Evaluation of Daily Precipitation from the ERA5 Global Reanalysis against GHCN Observations in the Northeastern United States

Precipitation is a primary input for hydrologic, agricultural, and engineering models, so making accurate estimates of it across the landscape is critically important. While the distribution of in-situ measurements of precipitation can lead to challenges in spatial interpolation, gridded precipitation information is designed to produce a full coverage product. In this study, we compare daily precipitation accumulations from the ERA5 Global Reanalysis (hereafter ERA5) and the US Global Historical Climate Network (hereafter GHCN) across the northeastern United States. We find that both the distance from the Atlantic Coast and elevation difference between ERA5 estimates and GHCN observations affect precipitation relationships between the two datasets. ERA5 has less precipitation along the coast than GHCN observations but more precipitation inland. Elevation differences between ERA5 and GHCN observations are positively correlated with precipitation differences. Isolated GHCN stations on mountain peaks, with elevations well above the ERA5 model grid elevation, have much higher precipitation. Summer months (June, July, and August) have slightly less precipitation in ERA5 than GHCN observations, perhaps due to the ERA5 convective parameterization scheme. The heavy precipitation accumulation above the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentile thresholds are very similar for ERA5 and the GHCN. We find that daily precipitation in the ERA5 dataset is comparable to GHCN observations in the northeastern United States and its gridded spatial continuity has advantages over in-situ point precipitation measurements for regional modeling applications.

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Temporal Changes in the Areal Coverage of Daily Extreme Precipitation in the Northeastern United States Using High-Resolution Gridded Data

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology ◽

10.1175/jamc-d-19-0210.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 59 (3) ◽

pp. 551-565

Author(s):

Arthur T. DeGaetano ◽

Griffin Mooers ◽

Thomas Favata

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Daily Precipitation ◽

Precipitation Amount ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Northeastern United States ◽

Precipitation Frequency ◽

Polygon Area ◽

Areal Precipitation ◽

Grid Points

AbstractTime-dependent changes in extreme precipitation occurrence across the northeastern United States are evaluated in terms of areal extent. Using gridded precipitation data for the period from 1950 to 2018, polygons are defined that are based on isohyets corresponding to extreme daily precipitation accumulations. Across the region, areal precipitation is characterized on the basis of the annual and seasonal number of extreme precipitation polygons and the area of the polygons. Using the subset of grid points that correspond to station locations in the northeastern United States, gridded precipitation replicates the observed trends in extreme precipitation based on station observations. Although the number of extreme precipitation polygons does not change significantly through time, there is a marked increase in the area covered by the polygons. The median annual polygon area nearly doubles from 1950 to 2013. Consistent results occur for percentiles other than the median and a range of extreme precipitation amount thresholds, with the most pronounced changes observed in spring and summer. Like trends in station data, outside the northeastern United States trends in extreme precipitation polygon area are negative, particularly in the western United States, or they are not statistically significant. Collectively, the results suggest that the increases in heavy precipitation frequency and amount observed at stations in the northeastern United States are a manifestation of an expansion of the spatial area over which extreme precipitation occurs rather than a change in the number of unique extreme precipitation polygons.

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Changes in Observed Daily Precipitation over the United States between 1950–79 and 1980–2009

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-12-062.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

pp. 105-121 ◽

Cited By ~ 31

Author(s):

R. W. Higgins ◽

V. E. Kousky

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Great Plains ◽

El Niño ◽

Daily Precipitation ◽

El Nino ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

The United States ◽

Enso Cycle ◽

Precipitation Events

Abstract Changes in observed daily precipitation over the conterminous United States between two 30-yr periods (1950–79 and 1980–2009) are examined using a 60-yr daily precipitation analysis obtained from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Unified Raingauge Database. Several simple measures are used to characterize the changes, including mean, frequency, intensity, and return period. Seasonality is accounted for by examining each measure for four nonoverlapping seasons. The possible role of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle as an explanation for differences between the two periods is also examined. There have been more light (1 mm ≤ P < 10 mm), moderate (10 mm ≤ P < 25 mm), and heavy (P ≥ 25 mm) daily precipitation events (P) in many regions of the country during the more recent 30-yr period with some of the largest and most spatially coherent increases over the Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley during autumn and winter. Some regions, such as portions of the Southeast and the Pacific Northwest, have seen decreases, especially during the winter. Increases in multiday heavy precipitation events have been observed in the more recent period, especially over portions of the Great Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. These changes are associated with changes in the mean and frequency of daily precipitation during the more recent 30-yr period. Difference patterns are strongly related to the ENSO cycle and are consistent with the stronger El Niño events during the more recent 30-yr period. Return periods for both heavy and light daily precipitation events during 1950–79 are shorter during 1980–2009 at most locations, with some notable regional exceptions.

