's air quality have been measured and reported, however, the changes in anthropogenic emissions have not yet been assessed quantitatively, which hinders our understanding of the causes of the air quality changes during COVID-19. Here, for the first time, we report the anthropogenic air pollutant emissions from mainland China during the first eight months of 2020 by using a bottom-up approach based on the near real-time data. The COVID-19 lockdown was estimated to have reduced China's anthropogenic emissions substantially between January and March in 2020, with the largest reductions in February. Emissions of SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOCs, and primary PM2.5 were estimated to have decreased by 29 %, 31 %, 27 %, 26 %, and 21 %, respectively, in February 2020 compared to the same month in 2019. The reductions in anthropogenic emissions were dominated by the industry sector for SO2 and PM2.5 and were contributed approximately equally by the industry and transportation sectors for NOx, CO, and NMVOCs. With the spread of coronavirus controlled, China's anthropogenic emissions rebounded in April and since then returned to the comparable levels of 2019 in August 2020. The provinces in China have presented nearly synchronous decline and rebound in anthropogenic emissions, while Hubei and the provinces surrounding Beijing recovered slower due to the extension of lockdown measures. The reduction ratios of anthropogenic emissions from 2019 to 2020 can be accessed from https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5214920.v1 (Zheng et al., 2020) by species, month, sector, and province.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 124001
Author(s):  
Liang Ma ◽  
Daniel J Graham ◽  
Marc E J Stettler

Abstract London introduced the world’s most stringent emissions zone, the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), in April 2019 to reduce air pollutant emissions from road transport and accelerate compliance with the EU air quality standards. Combining meteorological normalisation, change point detection, and a regression discontinuity design with time as the forcing variable, we provide an ex-post causal analysis of air quality improvements attributable to the London ULEZ. We observe that the ULEZ caused only small improvements in air quality in the context of a longer-term downward trend in London’s air pollution levels. Structural changes in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) concentrations were detected at 70% and 24% of the (roadside and background) monitoring sites and amongst the sites that showed a response, the relative changes in air pollution ranged from −9% to 6% for NO2, −5% to 4% for O3, and −6% to 4% for particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5). Aggregating the responses across London, we find an average reduction of less than 3% for NO2 concentrations, and insignificant effects on O3 and PM2.5 concentrations. As other cities consider implementing similar schemes, this study implies that the ULEZ on its own is not an effective strategy in the sense that the marginal causal effects were small. On the other hand, the ULEZ is one of many policies implemented to tackle air pollution in London, and in combination these have led to improvements in air quality that are clearly observable. Thus, reducing air pollution requires a multi-faceted set of policies that aim to reduce emissions across sectors with coordination among local, regional and national government.


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