Water Productivity Evaluation under Multi-GCM Projections of Climate Change in Oases of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

As the second largest inland river basin situated in the middle of the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China, the Heihe River basin (HRB) has been facing a severe water shortage problem, which seriously restricts its green and sustainable development. The evaluation of climate change impact on water productivity inferred by crop yield and actual evapotranspiration is of significant importance for water-saving in agricultural regions. In this study, the multi-model projections of climate change under the three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) were used to drive an agro-hydrological model to evaluate the crop water productivity in the middle irrigated oases of the HRB from 2021–2050. Compared with the water productivity simulation based on field experiments during 2012–2015, the projected water productivity in the two typical agricultural areas (Gaotai and Ganzhou) both exhibited an increasing trend in the future 30 years, which was mainly attributed to the significant decrease of the crop water consumption. The water productivity in the Gaotai area under the three RCP scenarios during 2021–2050 increased by 9.2%, 14.3%, and 11.8%, while the water productivity increased by 15.4%, 21.6%, and 19.9% in the Ganzhou area, respectively. The findings can provide useful information on the Hexi Corridor and the Belt and Road to policy-makers and stakeholders for sustainable development of the water-ecosystem-economy system.

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The response of crop water productivity to climatic variation in the upper-middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, Northwest China

Journal of Hydrology ◽

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.06.062 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 563 ◽

pp. 909-926 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Jun Niu ◽

Qi Liu ◽

Shaozhong Kang ◽

Xiaotao Zhang

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Water Productivity ◽

Northwest China ◽

Climatic Variation ◽

Heihe River Basin ◽

Heihe River ◽

Crop Water ◽

Crop Water Productivity ◽

The Heihe River Basin

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Accessing future crop yield and crop water productivity over the Heihe River basin in northwest China under a changing climate

Geoscience Letters ◽

10.1186/s40562-020-00172-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Qi Liu ◽

Jun Niu ◽

Bellie Sivakumar ◽

Risheng Ding ◽

Sien Li

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Water Productivity ◽

Heihe River Basin ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Heihe River ◽

Crop Water ◽

Crop Water Productivity ◽

The Heihe River Basin

AbstractQuantitative evaluation of the response of crop yield and crop water productivity (CWP) to future climate change is important to prevent or mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. This study made such an evaluation for the agricultural land over the Heihe River basin in northwest China. The ability of 31 climate models for simulating the precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature was evaluated for the studied area, and a multi-model ensemble was employed. Using the previously well-established Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), crop yield and crop water productivity of four major crops (corn, wheat, barley, and spring canola-Polish) in the Heihe River basin were simulated for three future time periods (2025–2049, 2050–2074, and 2075–2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results revealed that the impacts of future climate change on crop yield and CWP of wheat, barley, and canola would all be negative, whereas the impact on corn in the eastern part of the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin would be positive. On the whole, climate change under RCP8.5 scenario would be more harmful to crops, while the corn crops in the Minle and Shandan counties have better ability to cope with climate change.

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Multi-Model Projections of Climate Change in Different RCP Scenarios in an Arid Inland Region, Northwest China

Water ◽

10.3390/w11020347 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 347 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Ruotong Wang ◽

Qiuya Cheng ◽

Liu Liu ◽

Churui Yan ◽

Guanhua Huang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Northwest China ◽

Heihe River Basin ◽

Heihe River ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Maximum Air Temperature ◽

The Heihe River Basin ◽

Minimum Air Temperature

Based on three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), observed meteorological data, ERA-40 reanalysis data, and five preferred GCM (general circulation model) outputs selected from 23 GCMs of CMIP5 (Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), climate change scenarios including daily precipitation, maximum air temperature, and minimum air temperature from 2021 to 2050 in the Heihe River basin, which is the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China, were generated by constructing a statistical downscaling model (SDSM). Results showed that the SDSM had a good prediction capacity for the air temperature in the Heihe River basin. During the calibration and validation periods from 1961 to 1990 and from 1991 to 2000, respectively, the coefficient of determination (R2) and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) were both larger than 0.9, while the root mean square error (RMSE) was within 20%. However, the SDSM showed a relative lower simulation efficiency for precipitation, with R2 and NSE values of most meteorological stations reaching 0.5, except for stations located in the downstream desert areas. Compared with the baseline period (1976–2005), changes in the annual mean precipitation simulated by different GCMs during 2021–2050 showed great difference in the three RCP scenarios, fluctuating from −10 to +10%, which became much more significant at seasonal and monthly time scales, except for the consistent decreasing trend in summer and increasing trend in spring. However, the maximum and minimum air temperature exhibited a similar increasing tendency during 2021–2050 in all RCP scenarios, with a higher increase in maximum air temperature, which increased as the CO2 concentration of the RCP scenarios increased. The results could provide scientific reference for sustainable agricultural production and water resources management in arid inland areas subject to climate change.

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Identification of Water Scarcity and Providing Solutions for Adapting to Climate Changes in the Heihe River Basin of China

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2015/279173 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 2015 ◽

pp. 1-13 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

Xiangzheng Deng ◽

Chunhong Zhao

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Resource ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Optimal Allocation ◽

Water Productivity ◽

Heihe River Basin ◽

Heihe River ◽

The Heihe River Basin

In ecologically fragile areas with arid climate, such as the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China, sustainable social and economic development depends largely on the availability and sustainable uses of water resource. However, there is more and more serious water resource shortage and decrease of water productivity in Heihe River Basin under the influence of climate change and human activities. This paper attempts to identify the severe water scarcity under climate change and presents possible solutions for sustainable development in Heihe River Basin. Three problems that intervened land use changes, water resource, the relevant policies and institutions in Heihe River basin were identified, including (1) water scarcity along with serious contradiction between water supply and demand, (2) irrational water consumption structure along with low efficiency, and (3) deficient systems and institutions of water resource management along with unreasonable water allocation scheme. In this sense, we focused on reviewing the state of knowledge, institutions, and successful practices to cope with water scarcity at a regional extent. Possible solutions for dealing with water scarcity are explored and presented from three perspectives: (1) scientific researches needed by scientists, (2) management and institution formulation needed by governments, and (3) water resource optimal allocation by the manager at all administrative levels.

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