scholarly journals Artificial Intelligence-Based Techniques for Rainfall Estimation Integrating Multisource Precipitation Datasets

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1239
Author(s):  
Raihan Sayeed Khan ◽  
Md Abul Ehsan Bhuiyan
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Error Statistics ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

This study presents a comprehensive investigation of multiple Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques—decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network—to generate improved precipitation estimates over the Upper Blue Nile Basin. All the AI methods merged multiple satellite and atmospheric reanalysis precipitation datasets to generate error-corrected precipitation estimates. The accuracy of the model predictions was evaluated using 13 years (2000–2012) of ground-based precipitation data derived from local rain gauge networks in the Upper Blue Nile Basin region. The results indicate that merging multiple sources of precipitation substantially reduced the systematic and random error statistics in the Upper Blue Nile Basin. The proposed methods have great potential in predicting precipitation over the complex terrain region.

scholarly journals First Evaluation of the Day-1 IMERG over the Upper Blue Nile Basin

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 2875-2882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dejene Sahlu ◽  
Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos ◽  
Semu A. Moges ◽  
Emmanouil N. Anagnostou ◽  
Dereje Hailu
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Abstract This work presents a first evaluation of the performance of the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) precipitation product over the upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia. One of the unique features of this study is the availability of hourly rainfall measurements from an experimental rain gauge network in the area. Both the uncalibrated and calibrated versions of IMERG are evaluated, and their performance is contrasted against another high-resolution satellite product, which is the Kalman filter (KF)-based Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH). The analysis is performed for hourly and daily time scales and at spatial scales that correspond to the nominal resolution of satellite products, which is 0.1° spatial resolution. The period analyzed is focused on a single wet season (May–October 2014). Evaluation is performed using several statistical and categorical error metrics, as well as spatial correlation analysis to assess the ability of satellite products to represent spatial variability of precipitation in the area. Results show that both IMERG products have a better bias ratio and correlation coefficient on both time scales as compared to CMORPH. Comparison statistics show a slight improvement in the skill of detecting rainfall events in IMERG products compared to CMORPH. Results also show a decreasing trend in the detection ability of satellite products for increasing threshold values, highlighting the need to further improve detection during heavy precipitation.

scholarly journals Validation of new satellite rainfall products over the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Getachew Tesfaye Ayehu ◽  
Tsegaye Tadesse ◽  
Berhan Gessesse ◽  
Tufa Dinku
Keyword(s):  
Validation Study ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Rainfall Occurrence ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Satellite Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Estimates ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Abstract. Accurate measurement of rainfall is vital to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation at various scales. However, the conventional rain gauge observations in many parts of the world such as Ethiopia are sparse and unevenly distributed. An alternative to traditional rain gauge observations could be satellite-based rainfall estimates. Satellite rainfall estimates could be used as a sole product (e.g. in areas with no (poor) ground observations) or through integrating with rain gauge measurements. In this study, the newly available Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data has been evaluated in comparison to rain gauge data for the period of 2000 to 2015 across the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia. Besides, the Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT) version 2 and 3 (TAMSAT 2 and TAMSAT 3) and the African Rainfall Climatology (ARC 2) products have been used as a benchmark and compared with CHIRPS. The TAMSAT 2 rainfall estimate was used in this study mainly to assess the improvements made with the recent version of a TAMSAT product (TAMSAT 3). From the overall analysis at dekadal and monthly temporal scale, CHIRPS exhibited higher skills and the best bias value in comparison to ARC 2 but overestimates the frequency of rainfall occurrence particularly during the dry months. On the other hand, TAMSAT 3 has shown very comparable performance with that of CHIRPS product, particularly with regards to bias. The ARC 2 product was found to have the weakest performance underestimating rainfall amounts by about 24 %. The skill of CHIRPS is less affected by variation in elevation in comparison to TAMSAT 3 and ARC 2 products. While ARC 2 was found to be affected by elevation with the average biases of 1.53, 0.86 and 0.77 at lower ( 2000 m a.s.l), respectively. Comparing the overall performance of the three products, CHIRPS exhibited the best performance followed closely by TAMSAT 3. This validation study also shows that the TAMSAT 3 has overcome the main weaknesses of TAMSAT 2, which is underestimation of high rainfall amounts by up to 31 % in this study. Overall, the finding of this validation study shows the potentials of CHIRPS product to be used for various operational applications such as rainfall pattern and variability study in the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia.

