scholarly journals Assembling and Customizing Multiple Fire Weather Forecasts for Burn Probability and Other Fire Management Applications in Ontario, Canada

Fire ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Den Boychuk ◽  
Colin B. McFayden ◽  
Jordan Evens ◽  
Jerry Shields ◽  
Aaron Stacey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Burn Probability ◽  
Start Up ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Probability Modelling ◽  
Seasonal Weather

Weather forecasts are needed in fire management to support risk-based decision-making that considers both the probability of an outcome and its potential impact. These decisions are complicated by the large amount of uncertainty surrounding many aspects of the decision, such as weather forecasts. Wildland fires in Ontario, Canada can burn and actively spread for days, weeks, or even months, or be naturally limited or extinguished by rain. Conventional fire weather forecasts have typically been a single scenario for a period of one to five days. These forecasts have two limitations: they are not long enough to inform some fire management decisions, and they do not convey any uncertainty to inform risk-based decision-making. We present an overview of a method for the assembly and customization of forecasts that (1) combines short-, medium-, and long-term forecasts of different types, (2) calculates Fire Weather Indices and Fire Behaviour Predictions, including modelling seasonal weather station start-up and shutdown, (3) resolves differing spatial resolutions, and (4) communicates forecasts. It is used for burn probability modelling and other fire management applications.

scholarly journals Assessing the role of short-term weather forecasts in fire manager tactical decision-making: a choice experiment

Fire Ecology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire E. Rapp ◽  
Robyn S. Wilson ◽  
Eric L. Toman ◽  
W. Matt Jolly
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Choice Experiment ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Decision Support Tools ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Support Tools ◽  
In Fire

Abstract Background Weather plays an integral role in fire management due to the direct and indirect effects it has on fire behavior. However, fire managers may not use all information available to them during the decision-making process, instead utilizing mental shortcuts that can bias decision-making. Thus, it is important to evaluate if (and how) fire managers use information like weather forecasts when making tactical decisions. We explore USDA Forest Service fire manager confidence in relative humidity, precipitation, and wind models. We then use a choice experiment where key weather attributes were varied to explore how sensitive fire managers were to changes in specific weather variables when choosing to directly or indirectly attack a fire that is transitioning to extended attack. Results Respondents were less confident in the accuracy of wind and precipitation forecasts than relative humidity or weather forecasts more generally. The influence of weather information on the decision depended on the framing used in the choice experiment; specifically, whether respondents were told the initial strategy had been to directly or indirectly attack the fire. Across conditions, fire managers generally preferred to indirectly attack the fire. Decisions about the tactics to apply going forward were more sensitive to time in season when the fire was occurring and wind and precipitation forecasts than to other attributes. Conclusions The results have implications for the design of decision support tools developed to support fire management. Results suggest how fire managers’ use of fire weather information to evaluate forecast conditions and adjust future management decisions may vary depending on the management decision already in place. If fire weather-based decision support tools are to support the use of the best available information to make fire management decisions, careful attention may be needed to debias any effect of prior decisions. For example, decision support tools may encourage users to “consider the opposite,” i.e., consider if they would react differently if different initial decision with similar conditions were in place. The results also highlight the potential importance of either improving wind and precipitation forecast models or improving confidence in existing models.

Supporting Long-Term Decision Making in Plant Production in Serbia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirjam Vujadinović Mandić ◽  
Ana Vuković Vimić ◽  
Marija Ćosić ◽  
Zorica Ranković-Vasić ◽  
Vladimir Djurdjević ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Plant Production ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Seasonal Weather

