scholarly journals Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 2313-2332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Hoerling ◽  
Jon Eischeid ◽  
Judith Perlwitz ◽  
Xiao-Wei Quan ◽  
Klaus Wolter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Tropical Eastern Pacific ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Daily Events ◽  
Northern United States

Abstract Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979–2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increases in precipitation associated with heavy daily events across the northern United States and decreases across the southern United States. Diagnosis of climate simulations (CCSM4 and CAM4) reveals that the evolution of observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) was a more important factor influencing these trends than boundary condition changes linked to external radiative forcing alone. Since 1979, the latter induces widespread, but mostly weak, increases in precipitation associated with heavy daily events. The former induces a meridional pattern of northern U.S. increases and southern U.S. decreases as observed, the magnitude of which closely aligns with observed changes, especially over the south and far west. Analysis of model ensemble spread reveals that appreciable 35-yr trends in heavy daily precipitation can occur in the absence of forcing, thereby limiting detection of the weak anthropogenic influence at regional scales. Analysis of the seasonality in heavy daily precipitation trends supports physical arguments that their changes during 1979–2013 have been intimately linked to internal decadal ocean variability and less so to human-induced climate change. Most of the southern U.S. decrease has occurred during the cold season that has been dynamically driven by an atmospheric circulation reminiscent of teleconnections linked to cold tropical eastern Pacific SSTs. Most of the northeastern U.S. increase has been a warm season phenomenon, the immediate cause for which remains unresolved.

scholarly journals Understanding Land-Atmosphere-Climate Coupling from the Canadian Prairie Dataset

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan K Betts ◽  
Raymond L Desjardins
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Canadian Prairie ◽  
Cloud Forcing

Analysis of the hourly Canadian Prairie data for the past 60 years has transformed our quantitative understanding of land-atmosphere-cloud coupling. The key reason is that trained observers made hourly estimates of opaque cloud fraction that obscures the sun, moon or stars, following the same protocol for 60 years at all stations. These 24 daily estimates of opaque cloud data are of sufficient quality that they can be calibrated against Baseline Surface Radiation Network data to give the climatology of the daily short-wave, longwave and total cloud forcing (SWCF, LWCF and CF). This key radiative forcing has not been available previously for climate datasets. Net cloud radiative forcing reverses sign from negative in the warm season to positive in the cold season, when reflective snow reduces the negative SWCF below the positive LWCF. This in turn leads to a large climate discontinuity with snow cover, with a systematic cooling of 10°C or more with snow cover. In addition, snow cover transforms the coupling between cloud cover and the diurnal range of temperature. In the warm season, maximum temperature increases with decreasing cloud, while minimum temperature barely changes; while in the cold season with snow cover, maximum temperature decreases with decreasing cloud and minimum temperature decreases even more. In the warm season, the diurnal ranges of temperature, relative humidity, equivalent potential temperature and the pressure height of the lifting condensation level are all tightly coupled to opaque cloud cover. Given over 600 station-years of hourly data, we are able to extract, perhaps for the first time, the coupling between cloud forcing and the warm season imbalance of the diurnal cycle; which changes monotonically from a warming and drying under clear skies to a cooling and moistening under cloudy skies with precipitation. Because we have the daily cloud radiative forci, which is large, we are able to show that the memory of water storage anomalies, from precipitation and the snowpack, goes back many months. The spring climatology shows the memory of snowfall back through the entire winter, and the memory in summer goes back to the months of snowmelt. Lagged precipitation anomalies modify the thermodynamic coupling of the diurnal cycle to the cloud forcing, and shift the diurnal cycle of mixing ratio which has a double peak. The seasonal extraction of the surface total water storage is a large damping of the interannual variability of precipitation anomalies in the growing season. The large land-use change from summer fallow to intensive cropping, which peaked in the early 1990s, has led to a coupled climate response that has cooled and moistened the growing season, lowering cloud-base, increasing equivalent potential temperature, and increasing precipitation. We show a simplified energy balance of the Prairies during the growing season and its dependence on reflective cloud.