scholarly journals Validation of new satellite rainfall products over the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1921-1936 ◽  
Author(s):  
Getachew Tesfaye Ayehu ◽  
Tsegaye Tadesse ◽  
Berhan Gessesse ◽  
Tufa Dinku
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Rainfall Occurrence ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Satellite Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Estimates ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Abstract. Accurate measurement of rainfall is vital to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation at various scales. However, the conventional rain gauge observations in many parts of the world such as Ethiopia are sparse and unevenly distributed. An alternative to traditional rain gauge observations could be satellite-based rainfall estimates. Satellite rainfall estimates could be used as a sole product (e.g., in areas with no (or poor) ground observations) or through integrating with rain gauge measurements. In this study, the potential of a newly available Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall product has been evaluated in comparison to rain gauge data over the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia for the period of 2000 to 2015. In addition, the Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT 3) and the African Rainfall Climatology (ARC 2) products have been used as a benchmark and compared with CHIRPS. From the overall analysis at dekadal (10 days) and monthly temporal scale, CHIRPS exhibited better performance in comparison to TAMSAT 3 and ARC 2 products. An evaluation based on categorical/volumetric and continuous statistics indicated that CHIRPS has the greatest skills in detecting rainfall events (POD = 0.99, 1.00) and measure of volumetric rainfall (VHI = 1.00, 1.00), the highest correlation coefficients (r= 0.81, 0.88), better bias values (0.96, 0.96), and the lowest RMSE (28.45 mm dekad−1, 59.03 mm month−1) than TAMSAT 3 and ARC 2 products at dekadal and monthly analysis, respectively. CHIRPS overestimates the frequency of rainfall occurrence (up to 31 % at dekadal scale), although the volume of rainfall recorded during those events was very small. Indeed, TAMSAT 3 has shown a comparable performance with that of the CHIRPS product, mainly with regard to bias. The ARC 2 product was found to have the weakest performance underestimating rain gauge observed rainfall by about 24 %. In addition, the skill of CHIRPS is less affected by variation in elevation in comparison to TAMSAT 3 and ARC 2 products. CHIRPS resulted in average biases of 1.11, 0.99, and 1.00 at lower (< 1000 m a.s.l.), medium (1000 to 2000 m a.s.l.), and higher elevation (> 2000 m a.s.l.), respectively. Overall, the finding of this validation study shows the potentials of the CHIRPS product to be used for various operational applications such as rainfall pattern and variability study in the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia.

scholarly journals Comparing TRMM 3B42, CFSR and ground-based rainfall estimates as input for hydrological models, in data scarce regions: the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 2081-2112 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. W. Worqlul ◽  
A. S. Collick ◽  
S. A. Tilahun ◽  
S. Langan ◽  
T. H. M. Rientjes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Satellite Rainfall ◽  
Trmm 3B42 ◽  
Rainfall Estimates ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Abstract. Accurate prediction of hydrological models requires accurate spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall observation network. In developing countries rainfall observation station network are sparse and unevenly distributed. Satellite-based products have the potential to overcome these shortcomings. The objective of this study is to compare the advantages and the limitation of commonly used high-resolution satellite rainfall products as input to hydrological models as compared to sparsely populated network of rain gauges. For this comparison we use two semi-distributed hydrological models Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) and Parameter Efficient Distributed (PED) that performed well in Ethiopian highlands in two watersheds: the Gilgel Abay with relatively dense network and Main Beles with relatively scarce rain gauge stations. Both are located in the Upper Blue Nile Basin. The two models are calibrated with the observed discharge from 1994 to 2003 and validated from 2004 to 2006. Satellite rainfall estimates used includes Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 version 7 and ground rainfall measurements. The results indicated that both the gauged and the CFSR precipitation estimates were able to reproduce the stream flow well for both models and both watershed. TRMM 3B42 performed poorly with Nash Sutcliffe values less than 0.1. As expected the HBV model performed slightly better than the PED model, because HBV divides the watershed into sub-basins resulting in a greater number of calibration parameters. The simulated discharge for the Gilgel Abay was better than for the less well endowed (rain gauge wise) Main Beles. Finally surprisingly, the ground based gauge performed better for both watersheds (with the exception of extreme events) than TRMM and CFSR satellite rainfall estimates. Undoubtedly in the future, when improved satellite products will become available, this will change.

scholarly journals Multi-Dimensional Drought Assessment in Abbay/Upper Blue Nile Basin: The Importance of Shared Management and Regional Coordination Efforts for Mitigation

