Research on Evolutionary Game of Collaborative Innovation in Supply Chain under Digitization Background

The development of digital technology has been rapidly pushing forward collaborative innovation in supply chain. This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of information sharing, resource integration, and trustworthiness among the enterprises in supply chain to collaborative innovation under the digitization background and builds the model of dynamic evolutionary game in which enterprises in supply chain participate collaborative innovation, and then, through the methods of model solution analysis and numerical simulation the following concrete conclusions are reached: the increase of data sharing profit coefficient, resource integration coefficient, and trustworthiness causes the increase of the probability that an enterprise selects to participate collaborative innovation in supply chain, and the increase of data sharing cost, security risk coefficient, and free rider income causes the decrease of the probability that an enterprise selects to participate collaborative innovation in supply chain; meanwhile, the increase of all the coefficients makes the velocity with which decision-making approaches to the direction toward decision higher and higher, and when the core enterprises participate the game, they can drive the common enterprises make decision more rapidly; and for the probability that an enterprise selects to participate collaborative innovation in supply chain, data sharing profit coefficient, data sharing cost coefficient, security risk coefficient, and free rider income have threshold values. These conclusions play active roles in leading enterprises to attach importance to digitization construction and actively participate collaborative innovation in supply chain.

An Improved Failure Risk Assessment Method for Bilge System of the Large Luxury Cruise Ship under Fire Accident Conditions

This paper develops an improved failure risk assessment method and discusses the risk control measures for a large luxury cruise ship’s bilge system under fire accident conditions. The proposed method incorporates an expert weight calculation model and a risk coefficient calculation model. The expert weight calculation model considers the differences in experts’ expertise levels (i.e., qualification level, decision-making capacity, and decision-making preference). Further, the method integrates the evaluations resulting from fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and extended fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) of different experts. The risk coefficient (RC) calculation model utilizes a three-dimensional continuous matrix, serving to determine the risk factors’ ratings. The influences of the expert weight and RC calculation models on the proposed method’s performance are studied through a sensitivity analysis. The work demonstrates that the proposed method minimizes the issues encountered when using conventional methods for determining risk ratings. Finally, the results of an empirical study comprising ten experts evaluating the VISTA cruise ship’s bilge system prove the applicability of the proposed method and offer practical design guidelines to meet the regulations for Safe Return to Port (SRtP).

Estimating of radiation risks of malignant neoplasms among Russian Chernobyl cleanup workers

The paper considers radiation risks of solid cancer incidence and mortality, as well as risk of leu-kemia incidence (other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia) among Russian Chernobyl cleanup workers (liquidators). The study of the cohort of liquidators carried out at the National Radiation Epidemiological Registry (NRER) was based on the follow-up data collected from 1992 over 2019. The size of the Chernobyl cleanup workers cohort exceeded 65 thousand people, their av-erage age at the time of entering the exclusion zone was 34 years, the average external gamma radiation dose received by liquidators during their cleanup work was about 0.133 Gy. Radiation-induced risks of solid cancer incidence and mortality in the study cohort were statistically signifi-cant, the risk magnitude rose with increasing the follow-up length. For the maximum follow-up period, from 1992 over 2019, the excess relative risk coefficient for solid cancer incidence was ERR/Gy=0.62, 95% CI (0.29; 0.98), and excess relative risk coefficient for solid cancer mortality was ERR/Gy=0.74, 95% CI (0.32; 1.22), the estimated coefficients were in good agreement with similar coefficients calcu-lated for the Russian liquidators with the use of ICRP radiation risk models. Non-parametric esti-mates of relative radiation risk within the same dose intervals for solid cancers and for leukemias in the cohort of liquidators were statistically significant for radiation doses above 0.150 Gy. For radiation doses below 0,150 Гр the linear non-threshold model is conservative, i.e. there was ev-idence for statistically significant radiation risk of leukemia incidence among liquidators during the first 11 years after the accident, from 1986 over 1997, ERR/Gy=4.41, 95% CI (0.24; 14.23). In later years, until 2018 there was no evidence of radiation-related risk of leukemia incidence. Out-comes of future studies will impact on optimization of radiological protection, development of reference levels for Russian general public exposure and improvement of the system for delivery of targeted medical care to people exposed to radiation.

