scholarly journals Application of Functional Data Analysis to Identify Patterns of Malaria Incidence, to Guide Targeted Control Strategies

Author(s):  
Sokhna Dieng ◽  
Pierre Michel ◽  
Abdoulaye Guindo ◽  
Kankoe Sallah ◽  
El-Hadj Ba ◽  
...  

We introduce an approach based on functional data analysis to identify patterns of malaria incidence to guide effective targeting of malaria control in a seasonal transmission area. Using functional data method, a smooth function (functional data or curve) was fitted from the time series of observed malaria incidence for each of 575 villages in west-central Senegal from 2008 to 2012. These 575 smooth functions were classified using hierarchical clustering (Ward’s method), and several different dissimilarity measures. Validity indices were used to determine the number of distinct temporal patterns of malaria incidence. Epidemiological indicators characterizing the resulting malaria incidence patterns were determined from the velocity and acceleration of their incidences over time. We identified three distinct patterns of malaria incidence: high-, intermediate-, and low-incidence patterns in respectively 2% (12/575), 17% (97/575), and 81% (466/575) of villages. Epidemiological indicators characterizing the fluctuations in malaria incidence showed that seasonal outbreaks started later, and ended earlier, in the low-incidence pattern. Functional data analysis can be used to identify patterns of malaria incidence, by considering their temporal dynamics. Epidemiological indicators derived from their velocities and accelerations, may guide to target control measures according to patterns.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sokhna DIENG ◽  
Pierre Michel ◽  
Abdoulaye Guindo ◽  
Kankoe Sallah ◽  
El-hadj Ba ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Effective targeting of malaria control in low transmission areas requires identification of transmission foci or hotspots. We investigated the use of functional data analysis to identify and describe spatio-temporal pattern of malaria incidence in an area with seasonal transmission in west-central Senegal. Method Malaria surveillance was maintained over 5 years from 2008 to 2012 at health facilities serving a population of 500,000 in 575 villages in two health districts in Senegal. Smooth functions were fitted from the time series of malaria incidence for each village, using cubic B-spline basis functions. The resulting smooth functions for each village were classified using hierarchical clustering (Ward’s method), using several different dissimilarity measures. The optimal number of clusters was then determined based on four cluster validity indices, to determine the main types of distinct temporal pattern of malaria incidence. Epidemiological indicators characterizing the resulting malaria incidence pattern in terms of the timing of seasonal outbreaks, were calculated based on the slope (velocity) and rate of change of the slope (acceleration) of the incidence over time. Results Three distinct patterns of malaria incidence were identified. A pattern characterized by high incidence, in 12/575 (2%) villages, with average incidence of 114 cases/1000 person-years over the 5 year study period; a pattern with intermediate incidence in 97 villages (17%), with average incidence of 13 cases/1000 person-years; and a pattern with low incidence in 466 (81%) villages, with average incidence 2.6 cases/1000 person-years. Epidemiological indicators characterizing the fluctuations in malaria incidence showed that seasonal outbreaks started later, and ended earlier, in the low incidence pattern. Conclusion Functional data analysis can be used to classify communities based on time series of malaria incidence, and to identify high incidence communities. Indicators can be derived from the fitted functions which characterize the timing of outbreaks. These tools may help to better target control measures.


Biometrika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenhua Lin ◽  
Jane-Ling Wang ◽  
Qixian Zhong

Summary Estimation of mean and covariance functions is fundamental for functional data analysis. While this topic has been studied extensively in the literature, a key assumption is that there are enough data in the domain of interest to estimate both the mean and covariance functions. In this paper, we investigate mean and covariance estimation for functional snippets in which observations from a subject are available only in an interval of length strictly (and often much) shorter than the length of the whole interval of interest. For such a sampling plan, no data is available for direct estimation of the off-diagonal region of the covariance function. We tackle this challenge via a basis representation of the covariance function. The proposed estimator enjoys a convergence rate that is adaptive to the smoothness of the underlying covariance function, and has superior finite-sample performance in simulation studies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 194-195
Author(s):  
Kaiyuan Hua ◽  
Sheng Luo ◽  
Katherine Hall ◽  
Miriam Morey ◽  
Harvey Cohen

Abstract Background. Functional decline in conjunction with low levels of physical activity has implications for health risks in older adults. Previous studies have examined the associations between accelerometry-derived activity and physical function, but most of these studies reduced these data into average means of total daily physical activity (e.g., daily step counts). A new method of analysis “functional data analysis” provides more in-depth capability using minute-level accelerometer data. Methods. A secondary analysis of community-dwelling adults ages 30 to 90+ residing in southwest region of North Carolina from the Physical Performance across the Lifespan (PALS) study. PALS assessments were completed in-person at baseline and one-week of accelerometry. Final analysis includes 669 observations at baseline with minute-level accelerometer data from 7:00 to 23:00, after removing non-wear time. A novel scalar-on-function regression analysis was used to explore the associations between baseline physical activity features (minute-by-minute vector magnitude generated from accelerometer) and baseline physical function (gait speed, single leg stance, chair stands, and 6-minute walk test) with control for baseline age, sex, race and body mass index. Results. The functional regressions were significant for specific times of day indicating increased physical activity associated with increased physical function around 8:00, 9:30 and 15:30-17:00 for rapid gait speed; 9:00-10:30 and 15:00-16:30 for normal gait speed; 9:00-10:30 for single leg stance; 9:30-11:30 and 15:00-18:00 for chair stands; 9:00-11:30 and 15:00-18:30 for 6-minute walk. Conclusion. This method of functional data analysis provides news insights into the relationship between minute-by-minute daily activity and health.


2021 ◽  
pp. 109028
Author(s):  
Silvia Novo ◽  
Germán Aneiros ◽  
Philippe Vieu

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1305
Author(s):  
Feliu Serra-Burriel ◽  
Pedro Delicado ◽  
Fernando M. Cucchietti

In recent years, wildfires have caused havoc across the world, which are especially aggravated in certain regions due to climate change. Remote sensing has become a powerful tool for monitoring fires, as well as for measuring their effects on vegetation over the following years. We aim to explain the dynamics of wildfires’ effects on a vegetation index (previously estimated by causal inference through synthetic controls) from pre-wildfire available information (mainly proceeding from satellites). For this purpose, we use regression models from Functional Data Analysis, where wildfire effects are considered functional responses, depending on elapsed time after each wildfire, while pre-wildfire information acts as scalar covariates. Our main findings show that vegetation recovery after wildfires is a slow process, affected by many pre-wildfire conditions, among which the richness and diversity of vegetation is one of the best predictors for the recovery.


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