Dataset-Based Assessment of Heavy Metals Pollution in Taihu Lake Fish and Their Health Risk

The ecological risks and health hazards of heavy metals pollution in Taihu Lake have received widespread concern. This study has developed a nationwide dataset on pollutant loads in species, and the dataset records 55,297 data from 310 articles, covering 778 species and 537 pollutants. In this paper, we extract and systematically integrate data on heavy metals concentrations in Taihu fish from the dataset. The Pi (single pollution index) and MPI (metal pollution index) models were used to assess the level of contamination in fish and the THQ (target hazard quotient) and ILCR (incremental lifetime cancer risk) models were used to assess the health hazards of fish consumption. The contamination levels varied in a feeding habit and living habit dependent manner. The risk of non-cancer health is the highest in omnivorous fish, then in carnivorous fish and herbivorous fish. ILCR model predicted that the values of As and Cd in omnivorous fish for children exceeded the risk threshold limits set by the EPA, and the ILCR values of As in omnivorous fish and Cd in carnivorous fish for adults also exceeded the risk threshold limits. In all, this study provided a comprehensive understanding of the risk of heavy metals in Taihu.

Anti-Xa Activity of Enoxaparin for Prevention of Venous Thromboembolism in Severe Nephrotic Syndrome—A Single Center Prospective Study

Severe nephrotic syndrome (NS) is associated with high risk of venous thromboembolic events (VTE), as well as presumably altered heparin pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. Although prophylactic anticoagulation is recommended, the optimal dose is not established. The aim of the study was to test two co-primary hypotheses: of reduced enoxaparin effectiveness and of the need for dose-adjustment in NS. Forty two nephrotic patients with serum albumin ≤2.5 g/dL were alternately assigned to a standard fixed-dose of enoxaparin (NS-FD: 40 mg/day) or ideal body weight (IBW)-based adjusted-dose (NS-AD: 1 mg/kg/day). Twenty one matched non-proteinuric individuals (C-FD) also received fixed-dose. Co-primary outcomes were: the achievement of low- and high-VTE risk threshold of antifactor-Xa activity (anti-FXa) defined as 0.2 IU/mL and 0.3 IU/mL, respectively. Low-VTE-risk threshold was achieved less often in NS-FD than C-FD group (91 vs. 62%, p = 0.024), while the high-VTE-risk threshold more often in NS-AD than in NS-FD group (90 vs. 38%, p < 0.001). Two VTE were observed in NS during 12 months of follow-up (incidence: 5.88%/year). In both cases anti-FXa were 0.3 IU/mL implying the use of anti-FXa >0.3 IU/mL as a target for dose-adjustment logistic regression models. We determined the optimal dose/IBW cut-off value at 0.8 mg/kg and further developed bivariate model (termed the DoAT model) including dose/IBW and antithrombin activity that improved the diagnostic accuracy (AUC 0.85 ± 0.06 vs. AUC 0.75 ± 0.08). Enoxaparin efficacy is reduced in severe NS and the dose should be adjusted to ideal body weight to achieve target anti-FXa activity.

A Prediction Model for Pediatric Radiographic Pneumonia

BACKGROUND: Chest radiographs (CXRs) are frequently used in the diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We sought to construct a predictive model for radiographic CAP based on clinical features to decrease CXR use. METHODS: We performed a single-center prospective study of patients 3 months to 18 years of age with signs of lower respiratory infection who received a CXR for suspicion of CAP. We used penalized multivariable logistic regression to develop a full model and bootstrapped backward selection models to develop a parsimonious reduced model. We evaluated model performance at different thresholds of predicted risk. RESULTS: Radiographic CAP was identified in 253 (22.2%) of 1142 patients. In multivariable analysis, increasing age, prolonged fever duration, tachypnea, and focal decreased breath sounds were positively associated with CAP. Rhinorrhea and wheezing were negatively associated with CAP. The bootstrapped reduced model retained 3 variables: age, fever duration, and decreased breath sounds. The area under the receiver operating characteristic for the reduced model was 0.80 (95% confidence interval: 0.77–0.84). Of 229 children with a predicted risk of &lt;4%, 13 (5.7%) had radiographic CAP (sensitivity of 94.9% at a 4% risk threshold). Conversely, of 229 children with a predicted risk of &gt;39%, 140 (61.1%) had CAP (specificity of 90% at a 39% risk threshold). CONCLUSIONS: A predictive model including age, fever duration, and decreased breath sounds has excellent discrimination for radiographic CAP. After external validation, this model may facilitate decisions around CXR or antibiotic use in CAP.

