scholarly journals An Optimal Nucleic Acid Testing Strategy for COVID-19 during the Spring Festival Travel Rush in Mainland China: A Modelling Study

Author(s):  
Yu-Hao Zhou ◽  
Ke Ma ◽  
Peng Xiao ◽  
Run-Ze Ye ◽  
Lin Zhao ◽  
...  

Western countries are experiencing surges in COVID-19 cases and deaths due to increasing public transportation during holiday seasons. This study aimed to explore whether mainland China will face an epidemic rebound during the Spring Festival holiday, when millions of Chinese people travel across the country, and investigate which nucleic acid testing (NAT) strategy is optimal to contain the epidemic. A microsimulation model was used to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission among railway travelers and evaluated the effects of various NAT strategies. An extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model was built to forecast local transmission during the Spring Festival period under different scenarios of testing strategies. The total number of infections, testing burden, and medical expenditure were calculated to devise an optimal strategy during the Spring Festival travel rush. Assuming the daily incidence of 20 per 10 million persons, our model simulated that there would be 97 active infections on the day of travel among 10 million railway passengers without NAT and symptom screening. Pre-travel testing could reduce the number of active infections. Compared with no NAT, testing passengers from risk tier 2–4 regions 3 days before travelling could significantly reduce the risk of transmission, and it is more economical and efficient than testing for all passengers.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongjie Li ◽  
Fengfeng Liu ◽  
Jinzhao Cui ◽  
Zhibin Peng ◽  
Zhaorui Chang ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Dustin E Bosch ◽  
Patrick C Mathias ◽  
Niklas Krumm ◽  
Andrew Bryan ◽  
Ferric C Fang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background An elevated white blood cell count (>15 thousand/μL) is an established prognostic marker in patients with Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). Small observational studies have suggested that a markedly elevated WBC should prompt consideration of CDI. However, there is limited evidence correlating WBC elevation with the results of C. difficile nucleic acid testing (NAAT). Methods Retrospective review of laboratory testing, outcomes, and treatment of 16,568 consecutive patients presenting to 4 hospitals over four years with NAAT and WBC testing on the same day. Results No significant relationship between C. difficile NAAT results and concurrent WBC in the inpatient setting was observed. Although an elevated WBC did predict NAAT results in the outpatient and emergency department populations (p<0.001), accuracy was poor, with receiver-operator areas under the curve of 0.59 and 0.56. An elevated WBC (>15 thousand/μL) in CDI was associated with a longer median hospital length of stay (15.5 vs. 11.0 days, p<0.01), consistent with leukocytosis as a prognostic marker in CDI. NAAT-positive inpatients with elevated WBC were more likely to be treated with metronidazole and/or vancomycin (relative ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.3) and die in the hospital (relative ratio 2.9, 95% CI 2.0–4.3). Conclusions Although WBC is an important prognostic indicator in patients with CDI, an isolated WBC elevation has low sensitivity and specificity as a predictor of fecal C. difficile NAAT positivity in the inpatient setting. A high or rising WBC in isolation is not a sufficient indication for CDI testing.


Author(s):  
Andreas Osterman ◽  
Maximilian Iglhaut ◽  
Andreas Lehner ◽  
Patricia Späth ◽  
Marcel Stern ◽  
...  

AbstractA versatile portfolio of diagnostic tests is essential for the containment of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Besides nucleic acid-based test systems and point-of-care (POCT) antigen (Ag) tests, quantitative, laboratory-based nucleocapsid Ag tests for SARS-CoV-2 have recently been launched. Here, we evaluated four commercial Ag tests on automated platforms and one POCT to detect SARS-CoV-2. We evaluated PCR-positive (n = 107) and PCR-negative (n = 303) respiratory swabs from asymptomatic and symptomatic patients at the end of the second pandemic wave in Germany (February–March 2021) as well as clinical isolates EU1 (B.1.117), variant of concern (VOC) Alpha (B.1.1.7) or Beta (B.1.351), which had been expanded in a biosafety level 3 laboratory. The specificities of automated SARS-CoV-2 Ag tests ranged between 97.0 and 99.7% (Lumipulse G SARS-CoV-2 Ag (Fujirebio): 97.03%, Elecsys SARS-CoV-2 Ag (Roche Diagnostics): 97.69%; LIAISON® SARS-CoV-2 Ag (Diasorin) and SARS-CoV-2 Ag ELISA (Euroimmun): 99.67%). In this study cohort of hospitalized patients, the clinical sensitivities of tests were low, ranging from 17.76 to 52.34%, and analytical sensitivities ranged from 420,000 to 25,000,000 Geq/ml. In comparison, the detection limit of the Roche Rapid Ag Test (RAT) was 9,300,000 Geq/ml, detecting 23.58% of respiratory samples. Receiver-operating-characteristics (ROCs) and Youden’s index analyses were performed to further characterize the assays’ overall performance and determine optimal assay cutoffs for sensitivity and specificity. VOCs carrying up to four amino acid mutations in nucleocapsid were detected by all five assays with characteristics comparable to non-VOCs. In summary, automated, quantitative SARS-CoV-2 Ag tests show variable performance and are not necessarily superior to a standard POCT. The efficacy of any alternative testing strategies to complement nucleic acid-based assays must be carefully evaluated by independent laboratories prior to widespread implementation.


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