scholarly journals Recurrent Sequences Play for Survival Probability of Discrete Time Risk Model

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2111
Author(s):  
Andrius Grigutis ◽  
Jonas Šiaulys
Keyword(s):  
Discrete Time ◽  
Survival Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Limit Laws ◽  
Recurrent Sequences ◽  
Net Profit ◽  
Probability Calculation ◽  
Premium Income

In this article we investigate a homogeneous discrete time risk model with a generalized premium income rate which can be any natural number. We derive theorems and give numerical examples for finite and ultimate time survival probability calculation for the mentioned model. Our proved statements for ultimate time survival probability calculation, at some level, are similar to the previously known statements for non-homogeneous risk models, where required initial values of survival probability for some recurrent formulas are gathered by certain limit laws. We also give a simplified proof that a ruin is almost unavoidable with a neutral net profit condition and state several conjectures on a certain type of recurrent matrices non-singularity. All the research done can be interpreted as a possibility that symmetric or asymmetric random walk (r.w.) hits (or not) the line u+κt and that possibility is directly related to the expected value of r.w. generating random variable which might be equal, above or bellow κ.

scholarly journals Discrete-Time Risk Models with Claim Correlated Premiums in a Markovian Environment

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Dhiti Osatakul ◽  
Xueyuan Wu
Keyword(s):  
Discrete Time ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
External Environment ◽  
Ruin Probabilities ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Markovian Environment ◽  
Life Insurance Industry ◽  
Claim Frequency ◽  
The Impact

In this paper we consider a discrete-time risk model, which allows the premium to be adjusted according to claims experience. This model is inspired by the well-known bonus-malus system in the non-life insurance industry. Two strategies of adjusting periodic premiums are considered: aggregate claims or claim frequency. Recursive formulae are derived to compute the finite-time ruin probabilities, and Lundberg-type upper bounds are also derived to evaluate the ultimate-time ruin probabilities. In addition, we extend the risk model by considering an external Markovian environment in which the claims distributions are governed by an external Markov process so that the periodic premium adjustments vary when the external environment state changes. We then study the joint distribution of premium level and environment state at ruin given ruin occurs. Two numerical examples are provided at the end of this paper to illustrate the impact of the initial external environment state, the initial premium level and the initial surplus on the ruin probability.

scholarly journals Discrete-Time Risk Models Based on Time Series for Count Random Variables

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hélène Cossette ◽  
Etienne Marceau ◽  
Véronique Maume-Deschamps
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Serial Dependence ◽  
Bernoulli Process ◽  
Temporal Dependence ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Numerical Examples

AbstractIn this paper, we consider various specifications of the general discrete-time risk model in which a serial dependence structure is introduced between the claim numbers for each period. We consider risk models based on compound distributions assuming several examples of discrete variate time series as specific temporal dependence structures: Poisson MA(1) process, Poisson AR(1) process, Markov Bernoulli process and Markov regime-switching process. In these models, we derive expressions for a function that allow us to find the Lundberg coefficient. Specific cases for which an explicit expression can be found for the Lundberg coefficient are also presented. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate different topics discussed in the paper.

scholarly journals Ultimate Time Survival Probability in Three-Risk Discrete Time Risk Model

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrius Grigutis ◽  
Jonas Šiaulys
Keyword(s):  
Discrete Time ◽  
Survival Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Time Model ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Discrete Time Model ◽  
Survival Probabilities ◽  
Renewal Model ◽  
Recursive Formulas

In this paper, we prove recursive formulas for ultimate time survival probability when three random claims X , Y , Z in the discrete time risk model occur in a special way. Namely, we suppose that claim X occurs at each moment of time t ∈ { 1 , 2 , … } , claim Y additionally occurs at even moments of time t ∈ { 2 , 4 , … } and claim Z additionally occurs at every moment of time, which is a multiple of three t ∈ { 3 , 6 , … } . Under such assumptions, the model that is obtained is called the three-risk discrete time model. Such a model is a particular case of a nonhomogeneous risk renewal model. The sequence of claims has the form { X , X + Y , X + Z , X + Y , X , X + Y + Z , … } . Using the recursive formulas, algorithms were developed to calculate the exact values of survival probabilities for the three-risk discrete time model. The running of algorithms is illustrated via numerical examples.

