Impacts of Climatic Variation and Human Activity on Runoff in Western China

Hydrological cycle is sensitively affected by climatic variation and human activity. Taking the upper- and middle-stream of the Weihe River in western China as an example, using multiple meteorological and hydrological elements, as well as land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) data, we constructed a sensitivity model of runoff to climatic elements and human activities based on the hydro-thermal coupling equilibrium equation, while a cumulative slope was used to establish a comprehensive estimation model for the contributions of climatic variation and human activities to the changes of runoff. The results showed that the above function model established could be well applied to quantitatively study the elasticity of runoff’s response to climatic variation and human activities. It was found that the annual average precipitation, evaporation, wind velocity, sunshine hours, relative humidity and runoff showed decreasing trends and that temperature increased. While in the hydrological cycle, precipitation and relative humidity had a non-linear positive driving effect on runoff, while temperature, evaporation, sunshine hours, wind velocity, and land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) have non-linearly negatively driven the variation of runoff. Moreover, runoff has a strong sensitive response to precipitation, evaporation and LUCC. In areas with strong human activities, the sensitivity of runoff to climatic change was decreasing, and runoff has a greater elastic response to underlying surface parameters. In addition, the analysis showed that the abrupt years of climate and runoff changes in the Weihe River Basin were 1970, 1985 and 1993. Before 1985, the contribution rate of climatic variation to runoff was 68.3%, being greater than that of human activities to runoff, and then the contribution rates of human activities to runoff reached 75.1%. The impact of natural climate on runoff was weakened, and the effect of human activities on runoff reduction increased. Under 30 hypothetical climatic scenarios, the evaluation of runoff in the future showed that the runoff in the Weihe River Basin will be greatly reduced, and the reduction will be more significant during the flood season. Comparing the geographically fragile environments and intense human activities, it was believed that climatic variation had a dramatic effect on driving the water cycle of precipitation and evaporation and affected regional water balance and water distribution, while human activities had driven the hydrological processes of the underlying surface, thus becoming the main factors in the reduction of runoff. This study provided scientific tools for regional climate change and water resources assessment.

A Hard-Science Approach to Kondratieff’s Economic Cycle

In an effort to evidence the Kondratieff cycle more scientifically than the way economists do, physical variables are studied rather than monetary indicators. Previously published graphs are reproduced and updated here with recent data. A cyclical rather regular variation of energy consumption reveals a 56-year cycle. A dozen human endeavors/phenomena, such as bank failures, homicides, hurricanes, feminism, and sunspot activity are shown to resonate with this cycle. Possible explanations for this phenomenon may have to do with a climatic variation or with the length of time any individual actively influences the environment. There is some evidence that the cycle may be getting shorter in amplitude and duration in recent years. All quantitative confidence levels involved in these observations are poor by scientific standards and permit critics to question the very existence of this phenomenon.

Serology for Borrelia spp. in Northwest Italy: A Climate-Matched 10-Year Trend

Ticks are hematophagous parasites that can transmit a variety of human pathogens, and their life cycle is dependent on several climatic factors for development and survival. We conducted a study in Piedmont and Aosta Valley, Italy, between 2009 and 2018. The study matched human sample serologies for Borrelia spp. with publicly available climatic and meteorological data. A total of 12,928 serological immunofluorescence assays (IFA) and Western blot (WB) tests were analysed. The median number of IFA and WB tests per year was 1236 (range 700–1997), with the highest demand in autumn 2018 (N = 289). In the study period, positive WB showed an increasing trend, peaking in 2018 for both IgM (N = 97) and IgG (N = 61). These results were consistent with a regional climatic variation trending towards an increase in both temperature and humidity. Our results suggest that coupling data from epidemiology and the environment, and the use of a “one health” approach, may provide a powerful tool in understanding disease transmission and strengthen collaboration between specialists in the era of climate instability.