Changes in Observed Daily Precipitation over the United States between 1950–79 and 1980–2009

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. W. Higgins ◽  
V. E. Kousky
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Changes in observed daily precipitation over the conterminous United States between two 30-yr periods (1950–79 and 1980–2009) are examined using a 60-yr daily precipitation analysis obtained from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Unified Raingauge Database. Several simple measures are used to characterize the changes, including mean, frequency, intensity, and return period. Seasonality is accounted for by examining each measure for four nonoverlapping seasons. The possible role of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle as an explanation for differences between the two periods is also examined. There have been more light (1 mm ≤ P < 10 mm), moderate (10 mm ≤ P < 25 mm), and heavy (P ≥ 25 mm) daily precipitation events (P) in many regions of the country during the more recent 30-yr period with some of the largest and most spatially coherent increases over the Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley during autumn and winter. Some regions, such as portions of the Southeast and the Pacific Northwest, have seen decreases, especially during the winter. Increases in multiday heavy precipitation events have been observed in the more recent period, especially over portions of the Great Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. These changes are associated with changes in the mean and frequency of daily precipitation during the more recent 30-yr period. Difference patterns are strongly related to the ENSO cycle and are consistent with the stronger El Niño events during the more recent 30-yr period. Return periods for both heavy and light daily precipitation events during 1950–79 are shorter during 1980–2009 at most locations, with some notable regional exceptions.

scholarly journals Understanding Land–Atmosphere–Climate Coupling from the Canadian Prairie Dataset

Environments ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (12) ◽  
pp. 129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Betts ◽  
Raymond Desjardins
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Canadian Prairie ◽  
Cloud Forcing

Analysis of the hourly Canadian Prairie data for the past 60 years has transformed our quantitative understanding of land–atmosphere–cloud coupling. The key reason is that trained observers made hourly estimates of the opaque cloud fraction that obscures the sun, moon, or stars, following the same protocol for 60 years at all stations. These 24 daily estimates of opaque cloud data are of sufficient quality such that they can be calibrated against Baseline Surface Radiation Network data to yield the climatology of the daily short-wave, long-wave, and total cloud forcing (SWCF, LWCF and CF, respectively). This key radiative forcing has not been available previously for climate datasets. Net cloud radiative forcing changes sign from negative in the warm season, to positive in the cold season, when reflective snow reduces the negative SWCF below the positive LWCF. This in turn leads to a large climate discontinuity with snow cover, with a systematic cooling of 10 °C or more with snow cover. In addition, snow cover transforms the coupling between cloud cover and the diurnal range of temperature. In the warm season, maximum temperature increases with decreasing cloud, while minimum temperature barely changes; while in the cold season with snow cover, maximum temperature decreases with decreasing cloud, and minimum temperature decreases even more. In the warm season, the diurnal ranges of temperature, relative humidity, equivalent potential temperature, and the pressure height of the lifting condensation level are all tightly coupled to the opaque cloud cover. Given over 600 station-years of hourly data, we are able to extract, perhaps for the first time, the coupling between the cloud forcing and the warm season imbalance of the diurnal cycle, which changes monotonically from a warming and drying under clear skies to a cooling and moistening under cloudy skies with precipitation. Because we have the daily cloud radiative forcing, which is large, we are able to show that the memory of water storage anomalies, from precipitation and the snowpack, goes back many months. The spring climatology shows the memory of snowfall back through the entire winter, and the memory in summer, goes back to the months of snowmelt. Lagged precipitation anomalies modify the thermodynamic coupling of the diurnal cycle to the cloud forcing, and shift the diurnal cycle of the mixing ratio, which has a double peak. The seasonal extraction of the surface total water storage is a large damping of the interannual variability of precipitation anomalies in the growing season. The large land-use change from summer fallow to intensive cropping, which peaked in the early 1990s, has led to a coupled climate response that has cooled and moistened the growing season, lowering cloud-base, increasing equivalent potential temperature, and increasing precipitation. We show a simplified energy balance of the Prairies during the growing season, and its dependence on reflective cloud.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Daily Precipitation from the ERA5 Global Reanalysis against GHCN Observations in the Northeastern United States

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 148
Author(s):  
Caitlin C. Crossett ◽  
Alan K. Betts ◽  
Lesley-Ann L. Dupigny-Giroux ◽  
Arne Bomblies
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Northeastern United States ◽  
Primary Input ◽  
Spatial Continuity ◽  
June July ◽  
Global Reanalysis

