scholarly journals Time Series Analysis of Forest Dynamics at the Ecoregion Level

Forecasting ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 364-386
Author(s):  
Olga Rumyantseva ◽  
Andrey Sarantsev ◽  
Nikolay Strigul
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Random Walk ◽  
Forest Inventory ◽  
Forest Dynamics ◽  
Heavy Tails ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Ecological Regions ◽  
Ecological Region ◽  
Geometric Random Walk

Forecasting of forest dynamics at a large scale is essential for land use management, global climate change and biogeochemistry modeling. We develop time series models of the forest dynamics in the conterminous United States based on forest inventory data collected by the US Forest Service over several decades. We fulfilled autoregressive analysis of the basal forest area at the level of US ecological regions. In each USA ecological region, we modeled basal area dynamics on individual forest inventory pots and performed analysis of its yearly averages. The last task involved Bayesian techniques to treat irregular data. In the absolute majority of ecological regions, basal area yearly averages behave as geometric random walk with normal increments. In California Coastal Province, geometric random walk with normal increments adequately describes dynamics of both basal area yearly averages and basal area on individual forest plots. Regarding all the rest of the USA’s ecological regions, basal areas on individual forest patches behave as random walks with heavy tails. The Bayesian approach allowed us to evaluate forest growth rate within each USA ecological region. We have also implemented time series ARIMA models for annual averages basal area in every USA ecological region. The developed models account for stochastic effects of environmental disturbances and allow one to forecast forest dynamics.

scholarly journals Regional Variability of the Romanian Main Tree Species Growth Using National Forest Inventory Increment Cores

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 409
Author(s):  
Gheorghe Marin ◽  
Vlad C. Strimbu ◽  
Ioan V. Abrudan ◽  
Bogdan M. Strimbu
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Models ◽  
Forest Inventory ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
National Forest Inventory ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
National Forest ◽  
Sessile Oak ◽  
Basal Area Growth ◽  
Temporal Grouping ◽  
Area Growth

In many countries, National Forest Inventory (NFI) data is used to assess the variability of forest growth across the country. The identification of areas with similar growths provides the foundation for development of regional models. The objective of the present study is to identify areas with similar diameter and basal area growth using increment cores acquired by the NFI for the three main Romanian species: Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst), European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), and Sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.). We used 6536 increment cores with ages less than 100 years, a total of 427,635 rings. The country was divided in 21 non-overlapping ecoregions based on geomorphology, soil, geology and spatial contiguousness. Mixed models and multivariate analyses were used to assess the differences in annual dimeter at breast height and basal area growth among ecoregions. Irrespective of the species, the mixed models analysis revealed significant differences in growth between the ecoregions. However, some ecoregions were similar in terms of growth and could be aggregated. Multivariate analysis reinforced the difference between ecoregions and showed no temporal grouping for spruce and beech. Sessile oak growth was separated not only by ecoregions, but also by time, with some ecoregions being more prone to draught. Our study showed that countries of median size, such as Romania, could exhibit significant spatial differences in forest growth. Therefore, countrywide growth models incorporate too much variability to be considered operationally feasible. Furthermore, it is difficult to justify the current growth and yield models as a legal binding planning tool.

scholarly journals Autoregressive Modeling of Forest Dynamics

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1074
Author(s):  
Olga Rumyantseva ◽  
Andrey Sarantsev ◽  
Nikolay Strigul
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Forest Dynamics ◽  
Forest Biomass ◽  
Autoregressive Process ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Forest Inventories ◽  
Continuous State Space ◽  
Continuous State ◽  
Yearly Average ◽  
Geometric Random Walk

In this work, we employ autoregressive models developed in financial engineering for modeling of forest dynamics. Autoregressive models have some theoretical advantage over currently employed forest modeling approaches such as Markov chains and individual-based models, as autoregressive models are both analytically tractable and operate with continuous state space. We performed a time series statistical analysis of forest biomass and basal areas recorded in Quebec provincial forest inventories from 1970 to 2007. The geometric random walk model adequately describes the yearly average dynamics. For individual patches, we fit an autoregressive process (AR) of order 1 capable to model negative feedback (mean-reversion). Overall, the best fit also turned out to be geometric random walk; however, the normality tests for residuals failed. In contrast, yearly means were adequately described by normal fluctuations, with annual growth on average of 2.3%, but with a standard deviation of order of 40%. We used a Bayesian analysis to account for the uneven number of observations per year. This work demonstrates that autoregressive models represent a valuable tool for the modeling of forest dynamics. In particular, they quantify the stochastic effects of environmental disturbances and develop predictive empirical models on short and intermediate temporal scales.

