scholarly journals A Sustainable Early Warning System Using Rolling Forecasts Based on ANN and Golden Ratio Optimization Methods to Accurately Predict Real-Time Water Levels and Flash Flood

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (13) ◽  
pp. 4598
Author(s):  
Feras Alasali ◽  
Rula Tawalbeh ◽  
Zahra Ghanem ◽  
Fatima Mohammad ◽  
Mohammad Alghazzawi
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Golden Ratio ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Ratio Optimization

Remote monitoring sensor systems play a significant role in the evaluation and minimization of natural disasters and risk. This article presents a sustainable and real-time early warning system of sensors employed in flash flood prediction by using a rolling forecast model based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Golden Ratio Optimization (GROM) methods. This Early Flood Warning System (EFWS) aims to support decision makers by providing reliable and accurate information and warning about any possible flood events within an efficient lead-time to reduce any damages due to flash floods. In this work, to improve the performance of the EFWS, an ANN forecast model based on a new optimization method, GROM, is developed and compared to the traditional ANN model. Furthermore, due to the lack of literature regarding the optimal ANN structural model for forecasting the flash flood, this paper is one of the first extensive investigations into the impact of using different exogenous variables and parameters on the ANN structure. The effect of using a rolling forecast model compared to fixed model on the accuracy of the forecasts is investigated as well. The results indicate that the rolling ANN forecast model based on GROM successfully improved the model accuracy by 40% compared to the traditional ANN model and by 93.5% compared to the fixed forecast model.

scholarly journals Flash Flood Early Warning System in Colima, Mexico

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (18) ◽  
pp. 5231
Author(s):  
José Ibarreche ◽  
Raúl Aquino ◽  
R. M. Edwards ◽  
Víctor Rangel ◽  
Ismael Pérez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Monitoring Stations

This paper presents a system of sensors used in flash flood prediction that offers critical real-time information used to provide early warnings that can provide the minutes needed for persons to evacuate before imminent events. Flooding is one of the most serious natural disasters humans confront in terms of loss of life and results in long-term effects, which often have severely adverse social consequences. However, flash floods are potentially more dangerous to life because there is often little or no forewarning of the impending disaster. The Emergency Water Information Network (EWIN) offers a solution that integrates an early warning system, notifications, and real-time monitoring of flash flood risks. The platform has been implemented in Colima, Mexico covering the Colima and Villa de Alvarez metropolitan area. This platform consists of eight fixed riverside hydrological monitoring stations, eight meteorological stations, nomadic mobile monitoring stations called “drifters” used in the flow, and a sniffer with data muling capability. The results show that this platform effectively compiles and forwards information to decision-makers, government officials, and the general public, potentially providing valuable minutes for people to evacuate dangerous areas.

scholarly journals Methodology for Developing Hydrological Models Based on an Artificial Neural Network to Establish an Early Warning System in Small Catchments

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivana Sušanj ◽  
Nevenka Ožanić ◽  
Ivan Marović
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Data Value ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Artificial Neural

In some situations, there is no possibility of hazard mitigation, especially if the hazard is induced by water. Thus, it is important to prevent consequences via an early warning system (EWS) to announce the possible occurrence of a hazard. The aim and objective of this paper are to investigate the possibility of implementing an EWS in a small-scale catchment and to develop a methodology for developing a hydrological prediction model based on an artificial neural network (ANN) as an essential part of the EWS. The methodology is implemented in the case study of the Slani Potok catchment, which is historically recognized as a hazard-prone area, by establishing continuous monitoring of meteorological and hydrological parameters to collect data for the training, validation, and evaluation of the prediction capabilities of the ANN model. The model is validated and evaluated by visual and common calculation approaches and a new evaluation for the assessment. This new evaluation is proposed based on the separation of the observed data into classes based on the mean data value and the percentages of classes above or below the mean data value as well as on the performance of the mean absolute error.

A Reliability-Based Early Warning System for Real-Time Monitoring on RC Buildings

2012 ◽  
Vol 446-449 ◽  
pp. 3422-3427
Author(s):  
Wang Sheng Liu ◽  
Ming Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Warning System ◽  
State Function ◽  
Real Time Monitoring ◽  
Rc Buildings ◽  
Load Effect

Today there is an urgent need for effective monitoring whether for old buildings or new ones. While conventional early warning system for real-time monitoring is based on safety factor, this paper proposes a new reliability-based framework to monitor the safety of RC buildings probabilistically. The framework includes modeling resistance, predicting probability distribution of load effect, calculating reliability and setting reliability index threshold. The in-situ test data enables to update the resistance model through a Bayesian process. Meanwhile, the observed monitoring data predicts the probability distribution of load effect. FORM is used to calculate the reliability because the limit state function for real-time monitoring is linear and simple. This study shows that the reliability-based early warning system is of more scientific sense in quantifying the safety and may be applied to many engineering fields.

scholarly journals A review of advances in China’s flash flood early-warning system

2018 ◽  
Vol 92 (2) ◽  
pp. 619-634 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changjun Liu ◽  
Liang Guo ◽  
Lei Ye ◽  
Shunfu Zhang ◽  
Yanzeng Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Warning System

scholarly journals Design of Early Warning System Based on Wireless Sensor Network

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (01) ◽  
pp. 66
Author(s):  
Gan Bo ◽  
Jin Shan
Keyword(s):  
Data Acquisition ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Monitoring System ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Landslide Monitoring ◽  
Remote Transmission ◽  
Sensor Data Acquisition

In order to solve the shortcomings of the landslide monitoring technology method, a set of landslides monitoring and early warning system is designed. It can achieve real-time sensor data acquisition, remote transmission and query display. In addition, aiming at the harsh environment of landslide monitoring and the performance requirements of the monitoring system, an improved minimum hop routing protocol is proposed. It can reduce network energy consumption, enhance network robustness, and improve node layout and networking flexibility. In order to realize the remote transmission of data, GPRS wireless communication is used to transmit monitoring data. Combined with remote monitoring center, real-time data display, query, preservation and landslide warning and prediction are realized. The results show that the sensor data acquisition system is accurate, the system is stable, and the node network is flexible. Therefore, the monitoring system has a good use value.

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