scholarly journals Application of Taylor Rule Fundamentals in Forecasting Exchange Rates

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Joseph Agyapong
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Window Size ◽  
Symmetric Model ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Small Window ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The U.S

This paper examines the effectiveness of the Taylor rule in contemporary times by investigating the exchange rate forecastability of selected four Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries vis-à-vis the U.S. It employs various Taylor rule models with a non-drift random walk using monthly data from 1995 to 2019. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated by analyzing the pre- and post-financial crisis periods for forecasting exchange rates. The out-of-sample forecast results reveal that the best performing model is the symmetric model with no interest rate smoothing, heterogeneous coefficients and a constant. In particular, the results show that for the pre-financial crisis period, the Taylor rule was effective. However, the post-financial crisis period shows that the Taylor rule is ineffective in forecasting exchange rates. In addition, the sensitivity analysis suggests that a small window size outperforms a larger window size.

The Financial Crisis

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Alan N. Rechtschaffen
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Free Fall ◽  
Regulatory Framework ◽  
Subprime Lending ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Trump Administration

This chapter discusses the origins of the 2007 financial crisis, subprime lending, and government-sponsored entities. It argues that the events driving financial markets to the precipice of collapse during the global financial meltdown gave rise to a regulatory framework that may have been a rational response to a market in free fall, but need to be reassessed in an era of recovery. In 2018, the U.S. economy may be, by many measures, viewed as wholly recovered from the economic impact of the crisis. The stock market is trading at record highs, having erased all the losses of the crisis period and then some. With this recovery, the Trump administration seeks to restrain the regulatory burden imposed during the crisis.

scholarly journals Forecasting Term Structure of Interest Rates in Japan

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ishii
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Long Period ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Dns Model

In this paper, we examined and compared the forecast performances of the dynamic Nelson–Siegel (DNS), dynamic Nelson–Siegel–Svensson (DNSS), and arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel (AFNS) models after the financial crisis period. The best model for the forecast performance is the DNSS model in the middle and long periods. The AFNS is inferior to the DNS model for long-period forecasting. In U.S. bond markets, AFNS is shown to be superior to DNS in the U.S. However, for Japanese data, there is no evidence that the AFNS is superior to the DNS model in the long forecast horizon.

The Dynamic Relationship between Oil Prices and Exchange Rates

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Sakaki
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Dollar Depreciation

<p>Using daily data of oil prices and exchange rates of 14 countries for the period January 1999 to November 2014, this study examines the dynamic correlation between oil prices and exchange rates by DCC-GARCH model. The results show the significant negative correlation between oil prices and exchange rates over the period. These results imply that the increase of oil price is coinciding with US dollar depreciation and vice versa.  This correlation strengthens in negative direction during financial crisis period, while it shifts to an upward trend after financial crisis period.</p>

The Dynamic Relationship between Oil Prices and Exchange Rates

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Sakaki
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Dollar Depreciation

<p>Using daily data of oil prices and exchange rates of 14 countries for the period January 1999 to November 2014, this study examines the dynamic correlation between oil prices and exchange rates by DCC-GARCH model. The results show the significant negative correlation between oil prices and exchange rates over the period. These results imply that the increase of oil price is coinciding with US dollar depreciation and vice versa.  This correlation strengthens in negative direction during financial crisis period, while it shifts to an upward trend after financial crisis period.</p>

scholarly journals Who Moves the Malaysian Stock Market— the U.S. or Japan?: Empirical Evidence from the Pre-, During, and Post-1997 Asian Financial Crisis

2006 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosylin Mohd. Yusof ◽  
M. Shabri Abd. Majid
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Asian Financial Crisis ◽  
Japanese Economy ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The U.S

This paper examines long run co-movements between Malaysian stock market and the two largest stock markets in the world: the U.S. and Japan. By employing time-series analysis, i.e., cointegration, variance decompositions, and impulse response functions, the paper seeks to investigate which market actually leads the Malaysian stock market before, during, and after the 1997 Asian financial crisis periods. The results indicate that there is a co-movement of these markets only in the post crisis period. The Japanese stock market is found to significantly move the Malaysian stock market compared to U.S. stock market for the post-crisis period. At the same time, there seems to be a growing proportion of bilateral trade between Malaysia and Japan during the mentioned period. This finding seems to be consistent with the view that the stronger the bilateral trade ties between two countries, the higher the degree of co-movements (Masih and Masih 1999; Bracker et al. 1999; Pretorius 2002; Ibrahim 2003; Kearney and Lucey 2004). Our finding implies that the opportunities of gaining abnormal profits through investment diversification during the post-crisis period in the Malaysian and Japanese stock markets are diminishing as the markets move towards a greater integration. This further implies that any development in the Japanese economy has to be taken into consideration by the Malaysian government in designing policies pertaining to Malaysian stock market.

scholarly journals Excessive credit growth or the catching up process: The case of central, eastern, and southeastern European countries

2015 ◽  
Vol 60 (206) ◽  
pp. 7-44
Author(s):  
Dusan Stojanovic ◽  
Danilo Stojanovic
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Catching Up ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Hp Filter ◽  
Strong Expansion

Most CESEE countries had an impressive credit growth prior to the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008. Nevertheless, that experience has taught us that the strong expansion of private sector credit must not be ignored. In an attempt to investigate whether the rapid credit growth was a result of the catching-up process or was a risky process with well-known consequences, we performed empirical analysis by applying statistical (HP filter) and econometric (pooled OLS, fixed effect OLS, and PMG) approaches. The empirical results of both out-of-sample and in-sample approaches suggest that in the pre-crisis period excessive credit growth in terms of higher actual than estimated credit growth was recorded for the majority of the countries observed. Compared to the out of-sample approach, in-sample estimates, which turned out to be more reliable, indicate that the pre-crisis growth was less pronounced and that over the post-crisis period actual credit growth fluctuated around the estimated growth, pointing to the fact that the former was in line with movements in its fitted values.

Fear of Free Floating or Forced Exchange Rate Fixing

2004 ◽  
pp. 112-122
Author(s):  
O. Osipova
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Float Exchange Rate ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate Arrangements ◽  
Pass Through

After the financial crisis at the end of the 1990 s many countries rejected fixed exchange rate policy. However actually they failed to proceed to announced "independent float" exchange rate arrangement. This might be due to the "fear of floating" or an irreversible result of inflation targeting central bank policy. In the article advantages and drawbacks of fixed and floating exchange rate arrangements are systematized. Features of new returning to exchange rates stabilization and possible risks of such policy for Russia are considered. Special attention is paid to the issue of choice of a "target" currency composite which can minimize external inflation pass-through.

The Determinants of Merger Withdrawals’ Abnormal Returns in The Australian Market

2015 ◽  
pp. 89-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thuy Nguyen Thu ◽  
Giang Dao Thi Thu ◽  
Hoang Truong Huy
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Response ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Valuation Effects ◽  
Event Study Method ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Method Of Payment ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the abnormal returns in merger withdrawals in Australia, especially distinguishing the market response between private and public targets. We also study the determinants of those abnormal returns, including the method of payment and the impact of financial crisis periods. Using the event study method, we document that in the Australian context, the announced withdrawal of mergers involving private targets creates significantly negative valuation effects in comparison with the valuation effects in withdrawal of mergers involving public targets. We also find that a financial crisis period strongly affects abnormal returns of merger withdrawals. However, the method of payment does not have any impact on the abnormal returns.

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