Demographic responses of a threatened, low-density ungulate to annual variation in meteorological and phenological conditions

As global climate change progresses, wildlife management will benefit from knowledge of demographic responses to climatic variation, particularly for species already endangered by other stressors. In Canada, climate change is expected to increasingly impact populations of threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) and much focus has been placed on how a warming climate has potentially facilitated the northward expansion of apparent competitors and novel predators. Climate change, however, may also exert more direct effects on caribou populations that are not mediated by predation. These effects include meteorological changes that influence resource availability and energy expenditure. Research on other ungulates suggests that climatic variation may have minimal impact on low-density populations such as woodland caribou because per-capita resources may remain sufficient even in “bad” years. We evaluated this prediction using demographic data from 21 populations in western Canada that were monitored for various intervals between 1994 and 2015. We specifically assessed whether juvenile recruitment and adult female survival were correlated with annual variation in meteorological metrics and plant phenology. Against expectations, we found that both vital rates appeared to be influenced by annual climatic variation. Juvenile recruitment was primarily correlated with variation in phenological conditions in the year prior to birth. Adult female survival was more strongly correlated with meteorological conditions and declined during colder, more variable winters. These responses may be influenced by the life history of woodland caribou, which reside in low-productivity refugia where small climatic changes may result in changes to resources that are sufficient to elicit strong demographic effects. Across all models, explained variation in vital rates was low, suggesting that other factors had greater influence on caribou demography. Nonetheless, given the declining trajectories of many woodland caribou populations, our results highlight the increased relevance of recovery actions when adverse climatic conditions are likely to negatively affect caribou demography.

Investigating the Effect of High-Rise Buildings’ Mass Geometry on Energy Efficiency within the Climatic Variation of Egypt

Energy conservation is recently the most important issue all over the world, including in Egypt. Recently, the built environment of Egypt has experienced a dramatic change in its buildings’ typology, with more interest in constructing high-rise buildings. This in turn creates high demand for energy, as high-rise buildings are considered to be one of the most energy-consuming types of buildings. Egypt has a wide variety in its climatic conditions, with seven different inhabited climatic regions, and a further one which is uninhabited. Therefore, integrating the energy efficiency of a building as a major design factor in the early design stages of such a type of buildings is important. This article is concerned with investigating the effect of high-rise buildings’ geometrical shape on the building’s energy consumption within the different climatic regions of Egypt. Four building shapes (square, circular, rectangular, and ellipse) are examined. The long axe of the models is oriented to the north (“the optimum orientation within all regions”), with a window-to-wall ratio (WWR) of 30%. The performance of these models is studied in seven cities representing the inhabited Egyptian climatic regions using simulation software, DesignBuilder, with the EnergyPlus simulation tool. Study findings revealed that adjusting the geometric form of the building significantly affects energy consumption and thermal comfort with climatic variation. The most compact shape, circular, was the most suitable geometrical shape in four regions out of seven. The ellipse shape was found to be the most suitable mass geometry within two other regions, while the square shape was found to be effective in only one region. The results of this research indicate that designers should not use the rectangular shape anywhere across Egypt.

Responses of Soil Microbial Community and Enzyme Activities to Shrub Species Artemisia gmelinii in Relation to Varying Rainfall in a Semiarid Land, SW China

Widely distributed shrubs in drylands can locally alter soil physicochemical properties, which distinguish soil under plant canopy from soil outside the canopy. In the present study, we used a dominant shrub species Artemisia gmelinii in a semiarid land, SW China, to investigate the consequences of “shrub resource islands” for soil microbial communities and enzymatic activities. Such investigation was made at four sites that differed in rates of rainfall to examine how the consequences were altered by variation in the local climate. The results showed that A. gmelinii enhanced fungal abundance but did not influence bacterial abundance, resulting in higher total microbial abundance and fungal-to-bacterial ratio in under-canopy soil compared to outside-canopy soil. Microbial community composition also differed between the two soils, but this difference only occurred at sites of low rainfall. Redundancy analysis revealed that such composition was attributed to variation in soil water content, bulk density, and total phosphorus as a result of shrub canopy and varying rates of rainfall. Activities of hydrolytic enzymes (β-1,4-glucosidase, β-1,4-N-acetylglucosaminidase, alkaline phosphatase, and leucine aminopeptidase) were higher in under-canopy soil than in outside-canopy soil, among which C-acquisition enzyme, β-1,4-glucosidase, and P-acquisition enzyme, alkaline phosphatase, were also higher in the soil of high rainfall. The overall pattern of enzyme activities did not show differences between under- and outside-canopy soils, but it separated the sites of high rate from that of low rates of rainfall. This pattern was primarily driven by variation in soil physicochemical properties rather than variation in soil microbial community, suggesting that the distribution pattern of enzyme activities may be more sensitive to variation in rainfall than to shrub canopy. In conclusion, our study shows that shrub species A. gmelinii can shift the soil microbial community to be fungal-dominant and increase hydrolytic enzyme activities, and such effect may depend on local climatic variation, for example, rainfall changes in the semiarid land. The findings of this study highlight the important roles of shrub vegetation in soil biological functions and the sensitivity of such roles to climatic variation in semiarid ecosystems.

