scholarly journals Accessing future crop yield and crop water productivity over the Heihe River basin in northwest China under a changing climate

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Liu ◽  
Jun Niu ◽  
Bellie Sivakumar ◽  
Risheng Ding ◽  
Sien Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Heihe River Basin ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Crop Water Productivity ◽  
The Heihe River Basin

AbstractQuantitative evaluation of the response of crop yield and crop water productivity (CWP) to future climate change is important to prevent or mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. This study made such an evaluation for the agricultural land over the Heihe River basin in northwest China. The ability of 31 climate models for simulating the precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature was evaluated for the studied area, and a multi-model ensemble was employed. Using the previously well-established Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), crop yield and crop water productivity of four major crops (corn, wheat, barley, and spring canola-Polish) in the Heihe River basin were simulated for three future time periods (2025–2049, 2050–2074, and 2075–2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results revealed that the impacts of future climate change on crop yield and CWP of wheat, barley, and canola would all be negative, whereas the impact on corn in the eastern part of the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin would be positive. On the whole, climate change under RCP8.5 scenario would be more harmful to crops, while the corn crops in the Minle and Shandan counties have better ability to cope with climate change.

scholarly journals Water Productivity Evaluation under Multi-GCM Projections of Climate Change in Oases of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 1706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liu Liu ◽  
Zezhong Guo ◽  
Guanhua Huang ◽  
Ruotong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Hexi Corridor ◽  
Heihe River Basin ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
The Heihe River Basin

As the second largest inland river basin situated in the middle of the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China, the Heihe River basin (HRB) has been facing a severe water shortage problem, which seriously restricts its green and sustainable development. The evaluation of climate change impact on water productivity inferred by crop yield and actual evapotranspiration is of significant importance for water-saving in agricultural regions. In this study, the multi-model projections of climate change under the three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) were used to drive an agro-hydrological model to evaluate the crop water productivity in the middle irrigated oases of the HRB from 2021–2050. Compared with the water productivity simulation based on field experiments during 2012–2015, the projected water productivity in the two typical agricultural areas (Gaotai and Ganzhou) both exhibited an increasing trend in the future 30 years, which was mainly attributed to the significant decrease of the crop water consumption. The water productivity in the Gaotai area under the three RCP scenarios during 2021–2050 increased by 9.2%, 14.3%, and 11.8%, while the water productivity increased by 15.4%, 21.6%, and 19.9% in the Ganzhou area, respectively. The findings can provide useful information on the Hexi Corridor and the Belt and Road to policy-makers and stakeholders for sustainable development of the water-ecosystem-economy system.

IMPACT OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2020–2059) ON THE HYDROLOGICAL REGIME IN THE HEIHE RIVER BASIN IN SHAANXI PROVINCE, CHINA

2019 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 1950003 ◽  
Author(s):  
AIDI HUO ◽  
XIAOFAN WANG ◽  
YUXIANG CHENG ◽  
CHUNLI ZHENG ◽  
CHENG JIANG
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Heihe River Basin ◽  
Shaanxi Province ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
The Heihe River Basin

Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and associated social and economic activities (such as farming) is important for water resources management in any river basin. In this study, we used the popular Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate the impacts of future climate change on the availability of water resources in the Heihe River basin located within Shaanxi Province, China, in terms of runoff and streamflow. The results show that over the next 40 years (starting in 2020 till 2059), changes in the averaged annual runoff ratio are approximately [Formula: see text]11.0%, [Formula: see text]6.4%, 7.2%, and 20.4% for each of the next four consecutive decades as compared to the baseline period (2010–2019). The predicted annual runoff demonstrates an increase trend after a reduction and may result in increased drought and flood risk in the Heihe River basin. To minimize or mitigate these impacts, various adaptation methods have been proposed for the study area, such as stopping irrigation, flood control operation; reasonable development and utilization of regional underground water sources should be implemented in Zhouzhi county and Huyi region in the lower reaches of Heihe River basin.

scholarly journals Identification of Water Scarcity and Providing Solutions for Adapting to Climate Changes in the Heihe River Basin of China

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangzheng Deng ◽  
Chunhong Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Optimal Allocation ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Heihe River Basin ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
The Heihe River Basin

In ecologically fragile areas with arid climate, such as the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China, sustainable social and economic development depends largely on the availability and sustainable uses of water resource. However, there is more and more serious water resource shortage and decrease of water productivity in Heihe River Basin under the influence of climate change and human activities. This paper attempts to identify the severe water scarcity under climate change and presents possible solutions for sustainable development in Heihe River Basin. Three problems that intervened land use changes, water resource, the relevant policies and institutions in Heihe River basin were identified, including (1) water scarcity along with serious contradiction between water supply and demand, (2) irrational water consumption structure along with low efficiency, and (3) deficient systems and institutions of water resource management along with unreasonable water allocation scheme. In this sense, we focused on reviewing the state of knowledge, institutions, and successful practices to cope with water scarcity at a regional extent. Possible solutions for dealing with water scarcity are explored and presented from three perspectives: (1) scientific researches needed by scientists, (2) management and institution formulation needed by governments, and (3) water resource optimal allocation by the manager at all administrative levels.