<p>Agriculture is exposed to numerous risks related to climate change. Extreme weather events, such as droughts, heat waves, intensive rainfall and floods, as well as slow changes (increased temperatures, changes in precipitation regime and generally increased climate variability) affect the year-to-year stability of quality and quantity of the plant production.</p><p>Serbia is located in one of the regions that are recognized as hot spots where climate change unfolds faster than the global average. A survey completed by more than 100 agricultural producers in Serbia showed that in the last 20 years they were affected by mostly negative impact of climate change and suffered reduced quality and/or quantity of yields, mostly from droughts, high summer temperatures, spring frosts and storms with strong winds and hail.</p><p>Adaptation measures applied to reduce the risks of extreme weather events are mainly those subsidized by the Government (anti-hail nets, irrigation systems, etc.), recommended by the Agriculture Advisory Service or other independent expert (tillage methods, sowing time, time and water amount used for irrigation, use of fertilizers, etc.), as well as those learn from their own past experience (selection of varieties, crop rotation).</p><p>Most respondents regularly follow short-term weather forecasts from various sources and plan field activities accordingly. They are mainly familiar with the monthly forecast issued by the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS), which is also published by several newspapers. This forecast is based on the statistical method of analogies and the producers believe that they cannot rely on it in long-term planning. In general, they lack confidence in the long-term weather forecasts, mainly due to the fact that over the past years Serbian media were overwhelmed with tendentious seasonal forecasts from unreliable sources.</p><p>On the other hand, the survey showed that many producers would appreciate and use the seasonal weather outlooks if it was tailored according to their specific needs considering species they cultivate and local climate characteristics. They would like clearly presented information, in simple graph or map form, followed by textual advices on agro-technical measures they could adopt in order to reduce foreseen weather-related risks.</p><p>Integrated Agro-meteorological Prediction System (IAPS) is a project financed by the Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia through the Program for excellent project of young researchers (PROMIS) that aims to reduce the risk of weather-related events and increase climate resilience of Serbian agriculture, as well as to advance the use of climate information by producers and agricultural advisers in long-term planning. The idea is to create a coupled system od dynamically downscaled seasonal weather forecasts and crop models, accompanied with a set of products specifically tailored to support long-term decision making in agriculture. At the end of the project, the developed system and its products will be offered to RHMSS to include in the operative forecast system.</p>

The Weather Roulette: A Game to Communicate the Usefulness of Probabilistic Climate Predictions

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (10) ◽  
pp. 1909-1921 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Terrado ◽  
Llorenç Lledó ◽  
Dragana Bojovic ◽  
Asun Lera St. Clair ◽  
Albert Soret ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Return On Investment ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Business Sector ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Forecast Quality

AbstractClimate predictions, from three weeks to a decade into the future, can provide invaluable information for climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors, such as renewable energy, agriculture, or insurance. However, communicating and interpreting these predictions is not straightforward. Barriers hindering user uptake include a terminology gap between climate scientists and users, the difficulties of dealing with probabilistic outcomes for decision-making, and the lower skill of climate predictions compared to the skill of weather forecasts. This paper presents a gaming approach to break communication and understanding barriers through the application of the Weather Roulette conceptual framework. In the game, the player can choose between two forecast options, one that uses ECMWF seasonal predictions against one using climatology-derived probabilities. For each forecast option, the bet is spread proportionally to the predicted probabilities, either in a single year game or a game for the whole period of 33 past years. This paper provides skill maps of forecast quality metrics commonly used by the climate prediction community (e.g., ignorance skill score and ranked probability skill score), which in the game are linked to metrics easily understood by the business sector (e.g., interest rate and return on investment). In a simplified context, we illustrate how in skillful regions the economic benefits of using ECMWF predictions arise in the long term and are higher than using climatology. This paper provides an example of how to convey the usefulness of climate predictions and transfer the knowledge from climate science to potential users. If applied, this approach could provide the basis for a better integration of knowledge about climate anomalies into operational and managerial processes.

scholarly journals Effects of policy change on wildland fire management strategies: evidence for a paradigm shift in the western US?