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Improved reconstruction of the southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet deglaciation: constraining ice thinning using in-situ cosmogenic 10Be and 14C and critically evaluating different retreat rate chronometers

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11787 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Christopher Halsted ◽

Jeremy Shakun ◽

Lee Corbett ◽

Paul Bierman ◽

P. Thompson Davis ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Laurentide Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Thickness ◽

Northeastern United States ◽

Terminal Moraine ◽

Ice Volume ◽

Ice Retreat ◽

Exposure Ages

In the northeastern United States, there are extensive geochronologic and geomorphic constraints on the deglaciation of the southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet; thus, it is an ideal area for large-scale ice volume reconstructions and comparison between different ice retreat chronometers. Varve chronologies, lake and bog-bottom radiocarbon ages, and cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages constrain the timing of ice retreat, but the inferred ages exhibit considerable noise and sometimes disagree. Additionally, there are few empirical constraints on ice thinning, forcing ice volume reconstructions to rely on geophysically-based ice thickness models. Here, we aim to improve the understanding of the southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet recession by (1) adding extensive ice thickness constraints and (2) compiling all available deglacial chronology data in the region to investigate discrepancies between different chronometers.To provide insight about ice sheet thinning history, we collected 120 samples for in-situ 10Be and 10 samples for in-situ 14C cosmogenic exposure dating from various elevations at 13 mountains in the northeastern United States. By calculating ages of exposure at different elevations across this region, we reconstruct paleo-ice surface lowering of the southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet during deglaciation. Where we suspect that 10Be remains from pre-Last Glacial Maximum periods of exposure, in-situ 14C is used to infer the erosional history and minimum exposure age of samples.Presently, we have measured 10Be in 73 samples. Mountain-top exposure ages located within 150 km of the southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet terminal moraine indicate that near-margin thinning began early in the deglacial period (~19.5 to 17.5 ka), coincident with the slow initial margin retreat indicated by varve records. Exposure ages from several mountains further inland (>400 km north of terminal moraine) collected over ~1000 m of elevation range record rapid ice thinning between 14.5 and 13 ka. Ages within each of these vertical transects are similar within 1&#963; internal uncertainty, indicating that ice thinned quickly, less than a few hundred years at most. This rapid thinning occurred at about the same time that varve records indicate accelerated ice margin retreat (14.6&#8211;12.9 ka), providing evidence of substantial ice volume loss during the B&#248;lling-Aller&#248;d warm period.Our critical evaluation of deglacial chronometers, including valley-bottom 10Be ages from this project, is intended to constrain ice margin retreat rates and timing in the region. Ultimately, we will integrate our ice thickness over time constraints with the existing network of deglacial ages to create a probabilistic reconstructions of the southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet volume during its recession through the northeastern United States.

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Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-15-0441.1 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 29 (7) ◽

pp. 2313-2332 ◽

Cited By ~ 46

Author(s):

Martin Hoerling ◽

Jon Eischeid ◽

Judith Perlwitz ◽

Xiao-Wei Quan ◽

Klaus Wolter ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Daily Precipitation ◽

