scholarly journals Coherence and Entropy of Credit Cycles across the Euro Area Candidate Countries

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (9) ◽  
pp. 1213
Author(s):  
Adina Criste ◽  
Iulia Lupu ◽  
Radu Lupu
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Euro Adoption ◽  
Credit Cycles ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Credit Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The pattern of financial cycles in the European Union has direct impacts on financial stability and economic sustainability in view of adoption of the euro. The purpose of the article is to identify the degree of coherence of credit cycles in the countries potentially seeking to adopt the euro with the credit cycle inside the Eurozone. We first estimate the credit cycles in the selected countries and in the euro area (at the aggregate level) and filter the series with the Hodrick–Prescott filter for the period 1999Q1–2020Q4. Based on these values, we compute the indicators that define the credit cycle similarity and synchronicity in the selected countries and a set of entropy measures (block entropy, entropy rate, Bayesian entropy) to show the high degree of heterogeneity, noting that the manifestation of the global financial crisis has changed the credit cycle patterns in some countries. Our novel approach provides analytical tools to cope with euro adoption decisions, showing how the coherence of credit cycles can be increased among European countries and how the national macroprudential policies can be better coordinated, especially in light of changes caused by the pandemic crisis.

scholarly journals Exchange rate regimes and external financial stability

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (209) ◽  
pp. 27-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ovidiu Stoica ◽  
Iulian Ihnatov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Regimes ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Alternative Regime

Financial stability within the framework of the global financial crisis has become a common topic for researchers and practitioners. In order to analyse the impact of exchange rate regimes on financial stability we use both the de jure and de facto exchange rate classifications. We apply the model to a 1999-2010 annual data sample for 135 countries and territories, grouped by the level of economic development. Our second focus is the investigation of the effects of the exchange rate regimes in three economic integration areas (member countries of the European Union 27, the Southern Common Market, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) on financial stability. Our results generally support the central banks? concerns that the flexibility of exchange rate regimes should be reduced in order to sustain financial stability; however, the findings are not robust when using alternative regime classifications.

scholarly journals Comparative Analysis of Financial Stability Policy of The National Bank of Serbia and The European Central Bank

2015 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 142-161
Author(s):  
Mirjana Jemović ◽  
Borko Krstić
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
System Stability ◽  
The European Union ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Eu

AbstractThe Republic of Serbia has successfully completed the first part in the European Union integration process, being granted candidate status for membership in the European Union (EU). The stage of accession negotiations is in progress, and it includes the full harmonization with the EU acquis, whereby the analytical review of legislation, the so-called screening is being carried out in 35 chapters. The global financial crisis that affected our country in 2008 has required a timely reaction of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) in order to preserve the financial system stability, especially the banking sector as its most important segment. As the financial services sector adjusts within chapter 9, the aim of this paper is to assess the level of compliance of national legislation with the EU legislation regarding banking sector. Along with the regulatory initiatives in the field of preserving financial stability in the EU countries, the NBS has paid great attention to the harmonization of its financial stability policy with the financial stability policy of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB).

scholarly journals Fiscal Policy in the EU Countries Most Affected by the Crisis: Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-27
Author(s):  
Anna Krajewska
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
International Institutions ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Eu

The global financial crisis which began in 2007-2008 had a negative effect on the economy of the European Union, mainly in selected countries of the euro area: Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. These peripheral euro zone countries come out of recession and the financial crisis largely due to the great financial support of the international institutions. Hundreds of billions of euro were spent to save these economies. At the same time, however, these countries were characterized by the lowest level of fiscal policy - measured by share of taxes in GDP - among the countries of the euro area. In this paper I will try to answer the following questions:1. What were the causes of the downturn in those countries, and what restructuring actions were taken;2. What changes were introduced in the tax system under the policy to repair public finances;3 .How have these changes affected the level and the structure of budget revenues from taxes, and to what extent has the crisis affected the change in the tax burden on consumption, labour, and capital.

The Euro Area In Crisis, 2008–18

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christos Hadjiemmanuil
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Deep Recession ◽  
The Eu

In autumn 2008, just as the euro was approaching its tenth anniversary, the European Union (EU) became embroiled in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Elsewhere in the world, including in the US, where it originated, the GFC caused a very deep recession but then receded, and was essentially over by the end of 2009. In the EU, however, it took a double-dip form, with the EU-28 area’s real gross domestic product (GDP) suffering a -4.4 per cent fall in 2009 and another -0.5 per cent fall in 2012. The timing and impact of the crisis differed significantly across Member States, and the recovery was uneven. Taken as a whole, the euro area (EA19) performed worse than the rest of the EU, especially in 2012–13, when it lost -1.3 per cent of GDP, and only returned to its 2007 GDP level in 2015.

scholarly journals DEFINING “FINANCIAL STABILITY”

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Stanisław Stefaniak
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Legal Analysis ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Policy Documents ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Regulatory