scholarly journals Land Use Zoning for Conserving Ecosystem Services under the Impact of Climate Change: A Case Study in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River Basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chenchen Shi ◽  
Jinyan Zhan ◽  
Yongwei Yuan ◽  
Feng Wu ◽  
Zhihui Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Heihe River Basin ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Heihe River Basin

Ecosystem services are the benefit human populations derive directly and indirectly from the natural environment. They suffer from both the human intervention, like land use zoning change, and natural intervention, like the climate change. Under the background of climate change, regulation services of ecosystem could be strengthened under proper land use zoning policy to mitigate the climate change. In this paper, a case study was conducted in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin to assess the ecosystem services conservation zoning under the change of land use associated with climate variations. The research results show the spatial impact of land use zoning on ecosystem services in the study area which are significant reference for the spatial optimization of land use zoning in preserving the key ecosystem services to mitigate the climate change. The research contributes to the growing literature in finely characterizing the ecosystem services zones altered by land use change to alleviate the impact of climate change, as there is no such systematic ecosystem zoning method before.

scholarly journals Multi-Model Projections of Climate Change in Different RCP Scenarios in an Arid Inland Region, Northwest China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruotong Wang ◽  
Qiuya Cheng ◽  
Liu Liu ◽  
Churui Yan ◽  
Guanhua Huang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Heihe River Basin ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature ◽  
The Heihe River Basin ◽  
Minimum Air Temperature

Based on three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), observed meteorological data, ERA-40 reanalysis data, and five preferred GCM (general circulation model) outputs selected from 23 GCMs of CMIP5 (Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), climate change scenarios including daily precipitation, maximum air temperature, and minimum air temperature from 2021 to 2050 in the Heihe River basin, which is the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China, were generated by constructing a statistical downscaling model (SDSM). Results showed that the SDSM had a good prediction capacity for the air temperature in the Heihe River basin. During the calibration and validation periods from 1961 to 1990 and from 1991 to 2000, respectively, the coefficient of determination (R2) and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) were both larger than 0.9, while the root mean square error (RMSE) was within 20%. However, the SDSM showed a relative lower simulation efficiency for precipitation, with R2 and NSE values of most meteorological stations reaching 0.5, except for stations located in the downstream desert areas. Compared with the baseline period (1976–2005), changes in the annual mean precipitation simulated by different GCMs during 2021–2050 showed great difference in the three RCP scenarios, fluctuating from −10 to +10%, which became much more significant at seasonal and monthly time scales, except for the consistent decreasing trend in summer and increasing trend in spring. However, the maximum and minimum air temperature exhibited a similar increasing tendency during 2021–2050 in all RCP scenarios, with a higher increase in maximum air temperature, which increased as the CO2 concentration of the RCP scenarios increased. The results could provide scientific reference for sustainable agricultural production and water resources management in arid inland areas subject to climate change.

Climate change impacts on crop water productivity in Africa using a multi-model inter-comparison

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imeshi Weerasinghe ◽  
Celray James Chawanda ◽  
Ann van Griensven
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Yield Data ◽  
Water Vapour Flux ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
Crop Water Productivity

<p>Evapotranspiration (ET) or the water vapour flux is an important component in the water cycle and is widely studied due to its implications in disciplines ranging from hydrology to agricultural and climate sciences. In the recent past, growing attention has been given to estimating ET fluxes at regional and global scales. However, estimation of ET at large scales has been a difficult task due to direct measurement of ET being possible only at point locations, for example using flux towers. For the African continent, only a limited number of flux tower data are openly available for use, which makes verification of regional and global ET products very difficult. Recent advances in satellite based products provide promising data to fill these observational gaps.</p><p>In this study we propose to investigate the Climate Change (CC) impact on crop water productivity across Africa using ET and crop yield predictions of different crop models for future climate scenarios. Different model outputs are evaluated including models from both the ISI-MIP 2a and 2b protocols. Considering the problem of direct observations of ET being difficult to obtain, especially over Africa, we use ET estimates from several remotely sensed derived products as a references to evaluate the crop models (maize) in terms of magnitude, spatial patterns and variations between models. The crop model results for crop yield are compared to FAO reported crop yields at country scale. The results show a very strong disagreement between the different crop models of the baseline scenario and when compared with ET and crop yield data.  Also, a very large uncertainty is obtained for the climate change predictions. It is hence recommended to improve the crop models for application in Africa.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document