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (10) ◽  
pp. 857 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesse D. Young ◽  
Alexander M. Evans ◽  
Jose M. Iniguez ◽  
Andrea Thode ◽  
Marc D. Meyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire Management ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Western Us ◽  
Strategic Options ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Wildland Fire Management

In 2009, new guidance for wildland fire management in the United States expanded the range of strategic options for managers working to reduce the threat of high-severity wildland fire, improve forest health and respond to a changing climate. Markedly, the new guidance provided greater flexibility to manage wildland fires to meet multiple resource objectives. We use Incident Status Summary reports to understand how wildland fire management strategies have differed across the western US in recent years and how management has changed since the 2009 Guidance for Implementation of Federal Wildland Fire Management Policy. When controlling for confounding variation, we found the 2009 Policy Guidance along with other concurrent advances in fire management motivated an estimated 27 to 73% increase in the number of fires managed with expanded strategic options, with only limited evidence of an increase in size or annual area burned. Fire weather captured a manager’s intent and allocation of fire management resources relative to burning conditions, where a manager’s desire and ability to suppress is either complemented by fire weather, at odds with fire weather, or put aside due to other priorities. We highlight opportunities to expand the use of strategic options in fire-adapted forests to improve fuel heterogeneity.

scholarly journals Paradoxes of Poweshiek Skipperling (Oarisma poweshiek) (Lepidoptera: Hesperiidae): Abundance Patterns and Management of a Highly Imperiled Prairie Species

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann B. Swengel ◽  
Scott R. Swengel
Keyword(s):  
Tallgrass Prairie ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
First Year ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Abundance Patterns ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Percent Unit ◽  
Oarisma Poweshiek

Although Oarisma poweshiek sometimes occurred in localized abundance, its known range is centered on the highly decimated northern tallgrass prairie of North America. To aid its conservation, we analyze surveys from 1988 to 1997 of populations no longer being found. While we recorded 2403 individuals at 20 sites, five sites had 87% of individuals, while 12 sites had only 2% of individuals. Most surveys during O. poweshiek flight had zero individuals recorded. In peak vegetative characteristics for O. poweshiek, fire management had the highest mean abundance but the lowest median abundance and lowest percent occurrence compared to idling and haying. Mean abundance was by far the lowest in the first year postfire compared to longer since fire. Median abundance and percent unit surveys where O. poweshiek was found indicated higher abundances the longer since fire. Although this skipper occasionally exhibited super-recoveries after fire, the median result in fire-managed occupied sites was zero. In a few years, abundance appeared synchronized across many sites, either low (1993, 1997) or high (1994-1995). It is only through a constant focus on avoiding the worst-case scenario that the rare best-case scenario of long-term population persistence appears possible for O. poweshiek.

scholarly journals Science, technology, and human factors in fire danger rating: the Canadian experience.

2006 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen W. Taylor ◽  
Martin E. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Danger Rating System ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
In Fire ◽  
And Training

The present paper reviews the development of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) and its implementation in Canada and elsewhere, and suggests how this experience can be applied in developing fire danger rating systems in other forest or wildland environments. Experience with the CFFDRS suggests that four key scientific, technological, and human elements need to be developed and integrated in a national forest fire danger rating system. First among these is a sustained program of scientific research to develop a system based on relationships between fire weather, fuels, and topography, and fire occurrence, behavior, and impact appropriate to the fire environment. Development of a reliable technical infrastructure to gather, process, and archive fire weather data and to disseminate fire weather forecasts, fire danger information, and fire behavior predictions within operational agencies is also important. Technology transfer and training in the use of fire danger information in fire operations are necessary, as are cooperation and communication between fire management agencies to share resources and set common standards for information, resources, and training. These elements must be appropriate to the needs and capabilities of fire managers, and must evolve as fire management objectives change. Fire danger systems are a form of media; system developers should be careful not to overemphasize scientific and technological elements at the expense of human and institutional factors. Effective fire danger systems are readily assimilated by and influence the organizational culture, which in turn influences the development of new technologies. Most importantly, common vision and a sense of common cause among fire scientists and fire managers are needed for successful implementation of a fire danger rating system.