scholarly journals An individual-tree linear mixed-effects model for predicting the basal area increment of major forest species in Southern Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. e019
Author(s):  
Lucio Di Cosmo ◽  
Diego Giuliani ◽  
Maria Michela Dickson ◽  
Patrizia Gasparini
Keyword(s):  
Forest Inventory ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Mixed Effects ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Mixed Effects Model ◽  
Basal Area Increment ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Diameter At Breast Height ◽  
Breast Height

Aims of the study. Assessment of growth is essential to support sustainability of forest management and forest policies. The objective of the study was to develop a species-specific model to predict the annual increment of tree basal area through variables recorded by forest surveys, to assess forest growth directly or in the context of more complex forest growth and yield simulation models.Area of the study. Italy.Material and methods. Data on 34638 trees of 31 different forest species collected in 5162 plots of the Italian National Forest Inventory were used; the data were recorded between 2004 and 2006. To account for the hierarchical structure of the data due to trees nested within plots, a two-level mixed-effects modelling approach was used.Main results. The final result is an individual-tree linear mixed-effects model with species as dummy variables. Tree size is the main predictor, but the model also integrates geographical and topographic predictors and includes competition. The model fitting is good (McFadden’s Pseudo-R2 0.536), and the variance of the random effect at the plot level is significant (intra-class correlation coefficient 0.512). Compared to the ordinary least squares regression, the mixed-effects model allowed reducing the mean absolute error of estimates in the plots by 64.5% in average.Research highlights. A single tree-level model for predicting the basal area increment of different species was developed using forest inventory data. The data used for the modelling cover 31 species and a great variety of growing conditions, and the model seems suitable to be applied in the wider context of Southern Europe.   Keywords: Tree growth; forest growth modelling; forest inventory; hierarchical data structure; Italy.Abbreviations used: BA - basal area; BAI – five-year periodic basal area increment; BALT - basal area of trees larger than the subject tree; BASPratio - ratio of subject tree species basal area to stand basal area; BASTratio - ratio of subject tree basal area to stand basal area; CRATIO - crown ratio; DBH – diameter at breast height ; DBH0– diameter at breast height corresponding to five years before the survey year; DBHt– diameter at breast height measured in the survey year; DI5 - five-year, inside bark, DBH increment; HDOM - dominant height; LULUCF - Land Use, Land Use Changes and Forestry; ME - mean error; MAE - mean absolute error; MPD - mean percent deviation; MPSE - mean percent standard error; NFI(s) - National Forest Inventory/ies; OLS - ordinary least squares regression; RMSE - root mean squared error; UNFCCC - United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Contribution to the automation of the calculations involving the forest inventory with the aid of an office computer

1970 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Goossens
Keyword(s):  
Tree Species ◽  
Forest Inventory ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Annual Increment ◽  
Mixed Stands ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Standing Trees ◽  
General Program ◽  
Magnetic Card ◽  
The Right

Contribution to the automation of the calculations involving  the forest inventory with the aid of an office computer - In this contribution an attempt was made to perform the  calculations involving the forest inventory by means of an office computer  Olivetti P203.     The general program (flowchart 1), identical for all tree species except  for the values of the different parameters, occupies the tracks A and B of a  magnetic card used with this computer. For each tree species one magnetic  card is required, while some supplementary cards are used for the  subroutines. The first subroutine (flowchart 1) enables us to preserve  temporarily the subtotals between two tree species (mixed stands) and so  called special or stand cards (SC). After the last tree species the totals  per ha are calculated and printed on the former, the average trees occuring  on the line below. Appendix 1 gives an example of a similar form resulting  from calculations involving a sampling in a mixed stand consisting of Oak  (code 11), Red oak (code 12), Japanese larch (code 24) and Beech (code 13).  On this form we find from the left to the right: the diameter class (m), the  number of trees per ha, the basal area (m2/ha), the current annual increment  of the basal area (m2/year/ha), current annual volume increment (m3/year/ha),  the volume (m3/ha) and the money value of the standing trees (Bfr/ha). On the  line before the last, the totals of the quantities mentioned above and of all  the tree species together are to be found. The last line gives a survey of  the average values dg, g, ig, ig, v and w.     Besides this form each stand or plot has a so-called 'stand card SC' on  wich the totals cited above as well as the area of the stand or the plot and  its code are stored. Similar 'stand card' may replace in many cases  completely the classical index cards; moreover they have the advantage that  the data can be entered directly into the computer so that further  calculations, classifications or tabling can be carried out by means of an  appropriate program or subroutine. The subroutine 2 (flowchart 2) illustrates  the use of similar cards for a series of stands or eventually a complete  forest, the real values of the different quantities above are calculated and  tabled (taking into account the area). At the same time the general totals  and the general mean values per ha, as well as the average trees are  calculated and printed. Appendix 2 represents a form resulting from such  calculations by means of subroutine 2.

