scholarly journals A Fuzzy Model of Risk Assessment for Environmental Start-Up Projects in the Air Transport Sector

Author(s):  
Volodymyr Polishchuk ◽  
Miroslav Kelemen ◽  
Beáta Gavurová ◽  
Costas Varotsos ◽  
Rudolf Andoga ◽  
...  

The purpose of this paper is to develop a fuzzy model of the risk assessment for environmental start-up projects in the air transport sector at the stage of business expansion. The model developed for the following software will be a useful tool for the risk decision support system of investment funds in financing environmental start-up projects at the stage of market conquest. Developing a quantitative risk assessment for environmental start-up projects for the air transport sector will increase the resilience of making risk decisions about their financing by the investors. In this paper, a set of 21 criteria for assessing the risk of launching environmental start-up projects in the air transport sector were formulated for the first time by presenting inputs in the form of a linguistic risk assessment and the number of credible expert considerations. The fuzzy risk assessment model, based on expert knowledge, uses linguistic variables, reveals the uncertainty of the input data, and displays a risk assessment with linguistic interpretation. The result of the paper is a fuzzy model that is embedded in a generalized algorithm and tested in an example risk assessment of environmental start-up projects in the air transport sector.

Author(s):  
Volodymyr Polishchuk ◽  
Miroslav Kelemen ◽  
Beáta Gavurová ◽  
Costas Varotsos ◽  
Rudolf Andoga ◽  
...  

The authors wish to make the following correction to their paper [...]


2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 521-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song YANG ◽  
Shuqin WU ◽  
Ningqiu LI ◽  
Cunbin SHI ◽  
Guocheng DENG ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 180305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanpu Xia ◽  
Ziming Xiong ◽  
Hao Lu ◽  
Zhu Wen ◽  
Chao Ma

Risk assessment has always been an important part of safety risk research in tunnel and underground engineering. Owing to the characteristics of tunnel construction, to achieve an expected risk control effect, it is necessary to carry out accurate risk assessment research according to the risk assessment concept based on the entire tunnel construction process. At present, because of the frequent occurrences of safety accidents, a variety of risk assessment models have been proposed for different tunnel projects such as subways and railway tunnels, which can be roughly classified into two types: probability-based and fuzzy set theories. However, the existing models may be more suitable for the construction stage, and the design stage lacks a reliable and practical fuzzy risk assessment method. Therefore, based on fuzzy set theory and similarity measure theory, a risk assessment model is proposed to adapt to the characteristics that the risk information is difficult to quantify the fuzziness in the design phase. Firstly, new ideas of fuzzy risk analysis are proposed to overcome deficiencies in existing methods; secondly, a new similarity measure is constructed; then fusing multi-source fuzzy information based on evidence theory, the relationship between similarity measure and mass function is established. Finally, the new method is applied to the Yuelongmen tunnel. Results show that the concept of risk control and the risk assessment model are feasible.


2001 ◽  
Vol 127 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. HARTNETT ◽  
L. KELLY ◽  
D. NEWELL ◽  
M. WOOLDRIDGE ◽  
G. GETTINBY

A quantitative risk assessment model investigating the risk of human infection with campylobacter from the consumption of chicken meat/products is currently being formulated. Here such an approach is used to evaluate the probability that a random bird, selected at slaughter from Great Britain's national poultry flock, will be campylobacter-positive. This is determined from the probability that a flock chosen at random contains at least one colonized bird and the within-flock prevalence of such a flock at slaughter. The model indicates that the probability bird chosen at random being campylobacter-positive at slaughter is 0·53. This probability value has associated uncertainty, the 5th percentile being 0·51 and the 95th percentile 0·55. The model predicts that delaying the age at first exposure to campylobacter can have a significant impact on reducing the probability of a bird being campylobacter-positive at slaughter. However, implementation of current biosecurity methods makes this difficult to achieve.


2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
pp. 1813-1833 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenpei Xu ◽  
Ting-Kwei Wang

PurposeThis study provides a safety prewarning mechanism, which includes a comprehensive risk assessment model and a safety prewarning system. The comprehensive risk assessment model is capable of assessing nine safety indicators, which can be categorised into workers’ behaviour, environment and machine-related safety indicators, and the model is embedded in the safety prewarning system. The safety prewarning system can automatically extract safety information from surveillance cameras based on computer vision, assess risks based on the embedded comprehensive risk assessment model, categorise risks into five levels and provide timely suggestions.Design/methodology/approachFirstly, the comprehensive risk assessment model is constructed by adopting grey multihierarchical analysis method. The method combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the grey clustering evaluation in the grey theory. Expert knowledge, obtained through the questionnaire approach, contributes to set weights of risk indicators and evaluate risks. Secondly, a safety prewarning system is developed, including data acquisition layer, data processing layer and prewarning layer. Computer vision is applied in the system to automatically extract real-time safety information from the surveillance cameras. The safety information is then processed through the comprehensive risk assessment model and categorized into five risk levels. A case study is presented to verify the proposed mechanism.FindingsThrough a case study, the result shows that the proposed mechanism is capable of analyzing integrated human-machine-environment risk, timely categorising risks into five risk levels and providing potential suggestions.Originality/valueThe comprehensive risk assessment model is capable of assessing nine risk indicators, identifying three types of entities, workers, environment and machine on the construction site, presenting the integrated risk based on nine indicators. The proposed mechanism, which adopts expert knowledge through Building Information Modeling (BIM) safety simulation and extracts safety information based on computer vision, can perform a dynamic real-time risk analysis, categorize risks into five risk levels and provide potential suggestions to corresponding risk owners. The proposed mechanism can allow the project manager to take timely actions.


2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (No. 2) ◽  
pp. 122-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Ačai ◽  
Ľ. Valík ◽  
D. Liptáková

Quantitative risk assessment of Bacillus cereus using data from pasteurised milk produced in Slovakia was performed. Monte Carlo simulations were used for probability calculation of B. cereus density at the time of pasteurised milk consumption for several different scenarios. The results of the general case exposure assessment indicated that almost 14% of cartons can contain &gt; 10<sup>4</sup> CFU/ml of B. cereus at the time of pasteurised milk consumption. Despite the absence of a generally applicable dose-response relationship that limits a full risk assessment, the probability of intoxication per serving and the estimated number of cases in the population were calculated for the general exposure assessment scenario using an exponential dose-response model based on Slovak data. The mean number of annual cases provided by the risk assessment model for pasteurised milk produced in Slovakia was 0.054/100 000 population. In comparison, the overall reporting rate of the outbreaks in the EU in which B. cereus toxins were the causative agent was 0.02/100 000 population in 2010. Our assessment is in accordance with a generally accepted fact that reporting data for alimentary intoxication are underestimated, mostly due to the short duration of the illness. &nbsp;


Author(s):  
Miroslav Kelemen ◽  
Volodymyr Polishchuk ◽  
Beáta Gavurová ◽  
Stanislav Szabo ◽  
Róbert Rozenberg ◽  
...  

The authors wish to add the following data corrections to the coauthors listed, because of the updated data for their paper published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health [...]


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