scholarly journals Non-Probabilistic Time-Varying Reliability-Based Analysis of Corroded Pipelines Considering the Interaction of Multiple Uncertainty Variables

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1965 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangqin Hou ◽  
Yihuan Wang ◽  
Peng Zhang ◽  
Guojin Qin
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Corrosion Defects ◽  
Probability Information ◽  
Safe Working

Reliability analysis of corroded pipelines is critical to the integrity and safe working of pipeline infrastructure. Aiming at less probability information is obtained for corrosion pipeline engineering, and the mechanical properties of pipeline with corrosion defects deteriorate caused by the accumulative effect of corrosion growth. Based on the quasi-static analysis method and non-probability theory, this paper presents a reliability model for assessing corroded pipelines with corrosion growth. In fact, reliability analysis of corroded pipelines needs to consider the interaction of multiple uncertainty variables. By introducing interaction theory, a mathematical model of corrosion defects considering the interaction of variables is put forward. Moreover, this paper develops a non-probabilistic time-varying reliability method for pipeline systems with multiple defects. Thus, several numerical examples are investigated to discuss the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The results show that a two-dimensional or even three-dimensional ellipsoid model with correlation has more accurate results to evaluate corroded pipelines under the interaction of multiple corroded defects with poor information. Furthermore, a non-probabilistic time-varying reliability model is established according to the time-varying characteristics of the corroded pipeline under the influence of multiple factors. An effective complement to the theory of non-probabilistic reliability analysis of system is investigated. The analysis of the results suggests that interaction of corroded pipeline has a negligible impact on reliability. It also provides a theoretical basis for maintenance and is of great significance for risk- and reliability-informed decisions regarding buried oil and gas pipelines.

Reliability Analysis of Uncertain Nonlinear System Subject to Correlated Failure

2008 ◽  
Vol 44-46 ◽  
pp. 515-522
Author(s):  
X.F. Zhang ◽  
Yi Min Zhang ◽  
Xian Zhen Huang
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Fourth Moment ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Hysteretic Model ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Random Parameters ◽  
Uncertain Nonlinear System ◽  
Probability Information

On the basis of the Bouc-Wen hysteretic model, a numerical method for the reliability analysis of stochastic multi-degree-of-freedom hysteretic system with correlated failure modes is presented. Under the first passage model, considering the random caused by hysteretic loop itself, the theory of incomplete probability information and the fourth-moment technique and Gram Charlier series are employed to develop a numerical reliability analysis method systematically. The numerical example reveals that in most of cases, though system is characterized by a set of independent random parameters, the responses are strongly correlated, and correlation coefficient between the responses is fluctuated with time. The system reliability with correlated failure modes is evaluated with proposed method, and the result obtained by this method is compared well with the Monte-Carlo simulations.

A time-varying mechanical structure reliability analysis method based on performance degradation

Structures ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 34 ◽  
pp. 3247-3256
Author(s):  
Debiao Meng ◽  
Zhiyuan Lv ◽  
Shiyuan Yang ◽  
Hongtao Wang ◽  
Tianwen Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Performance Degradation ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Mechanical Structure ◽  
Structure Reliability

A Vine-Copula-Based Reliability Analysis Method for Structures With Multidimensional Correlation

2015 ◽  
Vol 137 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Jiang ◽  
W. Zhang ◽  
X. Han ◽  
B. Y. Ni ◽  
L. J. Song
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Computational Method ◽  
Joint Probability Distribution ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Solution Algorithms ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Vine Copula

This paper proposed a vine-copula-based structural reliability analysis method which is an effective approach for performing a reliability analysis on complex multidimensional correlation problems. A joint probability distribution function (PDF) among multidimensional random variables was established using a vine copula function, based on which a reliability analysis model was constructed. Two solution algorithms were proposed to solve this reliability analysis model: one was based on Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and another one was based on the first-order reliability method (FORM). The former method provides a generalized computational method for a reliability analysis based on vine copula functions and can provide so-called “precise solutions”; the latter method has high computational efficiency and can be used to solve actual complex engineering problems. Finally, three numerical examples were provided to verify the effectiveness of the method.

scholarly journals A heat transfer tube wear reliability analysis method based on first-order reliability method

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 803-815
Author(s):  
Xiao Chen ◽  
Xing He ◽  
Lichen Tang ◽  
Yuebing Li ◽  
Mingjue Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Heat Transfer Tube ◽  
Transfer Tube ◽  
Essential Components ◽  
Reliability Method

Abstract The heat transfer tube is one of the most essential components of the nuclear power plant as the boundary between the first and second circuit pressures. The wear between the heat transfer tube and the support plate or the anti-vibration strip is one of the essential reasons for its failure. Based on a heat transfer tube wear analysis method, combined with the reliability analysis theory, the calculation scheme of tube wear failure probability is proposed in this paper. In the analysis and calculation process, the key factors affecting the reliability are determined, including the baffle thickness B and the aperture difference Ce. In the manufacturing process, these key factors can be controlled, which is instructive for engineering practice.