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1835
Author(s):  
Yared Bayissa ◽  
Semu Moges ◽  
Assefa Melesse ◽  
Tsegaye Tadesse ◽  
Anteneh Z. Abiy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Earth Observation ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Small Streams ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Drought is one of the least understood and complex natural hazards often characterized by a significant decrease in water availability for a prolonged period. It can be manifested in one or more forms as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and/or socio-economic drought. The overarching objective of this study is to demonstrate and characterize the different forms of droughts and to assess the multidimensional nature of drought in the Abbay/ Upper Blue Nile River (UBN) basin and its national and regional scale implications. In this study, multiple drought indices derived from in situ and earth observation-based hydro-climatic variables were used. The meteorological drought was characterized using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed from the earth observation-based gridded CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station) rainfall data. Agricultural and hydrological droughts were characterized by using the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) and Standardized Runoff-discharge Index (SRI), respectively. The monthly time series of SMDI was derived from model-based gridded soil moisture and SRI from observed streamflow data from 1982 to 2019. The preliminary result illustrates the good performance of the drought indices in capturing the historic severe drought events (e.g., 1984 and 2002) and the spatial extents across the basin. The results further indicated that all forms of droughts (i.e., meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological) occurred concurrently in Abbay/Upper Blue Nile basin with a Pearson correlation coefficient ranges from 0.5 to 0.85 both Kiremt and annual aggregate periods. The concurrent nature of drought is leading to a multi-dimensional socio-economic crisis as indicated by rainfall, and soil moisture deficits, and drying of small streams. Multi-dimensional drought mitigation necessitates regional cooperation and watershed management to protect both the common water sources of the Abbay/Upper Blue Nile basin and the socio-economic activities of the society in the basin. This study also underlines the need for multi-scale drought monitoring and management practices in the basin.

scholarly journals Changes in ecosystem service values strongly influenced by human activities in contrasting agro-ecological environments

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mulatu Liyew Berihun ◽  
Atsushi Tsunekawa ◽  
Nigussie Haregeweyn ◽  
Mitsuru Tsubo ◽  
Ayele Almaw Fenta
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Ecosystem Service ◽  
Cultivated Land ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Grazing Land ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Lulc Changes ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Abstract Background Evaluating the impacts of land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes on ecosystem service values (ESVs) is essential for sustainable use and management of ecosystems. In this study, we evaluated the impact of human activity driven LULC changes on ESVs over the period 1982–2016/17 in contrasting agro-ecological environments: Guder (highland), Aba Gerima (midland), and Debatie (lowland) watersheds of the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Results During the study period, the continuous expansion of cultivated land at the expense of natural vegetation (bushland, forest, and grazing land) severely reduced the total ESV by about US$ 58 thousand (35%) in Aba Gerima and US$ 31 thousand (29%) in Debatie watersheds. In contrast, the unprecedented expansion of plantations, mainly through the planting of Acacia decurrens, led, from 2006, to a ESV rebound by about US$ 71 thousand (54%) in Guder watershed, after it had decreased by about US$ 61 thousand (32%) between 1982 and 2006. The reduction in natural forest area was the major contributor to the loss of total ESV in the study watersheds, ranging from US$ 31 thousand (63%) in Debatie to US$ 96.9 thousand (70%) in Guder between 1982 and 2016/17. On an area-specific basis, LULC changes reduced the average ESV from US$ 560 ha−1 year−1 (1982) in Guder to US$ 306 ha−1 year−1 (2017) in Debatie watersheds. Specific ESVs such as provisioning (mainly as food production) and regulating services (mainly as erosion control and climate regulation) accounted for most of the total ESVs estimated for the study watersheds. Conclusions In most cases, the total and specific ESVs of the watersheds were negatively associated with the population growth, which in turn was positively associated with the expansion of cultivated land over the study period. In Guder, however, ESVs were positively associated with population growth, especially after 2012. This is mainly due to the expansion of Acacia decurrens plantations. Our results suggest, therefore, that future policy measures and directions should focus on improving vegetation cover through planting multipurpose trees such as Acacia decurrens to prevent future loss of ESV in the midland and lowland regions of the Upper Blue Nile basin and beyond. However, caution must be taken during plantation of invasive species as they may have undesirable consequences.

scholarly journals SWAT and HBV Models' response to streamflow estimation in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Belay B. Bizuneh ◽  
Mamaru A. Moges ◽  
Berhanu G. Sinshaw ◽  
Mulu S. Kerebih
Keyword(s):  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Streamflow Estimation ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin
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