Precipitation is a primary input for hydrologic, agricultural, and engineering models, so making accurate estimates of it across the landscape is critically important. While the distribution of in-situ measurements of precipitation can lead to challenges in spatial interpolation, gridded precipitation information is designed to produce a full coverage product. In this study, we compare daily precipitation accumulations from the ERA5 Global Reanalysis (hereafter ERA5) and the US Global Historical Climate Network (hereafter GHCN) across the northeastern United States. We find that both the distance from the Atlantic Coast and elevation difference between ERA5 estimates and GHCN observations affect precipitation relationships between the two datasets. ERA5 has less precipitation along the coast than GHCN observations but more precipitation inland. Elevation differences between ERA5 and GHCN observations are positively correlated with precipitation differences. Isolated GHCN stations on mountain peaks, with elevations well above the ERA5 model grid elevation, have much higher precipitation. Summer months (June, July, and August) have slightly less precipitation in ERA5 than GHCN observations, perhaps due to the ERA5 convective parameterization scheme. The heavy precipitation accumulation above the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentile thresholds are very similar for ERA5 and the GHCN. We find that daily precipitation in the ERA5 dataset is comparable to GHCN observations in the northeastern United States and its gridded spatial continuity has advantages over in-situ point precipitation measurements for regional modeling applications.

Observing Climate at High Elevations Using United States Climate Reference Network Approaches

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1137-1143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Palecki ◽  
Pavel Ya. Groisman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Environments ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Reference Network ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Great Reliability ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
Northern United States ◽  
Network Approaches

Abstract The U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) was deployed between 2001 and 2008 for the purpose of yielding high-quality and temporally stable in situ climate observations in pristine environments over the twenty-first century. Given this mission, USCRN stations are engineered to operate largely autonomously with great reliability and accuracy. A triplicate approach is used to provide redundant measurements of temperature and precipitation at each location, allowing for observations at a specific time to be compared for quality control. This approach has proven to be robust in the most extreme environments, from extreme cold (−49°C) to extreme heat (+52°C), in areas of heavy precipitation (4700 mm yr−1), and in locations impacted by strong winds, freezing rain, and other hazards. In addition to a number of stations enduring extreme winter environments in Alaska and the northern United States, seven of the USCRN stations are located at elevations over 2000 m, including stations on Mauna Loa, Hawaii (3407 m) and on Niwot Ridge above Boulder, Colorado (2996 m). The USCRN temperature instruments and radiation shield have also been installed and run successfully at a station on the Quelccaya Ice Cap in Peru (5670 m). This paper reviews the performance of the USCRN station network during its brief lifetime and the potential utility of its triplicate temperature instrument configuration for measuring climate change at elevation.

scholarly journals An anomalous atmospheric river linked to the late June 2021 western North America heatwave

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruping Mo ◽  
Hai Lin ◽  
Frédéric Vitart
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Feedback Mechanism ◽  
Western North America ◽  
Water Vapour Flux ◽  
The North

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow bands of enhanced water vapour flux concentrated in the lower troposphere. Many studies have documented the important role of cold-season ARs in producing heavy precipitation and triggering extreme flooding in many parts of the world. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the warm-season ARs and their impacts on extreme heatwave development. Here we show an anomalous warm-season AR moving across the North Pacific and its interaction with the western North American heatwave in late June 2021. We call it an “oriental express’’ to highlight its capability to transport tropical moisture to the west coast of North America from sources in Southeast Asia. Its landfall over the Alaska Panhandle lasted for more than two days and resulted in significant spillover of moisture into western Canada. We provide evidence that the injected water vapour was trapped under the heat dome and may have formed a positive feedback mechanism to regulate the heatwave development in western North America.

scholarly journals Organization of Flash-Flood-Producing Precipitation in the Northeast United States

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 345-361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen M. Jessup ◽  
Stephen J. Colucci
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Flash Flooding ◽  
Radar Signature ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Linear Types ◽  
Precipitation Estimates

Abstract Heavy precipitation and flash flooding have been extensively studied in the central United States, but less so in the Northeast. This study examines 187 warm-season flash flood events identified in Storm Data to better understand the structure of the precipitation systems that cause flash flooding in the Northeast. Based on the organization and movement of these systems on radar, the events are classified into one of four categories—back-building, linear, multiple, and other/size—and then further classified into subtypes for each category. Eight of these subtypes were not previously recognized in the literature. The back-building events were the most common, followed by the multiple, other/size, and linear types. The linear event types appear to produce flash flooding less commonly in the Northeast than in other regions. In general, the subtypes producing the highest precipitation estimates are those whose structures are most conducive to a long duration of sustained moderate to heavy rainfall. The event types were found to differ from those in the central United States in that the events were more often found to be more disorganized in the Northeast. One event type in particular, back-building with merging features, while not more disorganized than the previously recognized event types, offers promise for improved forecasting because its radar signature makes the duration of sustained heavy precipitation potentially easier to predict.