Factors affecting statin uptake among people living with HIV: primary care provider perspectives

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among people living with HIV (PLWH), but statin therapy, safe and effective for PLWH, is under-prescribed. This study examined clinic leadership and provider perceptions of factors associated with statin prescribing for PLWH receiving care in eight community health clinics across Los Angeles, California. Methods We conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with clinic leadership and providers across community health clinics participating in a larger study (INSPIRE) aimed at improving statin prescribing through education and feedback. Clinics included federally qualified health centers (N = 5), community clinics (N = 1) and county-run ambulatory care clinics (N = 2). Leadership and providers enrolled in INSPIRE (N = 39) were invited to participate in an interview. We used the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) to structure our interview guide and analysis. We used standard qualitative content analysis methods to identify themes within CFIR categories; we also assessed current CVD risk assessment and statin-prescribing practices. Results Participants were clinic leaders (n = 6), primary care physicians with and without an HIV specialization (N = 6, N = 6, respectively), infectious diseases specialists (N = 12), nurse practitioners, physician assistants and registered nurses (N = 7). Ninety-five percent of providers from INSPIRE participated in an interview. We found that CVD risk assessment for PLWH is standard practice but that there is variation in risk assessment practices and that providers are unsure whether or how to adjust the risk threshold to account for HIV. Time, clinic and patient priorities impede ability to conduct CVD risk assessment with PLWH. Conclusions Providers desire more data and standard practice guidance on prescribing statins for PLWH, including estimates of the effect of HIV on CVD, how to adjust the CVD risk threshold to account for HIV, which statins are best for people on antiretroviral therapy and on shared decision-making around prescribing statins to PLWH. While CVD risk assessment and statin prescribing fits within the mission and workflow of primary care, clinics may need to emphasize CVD risk assessment and statins as priorities in order to improve uptake.

Recalibration Methods for Improved Clinical Utility of Risk Scores

Background An established risk model may demonstrate miscalibration, meaning predicted risks do not accurately capture event rates. In some instances, investigators can identify and address the cause of miscalibration. In other circumstances, it may be appropriate to recalibrate the risk model. Existing recalibration methods do not account for settings in which the risk score will be used for risk-based clinical decision making. Methods We propose 2 new methods for risk model recalibration when the intended purpose of the risk model is to prescribe an intervention to high-risk individuals. Our measure of risk model clinical utility is standardized net benefit. The first method is a weighted strategy that prioritizes good calibration at or around the critical risk threshold. The second method uses constrained optimization to produce a recalibrated risk model with maximum possible net benefit, thereby prioritizing good calibration around the critical risk threshold. We also propose a graphical tool for assessing the potential for recalibration to improve the net benefit of a risk model. We illustrate these methods by recalibrating the American College of Cardiology (ACC)–American Heart Association (AHA) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score within the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort. Results New methods are implemented in the R package ClinicalUtilityRecal. Recalibrating the ACC-AHA-ASCVD risk score for a MESA subcohort results in higher estimated net benefit using the proposed methods compared with existing methods, with improved calibration in the most clinically impactful regions of risk. Conclusion The proposed methods target good calibration for critical risks and can improve the net benefit of a risk model. We recommend constrained optimization when the risk model net benefit is paramount. The weighted approach can be considered when good calibration over an interval of risks is important.