Finite Element Study of Settlement of Cement Mixing Composite Foundation and Non-Probabilistic Reliability Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 638-640 ◽  
pp. 675-679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huan Sheng Mu ◽  
Ling Gao
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Load Transfer ◽  
Soft Soil ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Element Model ◽  
Composite Foundation ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Three Dimensional Finite Element

This paper presents a non-probabilistic method for reliability analysis of cement mixing composite foundations. First, the load transfer mechanism of composite foundations is described. Then a three-dimensional finite element model of cement mixing composite foundation under embankment is built. The settlement of subgrade is analyzed. Finally, a non-probabilistic reliability method is used to investigate the settlement reliability. The results show that the cement mixing composite foundation can significantly improve the compressibility of soft soil.

An Improved Reliability Analysis Method for Mooring Dolphin Structures

2014 ◽  
Vol 136 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Reda Farag ◽  
Achintya Haldar ◽  
Mahmoud El-Meligy
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Response Surface ◽  
Response Surface Method ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Evaluation Procedure ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Analysis And Design ◽  
Surface Method ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Improved Response Surface Method

A novel reliability evaluation procedure is proposed for analysis and design of offshore mooring dolphin structures (MDS). It is a hybrid approach consisting of an improved response surface method (IRSM), second-order reliability method (SORM), and several advanced factorial schemes. It is denoted as IRSM-SORM. Several schemes of IRSM-SORM are proposed and clarified with the help of an illustrative example.

The PDEM-based time-varying dynamic reliability analysis method for a concrete dam subjected to earthquake

Structures ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 2964-2973
Author(s):  
Jianyun Chen ◽  
Qibin Jia ◽  
Qiang Xu ◽  
Shuli Fan ◽  
Pengfei Liu
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Concrete Dam ◽  
Dynamic Reliability

scholarly journals Wear reliability of spur gear based on the cross-analysis method of a nonstationary random process

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 168781401881929 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
Yuhou Wu ◽  
Ke Zhang ◽  
Mircea-Viorel Dragoi ◽  
Minghe Liu
Keyword(s):  
Random Process ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Tooth Wear ◽  
Spur Gear ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Tooth Surface ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Nonstationary Random Process

Tooth wear is one of the main reasons that lead to gear failure. The amount of wear is nonlinearly related to temperature, lubrication, load, and various random factors of materials, with obvious randomness and slow time-varying characteristics. Wear is a nonstationary random process, which has no accurate mathematical model or accurate reliability estimation method. This article proposes a reliability model of spur gears which works under a nonstationary random process that exceeds the limit, and the time-varying wear reliability is studied based on the level crossing analysis method. The wear at tooth root is revised in the calculation under the nonstationary random process, and the reliability curves are obtained afterwards. An experiment is carried out on the spur gear meshing test rig, and the reliability model and wear performance are verified and analyzed. Results obtained with the proposed tooth surface wear reliability model match well with the experimental results. Therefore, this model is applicable for situations under a nonstationary random process. The new method makes contribution to the assessment of gear running status and is of great significance in the prediction of wear life under a nonstationary random process.

A Time-Variant Reliability Analysis Method Based on Stochastic Process Discretization

2014 ◽  
Vol 136 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Jiang ◽  
X. P. Huang ◽  
X. Han ◽  
D. Q. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
State Function ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Reliability Problem ◽  
Reliability Method

Time-variant reliability problems caused by deterioration in material properties, dynamic load uncertainty, and other causes are widespread among practical engineering applications. This study proposes a novel time-variant reliability analysis method based on stochastic process discretization (TRPD), which provides an effective analytical tool for assessing design reliability over the whole lifecycle of a complex structure. Using time discretization, a stochastic process can be converted into random variables, thereby transforming a time-variant reliability problem into a conventional time-invariant system reliability problem. By linearizing the limit-state function with the first-order reliability method (FORM) and furthermore, introducing a new random variable, the converted system reliability problem can be efficiently solved. The TRPD avoids the calculation of outcrossing rates, which simplifies the process of solving time-variant reliability problems and produces high computational efficiency. Finally, three numerical examples are used to verify the effectiveness of this approach.

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