Warm Season ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Cold Season ◽

Tropical Eastern Pacific ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

Daily Events ◽

Northern United States

Abstract Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979–2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increases in precipitation associated with heavy daily events across the northern United States and decreases across the southern United States. Diagnosis of climate simulations (CCSM4 and CAM4) reveals that the evolution of observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) was a more important factor influencing these trends than boundary condition changes linked to external radiative forcing alone. Since 1979, the latter induces widespread, but mostly weak, increases in precipitation associated with heavy daily events. The former induces a meridional pattern of northern U.S. increases and southern U.S. decreases as observed, the magnitude of which closely aligns with observed changes, especially over the south and far west. Analysis of model ensemble spread reveals that appreciable 35-yr trends in heavy daily precipitation can occur in the absence of forcing, thereby limiting detection of the weak anthropogenic influence at regional scales. Analysis of the seasonality in heavy daily precipitation trends supports physical arguments that their changes during 1979–2013 have been intimately linked to internal decadal ocean variability and less so to human-induced climate change. Most of the southern U.S. decrease has occurred during the cold season that has been dynamically driven by an atmospheric circulation reminiscent of teleconnections linked to cold tropical eastern Pacific SSTs. Most of the northeastern U.S. increase has been a warm season phenomenon, the immediate cause for which remains unresolved.

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ATLANTIC COAST RIVERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

Rivers of North America ◽

10.1016/b978-012088253-3/50005-5 ◽

2005 ◽

pp. 20-71 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

JOHN K. JACKSON ◽

ALEXANDER D. HURYN ◽

DAVID L. STRAYER ◽

DAVID L. COURTEMANCH ◽

BERNARD W. SWEENEY

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Atlantic Coast ◽

Northeastern United States

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Effect of Cleaning Multiple-Funnel Traps on Captures of Bark and Woodboring Beetles in Northeastern United States

Insects ◽

10.3390/insects11100702 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 702

Author(s):

Kevin J. Dodds ◽

Marc F. DiGirolomo

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Species Richness ◽

Bark Beetle ◽

Bark Beetles ◽

Beetle Species ◽

Conifer Forests ◽

Northeastern United States ◽

Species Richness And Abundance ◽

Broad Scale

Two experiments were conducted in mixed hardwood-conifer forests in the northeastern United States to test the effects of cleaning surfactant and non-surfactant treated multiple-funnel traps used to catch bark and woodboring beetles. Large amounts of pollen and other debris often form a crust on the interior of traps (personal observations). Such surface deposits may provide footholds for beetles to escape capture in traps. In one experiment, we tested cleaned surfactant and non-surfactant traps against non-cleaned surfactant and non-surfactant traps. In a second experiment, we tested field cleaning of modified multiple-funnel traps as an alternative to substituting clean traps on each collection visit. There was no effect of surfactant treated traps, cleaned or not, on total beetles or individual bark beetle species captured. However, in situ cleaned traps were statistically better at capturing total beetles, total bark beetles, and several bark beetle species than non-cleaned control traps. Surfactant-treated non-modified traps and cleaned modified traps had higher species richness and abundance than other treatments at the site level. Our results suggest that cleaning traps to remove accumulated pollen and debris may be helpful for some species but would have limited benefit for broad-scale trapping of bark and woodboring beetles in northeastern forests.

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Relationships between Climate Variability and Fluctuations in Daily Precipitation over the United States

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli4196.1 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 20 (14) ◽

pp. 3561-3579 ◽

Cited By ~ 73

Author(s):

R. W. Higgins ◽

V. B. S. Silva ◽

W. Shi ◽

J. Larson

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Climate Models ◽

Daily Precipitation ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

The United States ◽

Global Scale ◽

The Arctic ◽

Teleconnection Patterns

Abstract Fluctuations in the frequency of daily precipitation occurrence and in the intensity of daily precipitation over the United States during the period 1948–2004 are identified and linked to leading sources of interannual and interdecadal climate variability. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena are implicated in interannual fluctuations while the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are linked to recent interdecadal fluctuations. For the conterminous United States as a whole there have been increases in the annual frequency of occurrence of wet days and heavy precipitation days and in the mean daily and annual total precipitation over the past several decades, though these changes have not been uniform. The possibility of significant natural forcing of these interdecadal variations in precipitation is explored. It is shown that the PDO is associated with these fluctuations over the western and southern United States, while the AO is also associated with them but to a much lesser extent over the southeastern United States. Because the interdecadal fluctuations are linked to changes in the global-scale circulation and sea surface temperatures associated with the PDO, the results imply that a significant portion of the skill of climate models in anticipating fluctuations in daily precipitation statistics over the United States will arise from an ability to forecast the temporal and spatial variability of the interdecadal shifts in tropical precipitation and in the associated teleconnection patterns into the midlatitudes.

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