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease thresholds for statin initiation among people living with HIV in Thailand: A cost-effectiveness analysis

Background People living with HIV (PLHIV) have an elevated risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) compared to their uninfected peers. Expanding statin use may help alleviate this burden. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of reducing the recommend statin initiation threshold for primary ASCVD prevention among PLHIV in Thailand. Methods Our decision analytic microsimulation model randomly selected (with replacement) individuals from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (data collected between 1/January/2013 and 1/September/2019). Direct medical costs and quality-adjusted life-years were assigned in annual cycles over a lifetime horizon and discounted at 3% per year. We assumed the Thai healthcare sector perspective. The study population included PLHIV aged 35–75 years, without ASCVD, and receiving antiretroviral therapy. Statin initiation thresholds evaluated were 10-year ASCVD risk ≥10% (control), ≥7.5% and ≥5%. Results A statin initiation threshold of ASCVD risk ≥7.5% resulted in accumulation of 0.015 additional quality-adjusted life-years compared with an ASCVD risk threshold ≥10%, at an extra cost of 3,539 Baht ($US113), giving an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 239,000 Baht ($US7,670)/quality-adjusted life-year gained. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing ASCVD risk ≥5% to ≥7.5% was 349,000 Baht ($US11,200)/quality-adjusted life-year gained. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 160,000 Baht ($US5,135)/quality-adjusted life-year gained, a 30.8% reduction in the average cost of low/moderate statin therapy led to the ASCVD risk threshold ≥7.5% becoming cost-effective compared with current practice. Conclusions Reducing the recommended 10-year ASCVD risk threshold for statin initiation among PLHIV in Thailand would not currently be cost-effective. However, a lower threshold could become cost-effective with greater preference for cheaper statins.

Increasing the low-risk threshold for patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding during the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective, multicentre feasibility study

ObjectiveDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, we extended the low-risk threshold for patients not requiring inpatient endoscopy for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) from Glasgow Blatchford Score (GBS) 0–1 to GBS 0–3. We studied the safety and efficacy of this change.MethodsBetween 1 April 2020 and 30 June 2020 we prospectively collected data on consecutive unselected patients with UGIB at five large Scottish hospitals. Primary outcomes were length of stay, 30-day mortality and rebleeding. We compared the results with prospective prepandemic descriptive data.Results397 patients were included, and 284 index endoscopies were performed. 26.4% of patients had endoscopic intervention at index endoscopy. 30-day all-cause mortality was 13.1% (53/397), and 33.3% (23/69) for pre-existing inpatients. Bleeding-related mortality was 5% (20/397). 30-day rebleeding rate was 6.3% (25/397). 84 patients had GBS 0–3, of whom 19 underwent inpatient endoscopy, 0 had rebleeding and 2 died. Compared with prepandemic data in three centres, there was a fall in mean number of UGIB presentations per week (19 vs 27.8; p=0.004), higher mean GBS (8.3 vs 6.5; p<0.001) with fewer GBS 0–3 presentations (21.5% vs 33.3%; p=0.003) and higher all-cause mortality (12.2% vs 6.8%; p=0.02). Predictors of mortality were cirrhosis, pre-existing inpatient status, age >70 and confirmed COVID-19. 14 patients were COVID-19 positive, 5 died but none from UGIB.ConclusionDuring the pandemic when services were under severe pressure, extending the low-risk threshold for UGIB inpatient endoscopy to GBS 0–3 appears safe. The higher mortality of patients with UGIB during the pandemic is likely due to presentation of a fewer low-risk patients.

The Risk Threshold for Hemoglobin A1c Associated With Albuminuria: A Population-Based Study in China

BackgroundDiabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a kind of common microvascular complication of diabetes. This study aims to explore the possible links between blood sugar level and albuminuria, providing the exact cut point of the “risk threshold” for blood glucose with DKD.MethodsThe relationship between blood glucose and albuminuria was modeled using linear and logistic regression in the REACTION study cohorts (N= 8932). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by logistic regression model. Two-slope linear regression was used to simulate associations between blood glucose and ACR.ResultsWe found that the increase in ACR was accompanied by increased HbA1c, with a turning point at 5.5%. The positive correlation remained highly significant (P&lt;0.001) when adjusted for age, sex, marital status, education, smoking status, drinking status, BMI, waistline, SBP and DBP. In subgroup analyses including gender, obesity, hypertension, and smoking habits, the relationship was significant and stable.ConclusionsWe determined a risk threshold for HbA1c associated with albuminuria in a Chinese population over the age of 40. HbA1c ≥ 5.5% was positively and independently associated with ACR. These results suggest the necessity of early blood glucose control and renal function screening for DKD in at-risk populations.