scholarly journals Climatological Variability of Fire Weather in Australia

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Dowdy
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Clear Trend ◽  
Climatological Variability ◽  
In Fire

AbstractLong-term variations in fire weather conditions are examined throughout Australia from gridded daily data from 1950 to 2016. The McArthur forest fire danger index is used to represent fire weather conditions throughout this 67-yr period, calculated on the basis of a gridded analysis of observations over this time period. This is a complementary approach to previous studies (e.g., those based primarily on model output, reanalysis, or individual station locations), providing a spatially continuous and long-term observations-based dataset to expand on previous research and produce climatological guidance information for planning agencies. Long-term changes in fire weather conditions are apparent in many regions. In particular, there is a clear trend toward more dangerous conditions during spring and summer in southern Australia, including increased frequency and magnitude of extremes, as well as indicating an earlier start to the fire season. Changes in fire weather conditions are attributable at least in part to anthropogenic climate change, including in relation to increasing temperatures. The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on fire weather conditions is found to be broadly consistent with previous studies (indicating more severe fire weather in general for El Niño conditions than for La Niña conditions), but it is demonstrated that this relationship is highly variable (depending on season and region) and that there is considerable potential in almost all regions of Australia for long-range prediction of fire weather (e.g., multiweek and seasonal forecasting). It is intended that improved understanding of the climatological variability of fire weather conditions will help lead to better preparedness for risks associated with dangerous wildfires in Australia.

scholarly journals The Use of Science in Wildland Fire Management: a Review of Barriers and Facilitators

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 354-367
Author(s):  
Molly E Hunter ◽  
Melanie M Colavito ◽  
Vita Wright
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Barriers And Facilitators ◽  
Fire Science ◽  
The Usa ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Common Barriers ◽  
Wildland Fire Management

Abstract Purpose of Review Science plays a critical role in natural resource management, and the use of science in decision-making is mandated by several policy initiatives. Other disciplines have documented the challenges associated with applying science to management and possible solutions to overcoming challenges, but the evaluation of science use in wildland fire management is relatively immature. In this paper, we reviewed the available literature that evaluates science use in wildland fire management and common barriers and facilitators to science use in decision-making. Recent Findings We developed a conceptual model that describes the possible uses of science in fire management (perception, planning, forecasting, implementation, assessment, communication, and policy), common barriers to science use (lack of science, uncertainty, funding/capacity, conflict), common facilitators to fire science use (collaboration, trust, boundary organizations, co-production), and factors that can act as facilitators or barriers to science use depending on their presence or absence (awareness, accessibility, relevance). In the context of our conceptual model, we reviewed 67 papers that examined fire science use between 1986 and 2019. Summary Most studies were conducted in the USA in the last 10 years and demonstrated that science is commonly used in fire management and that the maturation of organizations devoted to science translation and communication in the last 10 years has likely facilitated the application of fire science. The evaluation of fire science use, however, is still relatively immature, with studies needed on the use of fire science in countries outside the USA, the use of science in the management of wildfires, and in the crafting of policy related to wildland fire management.

Issues of Capacity and Decision-Making in the Context of Delirium

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 140-145
Author(s):  
Kevin R. Patterson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Patient Autonomy ◽  
Care Setting ◽  
Cognitive Change ◽  
Treatment Team ◽  
Precipitating Factors ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Decision Making Capacity ◽  
Fundamental Consideration

Decision-making capacity is a fundamental consideration in working with patients in a clinical setting. One of the most common conditions affecting decision-making capacity in patients in the inpatient or long-term care setting is a form of acute, transient cognitive change known as delirium. A thorough understanding of delirium — how it can present, its predisposing and precipitating factors, and how it can be managed — will improve a speech-language pathologist's (SLPs) ability to make treatment recommendations, and to advise the treatment team on issues related to communication and patient autonomy.

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