Investigation of anxiety levels of 1637 healthcare workers during the epidemic of COVID-19

Objective This study aimed to investigate the anxiety levels of healthcare workers and to provide guidance on potential accurate social and psychological interventions for healthcare workers during the epidemic of COVID-19 in Zhejiang Province, China. Methods Healthcare workers from five hospitals in Zhejiang Province were randomly selected into this study. Zung Self-Assessment Scale for Anxiety (SAS) was used to evaluate the anxiety status of the included 1637 healthcare workers. Results The total anxiety score of healthcare workers in Zhejiang Province was 30.85 ± 6.89. The univariate analysis showed that the anxiety level of healthcare workers was related to gender, education, occupation, physical condition, job risk coefficient, and with family members on the first-line combating COVID-19 (P <0.05). The multivariate analysis showed that physical condition and job risk coefficient were predictors of anxiety levels of healthcare workers. Conclusions During the epidemic of COVID-19, 1637 healthcare workers generally had an increased tendency to have anxiety. Individualized assessment of the anxiety level of healthcare workers should be provided, and different interventions should be given based on the evaluation results.

RISKS AND THREATS TO ENSURING FOOD SECURITY OF UKRAINE: METHODOLOGICAL FOUNDATIONS AND PRACTICAL EVALUATION

The article provides substantiation to the fact that ensuring food security of the state is an important component of its socioeconomic policy and a key indicator of the effectiveness of the national strategy in the local and global context. It has been proved that identification of risks and threats to food security in a timely manner makes it possible to assess the current trends of its main indicators and to further forecast them in a rapidly changing market environment. It has been identified and methodically supported that the system of risks and threats to food security is complementary related to the possibility of negative changes in its level, because the more likely the possibility of adverse changes, the higher the level of risk. It has been proved that the process of identifying food security risks should be based on the results of the analysis of the factors that cause them. Methodological steps in the context of risk assessment of the country in terms of the loss of food security have been identified: 1) systematization of food security indicators from the standpoint of risk management; 2) identification of all factors/threats that may cause adverse changes in indicators; 3) assessment of the possibility/probability of negative changes in food security indicators due to each of the identified factors/threats. The system of risks is determined from the standpoint of taking into account the sphere of formation and realization of resource potential, the sphere of food production, and the sphere of food distribution and consumption. A methodological approach to the calculation of the risk of negative fluctuations of food security indicators in the context of estimating the corresponding coefficients of semi-variation has been proposed. Strategically important types of agricultural products have been selected for the study, namely grain crops and legumes, sunflower, vegetables, meat and milk. In general, the calculations have shown an increased risk of negative fluctuations in the affordability of domestic food products against the background of intensification of internal and external threats to food security of Ukraine. The integrated risk coefficient for agriculture at large is 14.03 (the risk coefficient of crop production is 15.37, for animal husbandry 7.04).

Risk Evaluation in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Based on D Numbers Theory

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a useful technology for identifying the potential faults or errors in system, and simultaneously preventing them from occurring. In FMEA, risk evaluation is a vital procedure. Many methods are proposed to address this issue but they have some deficiencies, such as the complex calculation and two adjacent evaluation ratings being considered to be mutually exclusive. Aiming at these problems, in this paper, A novel method to risk evaluation based on D numbers theory is proposed. In the proposed method, for one thing, the assessments of each failure mode are aggregated through D numbers theory. For another, the combination usage of risk priority number (RPN) and the risk coefficient newly defined not only achieve less computation complexity compared with other methods, but also overcome the shortcomings of classical RPN. Furthermore, a numerical example is illustrated to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.

Risk management in perishable food distribution operations

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to predict or even control the food safety risks during the distribution of perishable foods. Considering the food safety risks, the distribution route of perishable foods is reasonably arranged to further improve the efficiency of cold chain distribution and reduce distribution costs. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses the microbial growth model to identify a food safety risk coefficient to describe the characteristics of food safety risks that increase over time. On this basis, with the goal of minimizing distribution costs, the authors establish a vehicle routing problem with a food safety Risk coefficient and a Time Window (VRPRTW) for perishable foods. Then, the Weight-Parameter Whale Optimization Algorithm (WPWOA) which introduces inertia weight and dynamic parameter into the native whale optimization algorithm is designed for solving this model. Moreover, benchmark functions and numerical simulation are used to test the performance of the WPWOA. Findings Based on numerical simulation, the authors obtained the distribution path of perishable foods under the restriction of food safety risks. Moreover, the WPWOA can significantly outperform other algorithms on most of the benchmark functions, and it is faster and more robust than the native WOA and avoids premature convergence. Originality/value This study indicates that the established model and the algorithm are effective to control the risk of perishable food in distribution process. Besides, it extends the existing literature and can provide a theoretical basis and practical guidance for the vehicle routing problem of perishable foods.