Weather Variability Induced Uncertainty of Contrail Radiative Forcing

Persistent contrails and contrail cirrus are estimated to have a larger impact on climate than all CO2 emissions from global aviation since the introduction of jet engines. However, the measure for this impact, the effective radiative forcing (ERF) or radiative forcing (RF), suffers from uncertainties that are much larger than those for CO2. Despite ongoing research, the so called level of scientific understanding has not improved since the 1999 IPCC Special Report on Aviation and the Global Atmosphere. In this paper, the role of weather variability as a major component of the uncertainty range of contrail cirrus RF is examined. Using 10 years of MOZAIC flights and ERA-5 reanalysis data, we show that natural weather variability causes large variations in the instantaneous radiative forcing (iRF) of persistent contrails, which is a major source for uncertainty. Most contrails (about 80%) have a small positive iRF of up to 20 W m−2. IRF exceeds 20 W m−2 in about 10% of all cases but these have a disproportionally large climate impact, the remaining 10% have a negative iRF. The distribution of iRF values is heavily skewed towards large positive values that show an exponential decay. Monte Carlo experiments reveal the difficulty of determining a precise long-term mean from measurement or campaign data alone. Depending on the chosen sample size, calculated means scatter considerably, which is caused exclusively by weather variability. Considering that many additional natural sources of variation have been deliberately neglected in the present examination, the results suggest that there is a fundamental limit to the precision with which the RF and ERF of contrail cirrus can be determined. In our opinion, this does not imply a low level of scientific understanding; rather the scientific understanding of contrails and contrail cirrus has grown considerably over recent decades. Only the determination of global and annual mean RF and ERF values is still difficult and will probably be so for the coming decades, if not forever. The little precise knowledge of the RF and ERF values is, therefore, no argument to postpone actions to mitigate contrail’s warming impact.

Unfounded claims about productivity beyond density for reindeer pastoralism systems

We point out problems with the article Productivity beyond density: A critique of management models for reindeer pastoralism in Norway by Marin and co-workers published in Pastoralism in 2020. In our opinion, there are several misleading claims about the governance of the reindeer pastoralist system in Norway, the Røros model for herd management and density dependence in reindeer herds in their article. We point out the errors in their empirical re-evaluation of previous work on the relationship between reindeer densities and the productivity and slaughter weights in herds. These errors have a significant bearing on their conclusions. We agree that weather variability has a substantial impact on reindeer body mass growth, fecundity and survival, but disagree with Marin et al. when they argue that reindeer densities are of minor importance for reindeer productivity and animal welfare.

Weather Variability and Instability in Agricultural Production: Evidence from Odisha

This study focused on exploring the weather variability induced instability in agriculture in the Odisha, India. In this study, growth and instability in ten major crops are analysed, followed by a depiction of weather variability in Odisha and then the association between weather variability and instability in selected crops are analysed using regression analysis. It is observed that weather variability is a major concern in the state of Odisha. In the context of agrarian economy of Odisha, the dimensions, magnitude and erratic nature of the weather variability and extreme weather events have made the situation more complex. Wide variations are observed in the rainfall both across time and space in the state. The long term average rainfall is indicating a declining trend. The weather variability has produced profound negative effects on agricultural production and yields in the state, causing agricultural fluctuations and has been a serious threat to the agrarian economy. Empirical findings lend credence to the negative effects of weather variability on agricultural yield and the regression analyses of yield instability on weather variability have only reaffirmed the same. The negative effects of weather variability on crop yield leads to a clear policy implication of proper provisioning of irrigation and weather variability resistance crop for increasing the crop yields and reduce the crop yield instability.

Cyclonic and anticyclonic contributions to atmospheric energetics

Migratory cyclones and anticyclones account for most of the day-to-day weather variability in the extratropics. These transient eddies act to maintain the midlatitude jet streams by systematically transporting westerly momentum and heat. Yet, little is known about the separate contributions of cyclones and anticyclones to their interaction with the westerlies. Here, using a novel methodology for identifying cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices based on curvature, we quantify their separate contributions to atmospheric energetics and their feedback on the westerly jet streams as represented in Eulerian statistics. We show that climatological westerly acceleration by cyclonic vortices acts to dominantly reinforce the wintertime eddy-driven near-surface westerlies and associated cyclonic shear. Though less baroclinic and energetic, anticyclones still play an important role in transporting westerly momentum toward midlatitudes from the upper-tropospheric thermally driven jet core and carrying eddy energy downstream. These new findings have uncovered essential characteristics of atmospheric energetics, storm track dynamics and eddy-mean flow interaction.