scholarly journals An approximate point-based alternative for the estimation of variance under big BAF sampling

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas B. Lynch ◽  
Jeffrey H. Gove ◽  
Timothy G. Gregoire ◽  
Mark J. Ducey
Keyword(s):  
Forest Inventory ◽  
Variance Estimation ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Volume Estimation ◽  
Delta Method ◽  
Sampling Point ◽  
Variance Estimator ◽  
Computer Simulation Studies ◽  
New Formula ◽  
Estimation Of Variance

Abstract Background A new variance estimator is derived and tested for big BAF (Basal Area Factor) sampling which is a forest inventory system that utilizes Bitterlich sampling (point sampling) with two BAF sizes, a small BAF for tree counts and a larger BAF on which tree measurements are made usually including DBHs and heights needed for volume estimation. Methods The new estimator is derived using the Delta method from an existing formulation of the big BAF estimator as consisting of three sample means. The new formula is compared to existing big BAF estimators including a popular estimator based on Bruce’s formula. Results Several computer simulation studies were conducted comparing the new variance estimator to all known variance estimators for big BAF currently in the forest inventory literature. In simulations the new estimator performed well and comparably to existing variance formulas. Conclusions A possible advantage of the new estimator is that it does not require the assumption of negligible correlation between basal area counts on the small BAF factor and volume-basal area ratios based on the large BAF factor selection trees, an assumption required by all previous big BAF variance estimation formulas. Although this correlation was negligible on the simulation stands used in this study, it is conceivable that the correlation could be significant in some forest types, such as those in which the DBH-height relationship can be affected substantially by density perhaps through competition. We derived a formula that can be used to estimate the covariance between estimates of mean basal area and the ratio of estimates of mean volume and mean basal area. We also mathematically derived expressions for bias in the big BAF estimator that can be used to show the bias approaches zero in large samples on the order of $\frac {1}{n}$ 1 n where n is the number of sample points.

Clustering Random Walk Time Series

2015 ◽  
pp. 675-684
Author(s):  
Gautier Marti ◽  
Frank Nielsen ◽  
Philippe Very ◽  
Philippe Donnat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Random Walk

scholarly journals Use of artificial neural networks and geographic objects for classifying remote sensing imagery

CERNE ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Resende Silva ◽  
Fausto Weimar Acerbi Júnior ◽  
Luis Marcelo Tavares de Carvalho ◽  
José Roberto Soares Scolforo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Image Segmentation ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Forest Inventory ◽  
Landsat Tm ◽  
Inventory Data ◽  
Forest Inventory Data ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Test Use

The aim of this study was to develop a methodology for mapping land use and land cover in the northern region of Minas Gerais state, where, in addition to agricultural land, the landscape is dominated by native cerrado, deciduous forests, and extensive areas of vereda. Using forest inventory data, as well as RapidEye, Landsat TM and MODIS imagery, three specific objectives were defined: 1) to test use of image segmentation techniques for an object-based classification encompassing spectral, spatial and temporal information, 2) to test use of high spatial resolution RapidEye imagery combined with Landsat TM time series imagery for capturing the effects of seasonality, and 3) to classify data using Artificial Neural Networks. Using MODIS time series and forest inventory data, time signatures were extracted from the dominant vegetation formations, enabling selection of the best periods of the year to be represented in the classification process. Objects created with the segmentation of RapidEye images, along with the Landsat TM time series images, were classified by ten different Multilayer Perceptron network architectures. Results showed that the methodology in question meets both the purposes of this study and the characteristics of the local plant life. With excellent accuracy values for native classes, the study showed the importance of a well-structured database for classification and the importance of suitable image segmentation to meet specific purposes.

scholarly journals How random are predictions of forest growth? The importance of weather variability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna Horemans ◽  
Olga Vindušková ◽  
Gaby Deckmyn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Random Order ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Weather Variability

Quantifying the output uncertainty and tracking down its origins is key to interpreting the results of model studies. We perform such an uncertainty analysis on the predictions of forest growth and yield under climate change. We specifically focus on the effect of the inter-annual climate variability. For that, the climate years in the model input (daily resolution) were randomly shuffled within each 5-year period. In total, 540 simulations (10 parameter sets, 9 climate shuffles, 3 global climate models and 2 mitigation scenarios), were made for one growing cycle (80 years) of a Scots pine forest growing in Peitz (Germany). Our results show that, besides the important effect of the parameter set, the random order of climate years can significantly change results such as basal area and produced volume, and the response of these to climate change. We stress that the effect of weather variability should be included in the design of impact model ensembles, and the accompanying uncertainty analysis. We further suggest presenting model results as likelihoods to allow risk assessment. For example, in our study the likelihood of a decrease in basal area of >10% with no mitigation was 20.4%, while the likelihood of an increase >10% was 34.4%.

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