Quantifying Fenestration Effect on Thermal Comfort in Naturally Ventilated Classrooms

This study seeks to evaluate thermal comfort in naturally ventilated classrooms to draw sustainable solutions that reduce the dramatic energy consumed in mechanically ventilated spaces. Passive ventilation scenarios are generated using alternations of openings on the windward and leeward sides to evaluate their effects on thermal comfort. Twenty-eight experiments were carried in Bahrain during winter inside an exposed classroom, the experiments were grouped into five scenarios namely: “single-inlet single-outlet” SISO, “single-inlet double-outlet” SIDO, “double-inlet single-outlet” DISO, “double-inlet double-outlet” DIDO and “single-side ventilation” SSV. The findings indicate that single-side ventilation did not offer comfort except at high airspeed, while comfort is attained by using cross-ventilation at ambient temperature between 21.8–26.8 °C. The temperature difference between monitored locations and the inlet is inversely proportional to the number of air changes per hour. The DISO scenario accomplishes the lowest temperature difference. Using cross-ventilation instead of single-side ventilation reduces the temperature differences between 0.5–2.5 °C and increases airspeed up to three folds. According to the measured findings, the DISO cross-ventilation scenario is a valid sustainable solution adaptable to climatic variation locally and beyond with zero-energy consumption and zero emissions.

Environmental and Management Effects on Demographic Processes in the U.S. Threatened Platanthera leucophaea (Nutt.) Lindl. (Orchidaceae)

Populations of the U.S. threatened orchid, Platanthera leucophaea, are restricted to fragmented grassland and wetland habitats. We address the long-term (1998–2020) interactive effects of habitat (upland prairie vs. wetland), fire management (burned vs. unburned) and climatic variation, as well as pollination crossing effects, on population demography in 42 populations. Our analysis revealed the consistent interactive effects of habitat, dormant season burning, and climatic variation on flowering, reproduction, and survival. Burning increased flowering and population size under normal or greater than normal precipitation but may have a negative effect during drought years apparently if soil moisture stress reduces flowering and increases mortality. Trends in the number of flowering plants in populations also correspond to precipitation cycles. As with flowering and fecundity, survival is significantly affected by the interactive effects of habitat, fire, and climate. This study supports previous studies finding that P. leucophaea relies on a facultative outcrossing breeding system. Demographic modeling indicated that fire, normal precipitation, and outcrossing yielded greater population growth, and that greater fire frequency increased population persistence. It also revealed an ecologically driven demographic switch, with wetlands more dependent upon survivorship than fecundity, and uplands more dependent on fecundity than survivorship. Our results facilitate an understanding of environmental and management effects on the population demography of P. leucophaea in the prairie region of its distribution. Parallel studies are needed in the other habitats such as wetlands, especially in the eastern part of the range of the species, to provide a more complete picture.

Ramification of Global and Local Climatic Variability on Resurgent Cases of Dengue in Delhi, India

It has become evident that the global climate is changing rapidly over the past few decades. The variation and change in the global climatic factors have a notable impact on the local climate of a region. The changing climate is widely regarded as one of the most serious global health threats of the 21st century. Among various kinds of diseases, the most vulnerable to these changes are vector-borne diseases. In the Indian context, particularly Delhi city is the most vulnerable to dengue, a kind of vector-borne disease having its highest impact. We sought to identify and explore the correlation and influence of the global climatic phenomena and local climatic factors with the reported number of dengue cases in Delhi. The temporal expansions of reported dengue cases in Delhi have a variation from its first major outbreak in the city during the year 1996 to 2015. A statistical tool like Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) is used in this study to establish the interrelationship and the level of impact and local climatic variation on dengue. An exceptional negative correlation value of r = -0.82 between the monsoon index and the dengue incidences was reported during the positive years and also maintains a very high positive correlation with other global climatic indices. The study here finds that there is a strong correlation of climatic variation which further influences the epidemiology of dengue in Delhi.