scholarly journals Increasing frequencies and changing characteristics of heavy precipitation events threatening infrastructure in Europe under climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 1177-1190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrin M. Nissen ◽  
Uwe Ulbrich
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
European Regions ◽  
Event Duration ◽  
Novel Technique ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Daily Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The effect of climate change on potentially infrastructure-damaging heavy precipitation events in Europe is investigated in an ensemble of regional climate simulations conducted at a horizontal resolution of 12 km. Based on legislation and stakeholder interviews the 10-year return period is used as a threshold for the detection of relevant events. A novel technique for the identification of heavy precipitation events is introduced. It records not only event frequency but also event size, duration and severity (a measure taking duration, size and rain amount into account) as these parameters determine the potential consequences of the event. Over most of Europe the frequency of relevant heavy precipitation events is predicted to increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The number of daily and multi-day events increases at a lower rate than the number of sub-daily events. The event size is predicted to increase in the future over many European regions, especially for sub-daily events. Moreover, the most severe events were detected in the projection period. The predicted changes in frequency, size and intensity of events may increase the risk for infrastructure damages. The climate change simulations do not show changes in event duration.

scholarly journals Precipitation Extremes: Trends and Relationships with Average Precipitation and Precipitable Water in the Contiguous United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth E. Kunkel ◽  
Thomas R. Karl ◽  
Michael F. Squires ◽  
Xungang Yin ◽  
Steve T. Stegall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rocky Mountains ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Average Return ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Average Precipitation

AbstractTrends of extreme precipitation (EP) using various combinations of average return intervals (ARIs) of 1, 2, 5, 10, and 20 years with durations of 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, and 30 days were calculated regionally across the contiguous United States. Changes in the sign of the trend of EP vary by region as well as by ARI and duration, despite the statistically significant upward trends for all combinations of EP thresholds when area averaged across the contiguous United States. Spatially, there is a pronounced east-to-west gradient in the trends of the EP with strong upward trends east of the Rocky Mountains. In general, upward trends are larger and more significant for longer ARIs, but the contribution to the trend in total seasonal and annual precipitation is significantly larger for shorter ARIs because they occur more frequently. Across much of the contiguous United States, upward trends of warm-season EP are substantially larger than those for the cold season and have a substantially greater effect on the annual trend in total precipitation. This result occurs even in areas where the total precipitation is nearly evenly divided between the cold and warm seasons. When compared with short-duration events, long-duration events—for example, 30 days—contribute the most to annual trends. Coincident statistically significant upward trends of EP and precipitable water (PW) occur in many regions, especially during the warm season. Increases in PW are likely to be one of several factors responsible for the increase in EP (and average total precipitation) observed in many areas across the contiguous United States.

Evaluating the Reliability of the U.S. Cooperative Observer Program Precipitation Observations for Extreme Events Analysis Using the LTAR Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 317-332
Author(s):  
Eleonora M. C. Demaria ◽  
David C. Goodrich ◽  
Kenneth E. Kunkel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
The United States ◽  
Observation Time ◽  
Dense Networks ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Precipitation Characteristics

AbstractThe detection and attribution of changes in precipitation characteristics relies on dense networks of rain gauges. In the United States, the COOP network is widely used for such studies even though there are reported inconsistencies due to changes in instruments and location, inadequate maintenance, dissimilar observation time, and the fact that measurements are made by a group of dedicated volunteers. Alternately, the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network has been consistently and professionally measuring precipitation since the early 1930s. The purpose of this study is to compare changes in extreme daily precipitation characteristics during the warm season using paired rain gauges from the LTAR and COOP networks. The comparison, done at 12 LTAR sites located across the United States, shows underestimation and overestimation of daily precipitation totals at the COOP sites compared to the reference LTAR observations. However, the magnitude and direction of the differences are not linked to the underlying precipitation climatology of the sites. Precipitation indices that focus on extreme precipitation characteristics match closely between the two networks at most of the sites. Our results show consistency between the COOP and LTAR networks with precipitation extremes. It also indicates that despite the discrepancies at the daily time steps, the extreme precipitation observed by COOP rain gauges can be reliably used to characterize changes in the hydrologic cycle due to natural and human causes.

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