scholarly journals An Improved Failure Risk Assessment Method for Bilge System of the Large Luxury Cruise Ship under Fire Accident Conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 957
Author(s):  
Zhongzhi Liu ◽  
Zhiwei Guo ◽  
Yongqing Li ◽  
Libao Zhu ◽  
Chengqing Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Calculation Model ◽  
Risk Coefficient ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Weight Calculation ◽  
Accident Conditions ◽  
Fire Accident

This paper develops an improved failure risk assessment method and discusses the risk control measures for a large luxury cruise ship’s bilge system under fire accident conditions. The proposed method incorporates an expert weight calculation model and a risk coefficient calculation model. The expert weight calculation model considers the differences in experts’ expertise levels (i.e., qualification level, decision-making capacity, and decision-making preference). Further, the method integrates the evaluations resulting from fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and extended fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) of different experts. The risk coefficient (RC) calculation model utilizes a three-dimensional continuous matrix, serving to determine the risk factors’ ratings. The influences of the expert weight and RC calculation models on the proposed method’s performance are studied through a sensitivity analysis. The work demonstrates that the proposed method minimizes the issues encountered when using conventional methods for determining risk ratings. Finally, the results of an empirical study comprising ten experts evaluating the VISTA cruise ship’s bilge system prove the applicability of the proposed method and offer practical design guidelines to meet the regulations for Safe Return to Port (SRtP).

scholarly journals A Comprehensive Failure Risk Assessment Method of Machining Center Component Based on Topology Analysis

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 423
Author(s):  
Liming Mu ◽  
Yingzhi Zhang ◽  
Guiming Guo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Failure Mode ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Topology Analysis ◽  
Propagation Failure ◽  
Machining Center ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Influence Degree

The risk assessment of the failure mode of the traditional machining center component rarely considers the topological characteristics of the system and the influence of propagation risks, which makes the failure risk assessment results biased. Therefore, this paper proposes a comprehensive failure risk assessment method of a machining center component based on topology analysis. On the basis of failure mode and cause analysis, considering the correlation of failure modes, Analytic Network Process (ANP) is used to calculate the influence degree of failure modes, and it is combined with component failure mode frequency ratio and failure rate function to calculate independent failure risk. The ANP model of the machining center is transformed into a topological model, and the centrality measurement of network theory is used to analyze the topology of the machining center. The weight of the topological structure index is measured by subjective and objective weighting methods, and then the importance degree of the machining center component is calculated. In this paper, the coupling degree function is introduced to calculate the importance of the connection edge, which is combined with the failure probability to calculate the failure propagation influence degree, and the component propagation failure risk is calculated based on this. Finally, the independent failure risk and the propagation failure risk of the component are integrated to realize the failure risk assessment of the component. Taking a certain type of machining center as an example to illustrate the application, compared with the traditional assessment method, the effectiveness and advancement of the method proposed in this paper have been verified.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment in PPP Projects by Applying Different MCDM Methods and Comparative Results Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alireza Valipour ◽  
Hadi Sarvari ◽  
Jolanta Tamošaitiene
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Analytic Network Process ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Network Process ◽  
Comparative Results ◽  
Simple Additive Weighting

Recently, risk assessment has become one of the most challenging issues in the areas of construction and public-private partnerships (PPPs). To address risk assessment issues, various decision-making techniques have been proposed, each with its own specific disadvantages and advantages. This paper investigates step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA), complex proportional assessment (COPRAS), fuzzy analytic network process (FANP), fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS), simple additive weighting (SAW) and evaluation based on distance from average solution (EDAS) in order to define how various multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) methods compare when used for risk assessment in PPP projects. For this study, 5 risk assessment criteria and 10 types of risk used in Iranian highway PPP projects were selected. Four suitability and applicability tests were used to measure agreement between the rankings derived from the MADM methods. Final results show that all techniques had approximately the same rankings of risk assessment, with the SWARA, COPRAS, and EDAS methods performing slightly better. The findings of this study will help the parties in PPP and construction projects to select the best risk assessment method.

Determination of Significant Risk Threshold of Upstream Pipelines

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Lu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Risk Threshold ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Score Index

The pipeline risk assessment has been part of the integrity management in the industry in today’s environment of increasing regulatory and public oversight. One of the widely used risk assessment method is the score index method. This method has been used for more than two decades and is widely accepted in the pipeline industry. The input data is relatively easy to acquire. The method provides details of mitigation options and relative risk values. However, this method does not provide the simple decision making process. In risk management, it is always the question to choose the most cost effective mitigation option to use limited resources. On the basis of score index risk assessment method, a method to correlate the probability of failure score with actual failure probability, and leak impact factor score with actual failure consequence in monetary units has been developed. This method applies the monetarily calibrated consequence factor to the probability of failure to obtain a normalized and calibrated risk in monetary unit. By comparing the cost of an estimated mitigation program, the decision can be made. Recent regulations in Canada require that risk assessment must have a method to determine the significant risk threshold. Even though some industrial standards have some recommended methods or benchmark data for failure probability, there is no published method to determine the threshold of high risk. Some pipeline companies have the in-house personnel to develop an advanced method to meet regulation requirement. However, many pipeline companies need to have a practical and economical method to determine the significant risk threshold to meet regulation requirement, and to effectively allocate resources. This paper develops a method to determine the significant risk threshold that can be used as a decision-making criterion in pipeline risk management. This process is practical for industrial application, especially for upstream companies where operators have limited resources for advanced risk assessment. A case study is presented using this method based on upstream pipelines.

Storm surge risk assessment method for a coastal county in China: case study of Jinshan District, Shanghai

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 627-640 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shi Xianwu ◽  
Qiu Jufei ◽  
Chen Bingrui ◽  
Zhang Xiaojie ◽  
Guo Haoshuang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Coastal County

scholarly journals A Methodology for Harmonizing Safety and Health Scales in Occupational Risk Assessment

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4849
Author(s):  
Zuzhen Ji ◽  
Dirk Pons ◽  
John Pearse
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Public Health Perspective ◽  
Chronic Health ◽  
Risk Assessment Method

Successful implementation of Health and Safety (H&S) systems requires an effective mechanism to assess risk. Existing methods focus primarily on measuring the safety aspect; the risk of an accident is determined based on the product of severity of consequence and likelihood of the incident arising. The health component, i.e., chronic harm, is more difficult to assess. Partially, this is due to both consequences and the likelihood of health issues, which may be indeterminate. There is a need to develop a quantitative risk measurement for H&S risk management and with better representation for chronic health issues. The present paper has approached this from a different direction, by adopting a public health perspective of quality of life. We have then changed the risk assessment process to accommodate this. This was then applied to a case study. The case study showed that merely including the chronic harm scales appeared to be sufficient to elicit a more detailed consideration of hazards for chronic harm. This suggests that people are not insensitive to chronic harm hazards, but benefit from having a framework in which to communicate them. A method has been devised to harmonize safety and harm risk assessments. The result was a comprehensive risk assessment method with consideration of safety accidents and chronic health issues. This has the potential to benefit industry by making chronic harm more visible and hence more preventable.

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