After the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 the term “financial stability” rose to prominence in financial regulatory circles. The paper employs methodological tools from political economy, discourse analysis and comparative legal analysis to track the trajectory of this rise in the narratives of scholarship on financial law, policy documents and relevant European legislation and finds that the meaning of the term is subject to change and malleable. It is argued that the substance of financial stability can only be deciphered once the broader ideas about the functioning of financial markets and roles of central banks are taken into context. It is then established that these ideas were redefined in the aftermath of the GFC in line with the new macroprudential paradigm, and how they came to inform subsequent policies and legislation in the European Union.

scholarly journals THE ROLE OF INTEGRATED ISLAMIC COMMERCIAL AND SOCIAL FINANCE FOR CURBING CREDIT CYCLES AND ACHIEVING MACROPRUDENTIAL OBJECTIVE

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-180
Author(s):  
Arif Widodo
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Islamic Finance ◽  
Credit Cycles ◽  
Credit Cycle

It is widely believed that Islamic finance is inherently stable since the principle of risk-sharing and linking the financial to real counterpart in particular through its social finance are applied, hence the financial stability may successfully be attained. If mimicking the conventional finance, Islamic model will probably be facing instability, following the financial cycle. There has been a growing literature discussing credit cycle in mainstream perspective since 2008 global financial crash. However, it is quite rare to find study, in macro context, on credit cycles and the effectiveness of integrated Islamic commercial and social finance in achieving macroprudential objective: curtailing excessive credit. This study is designed to empirically examine the characteristics of cycles stemming from conventional and Islamic credit whether both have similar trend and also to investigate how the integrated Islamic commercial and social finance may be effective to hamper such cycles. By employing Hodrick-Presscot Filter, Markov Switching and Vector Error Correction Model, this study demonstrates that, in terms of cycle, Islamic model cycle has certain similarities with conventional counterpart since it functions under similar financial environment despite the fact that Islamic has less amplitude compared with conventional credit. Both credit and financing cycles tend to grow rapidly (excessive) several months before global financial crisis happened in 2008. This means that, in a dual banking system, credit and financing boom may precede financial crisis. Moreover, it is apparent also that the integrated Islamic finance is proven to be effective in curbing credit growth due to the effectiveness of both macroprudential instrument applied in banking sector and social finance in safeguarding financial stability. Keywords:  Credit cycle, Macroprudential policy, Markov Switching, HP filter JEL Classification: E32, E51, G29

scholarly journals A Comparative Analysis of Macroprudential Policy across Euro Area Candidate Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Adina CRISTE ◽  
Iulia LUPU
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Potential Role ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
The One ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Concerns to setting an appropriate overall macroprudential policy framework have taken shape at local, regional, and global level since the onset of the global financial crisis. At regional level, a particular case is that of the European Union, given the national-supranational relationship specific to this economic region. The article aims to identify the macroprudential policy condition of the Euro Area candidate countries, by using an index built on some criteria that describe on the one hand, the capacity of macroprudential policy governance and the “activism” of macroprudential authority, and, on the other hand, the degree of compliance with the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) recommendations for national macroprudential authorities, given that the countries under review are member states of the European Union. Our findings show that the Euro Area candidate countries have quite different macroprudential policy features, both in terms of its governance and in terms of the “convergence” towards ESRB recommendations. Although the analysis should be extended by adding other relevant criteria, we can assert that it offers an overview of the potential role of the national macroprudential policy as a shock-absorber instrument in the perspective of a future accession to the Euro Area.

26. The Euro Crisis and European Integration

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dermot Hodson ◽  
Uwe Puetter
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Complex Relationship ◽  
Euro Crisis ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This chapter examines how the European Union addressed the euro crisis that emerged in late 2009, two years after the global financial crisis. It first considers the complex relationship between the euro crisis and the global financial crisis before discussing the challenges the euro crisis has posed to the existing institutional set-up of the Economic and Monetary Union and the EU as a whole. It then asks why the euro crisis continues to raise questions about Greece's future in the euro area and the fate of the single currency more generally. A timeline of the euro crisis is provided and the main changes to the institutional framework of European economic governance to date are analysed. The chapter also explores the consequences of the euro crisis for the EU's legitimacy.

Ocena antykryzysowej polityki gospodarczej Stanów Zjednoczonych i wybranych państw członkowskich Unii Europejskiej w latach 2005–2014

2016 ◽  
pp. 26-46
Author(s):  
Marcin Jan Flotyński
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
European Union ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Domestic Products

The global financial crisis in 2007–2009 began a period of high volatility on the financial markets. Specifically, it caused an increased amplitude of fluctuations of the level of gross domestic products, the level of investment and consumption and exchange rates in particular countries. To address the adverse market circumstances, governments and central banks took actions in order to bolster the weakening global economy. The aim of this article is to present the anti-crisis actions in the United States and selected member states of the European Union, including Poland, and an assessment of their efficiency. The analysis conducted indicates that generally the actions taken in the United States in response to the crisis were faster and more adequate to the existing circumstances than in the European Union.

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