scholarly journals Regenerative Democracy for Envisioning and Fostering Flourishing Societies

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5808
Author(s):  
Fabricio Casarejos ◽  
Carlos Rufin ◽  
Ivan Engel
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Empirical Correlations ◽  
Global Democracy ◽  
Societal Needs ◽  
Patterns Of Behavior ◽  
Increasing Risk ◽  
Democratic Stability ◽  
Synergistic Relationships

The main objective of this article is to propose a new concept of Regenerative Democracy for envisioning and fostering flourishing societies. In pursuing this goal, this study is structured in three research strands, as follows: (i) the proposition of a cohesive set of indices for assessing global democracy and its historical crisis, stability, and transitioning regimes; (ii) an evaluation of empirical correlations and interdependencies between global sustainability and democracy; and (iii) the proposition of a new concept of Regenerative Democracy and its respective system dynamics modeling archetype for portraying societal transitions and their respective patterns of behavior over time. The overall results and discussion of this study indicate an empirical trend of democratic instability, comprising a decline in quality distribution among democratic states and an increasing risk of socio-ecological degeneration. These results also reveal a highly interdependent relationship between historical achievements of essential societal needs and global democratic stability and consolidation. Finally, flourishing societies relies on social equity, political participation, intergenerational justice and solidarity, long-term thinking, and synergistic relationships between societies and Earth’s life-giving systems.

scholarly journals System Dynamics Modeling for Evaluating Regional Hydrologic and Economic Effects of Irrigation Efficiency Policy

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Yining Bai ◽  
Saeed P. Langarudi ◽  
Alexander G. Fernald
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Irrigation Efficiency ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Hydrologic Connectivity ◽  
System Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Simulation Results

Exploring the dynamic mechanisms of coupled sociohydrologic systems is necessary to solve future water sustainability issues. This paper employs system dynamics modeling to determine hydrologic and economic implications of an irrigation efficiency (IE) policy (increased conveyance efficiency and field efficiency) in a coupled sociohydrologic system with three climate scenarios. Simulations are conducted within the lower Rio Grande region (LRG) of New Mexico for the years 1969 to 2099, including water, land, capital, and population modules. Quadrant analysis is utilized to compare the IE policy outcomes with the base case and to categorize results of simulations according to hydrologic and economic sustainability. The four categories are beneficial, unacceptable, unsustainable agricultural development, and unsustainable hydrology. Simulation results for the IE policy analyzed here fall into the categories of unsustainable agricultural development or unacceptable, suggesting there are long-term negative effects to regional economies in all scenarios with mixed results for hydrologic variables. IE policy can yield water for redistribution as increased unit water supply in the field produces more deep percolation; however, IE policy sacrifices regional connectivity. Specifically, simulation results show that the policy increases abundance by 4.7–74.5% and return flow by −3.0–9.9%. These positive results, however, come at the cost of decreased hydrologic connectivity (−31.5 to −25.1%) and negative economic impacts (−32.7 to −5.7%). Long-term net depletions in groundwater are also observed from loss of hydrologic connectivity and increased agricultural water demand from projections of increased consumptive use of crops. Adaptive water management that limits water use in drought years and replenishes groundwater in abundant years as well as economic incentives to offset the costs of infrastructure improvements will be necessary for the IE policy to result in sustainable agriculture and water resources.

scholarly journals Long-Term and Short-Term Prognostic Value of Circulating Soluble Suppression of Tumorigenicity-2 Concentration in Chronic Heart Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Cardiology ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Guoqi Dong ◽  
Hao Chen ◽  
Hongru Zhang ◽  
Yihuang Gu
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Chronic Heart Failure ◽  
Prognostic Value ◽  
Web Of Science ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Prisma Statement ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Increasing Risk

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> Soluble suppression of tumorigenicity-2 (sST2) has been considered as a prognostic factor of cardiovascular disease. However, the prognostic value of sST2 concentration in chronic heart failure remains to be summarized. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> We searched PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science for eligible studies up to January 1, 2020. Data extracted from articles and provided by authors were used in agreement with the PRISMA statement. The endpoints were all-cause mortality (ACM), cardiovascular mortality (CVM)/heart failure-related hospitalization (HFH), and all-cause mortality (ACM)/heart failure-related readmission (HFR). <b><i>Results:</i></b> A total of 11 studies with 5,121 participants were included in this analysis. Higher concentration of sST2 predicted the incidence of long-term ACM (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02–1.04), long-term ACM/HFR (HR: 1.42, CI: 1.27–1.59), and long-term CVM/HFH (HR: 2.25, CI: 1.82–2.79), regardless of short-term ACM/HFR (HR: 2.31, CI: 0.71–7.49). <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> Higher sST2 concentration at baseline is associated with increasing risk of long-term ACM, ACM/HFR, and CVM/HFH and can be a tool for the prognosis of chronic heart failure.

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