scholarly journals The Asymptotics of Recovery Probability in the Dual Renewal Risk Model with Constant Interest and Debit Force

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Hao Wang ◽  
Lin Xu
Keyword(s):  
Asymptotic Behavior ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Continuous Time Model ◽  
Time Model ◽  
Discrete Time Model ◽  
Renewal Risk Model ◽  
Renewal Risk ◽  
Premium Income ◽  
Constant Interest

The asymptotic behavior of the recovery probability for the dual renewal risk model with constant interest and debit force is studied. By means the idea of Markov Skeleton method, we studied the times that the random premium incomes happened and transformed the continuous time model into a discrete time model. By investigating the fluctuations of this discrete time model, we obtained the asymptotic behavior when the random premium income belongs to a kind of heavy-tailed distributions.

scholarly journals Estimating Ruin Probability in an Insurance Risk Model with Stochastic Premium Income Based on the CFS Method

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 982
Author(s):  
Yujuan Huang ◽  
Jing Li ◽  
Hengyu Liu ◽  
Wenguang Yu
Keyword(s):  
Fourier Series ◽  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Expansion Method ◽  
Nonparametric Estimator ◽  
Insurance Risk ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Complex Fourier Series ◽  
Premium Income ◽  
Insurance Risk Model

This paper considers the estimation of ruin probability in an insurance risk model with stochastic premium income. We first show that the ruin probability can be approximated by the complex Fourier series (CFS) expansion method. Then, we construct a nonparametric estimator of the ruin probability and analyze its convergence. Numerical examples are also provided to show the efficiency of our method when the sample size is finite.

scholarly journals Random additions in urns of integers

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 335-346
Author(s):  
Mackenzie Simper
Keyword(s):  
Finite Group ◽  
Random Process ◽  
Uniform Distribution ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Urn Model ◽  
Infinite Type ◽  
The Mean ◽  
A Finite Group ◽  
Proof Of Convergence

AbstractConsider an urn containing balls labeled with integer values. Define a discrete-time random process by drawing two balls, one at a time and with replacement, and noting the labels. Add a new ball labeled with the sum of the two drawn labels. This model was introduced by Siegmund and Yakir (2005) Ann. Prob.33, 2036 for labels taking values in a finite group, in which case the distribution defined by the urn converges to the uniform distribution on the group. For the urn of integers, the main result of this paper is an exponential limit law. The mean of the exponential is a random variable with distribution depending on the starting configuration. This is a novel urn model which combines multi-drawing and an infinite type of balls. The proof of convergence uses the contraction method for recursive distributional equations.

scholarly journals Ruin problems in Markov-modulated risk models

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
David C.M. Dickson ◽  
Marjan Qazvini
Keyword(s):  
Continuous Time ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Numerical Algorithms ◽  
Binomial Model ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Time Of Ruin ◽  
Compound Binomial ◽  
Compound Binomial Model ◽  
Markov Modulated ◽  
The Time Of Ruin

AbstractChen et al. (2014), studied a discrete semi-Markov risk model that covers existing risk models such as the compound binomial model and the compound Markov binomial model. We consider their model and build numerical algorithms that provide approximations to the probability of ultimate ruin and the probability and severity of ruin in a continuous time two-state Markov-modulated risk model. We then study the finite time ruin probability for a discrete m-state model and show how we can approximate the density of the time of ruin in a continuous time Markov-modulated model with more than two states.

scholarly journals On a Class of Semi-Markov Risk Models Obtained as Classical Risk Models in a Markovian Environment

1984 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Marie Reinhard
Keyword(s):  
Risk Model ◽  
Risk Process ◽  
Ruin Probabilities ◽  
Sufficient Condition ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient Condition ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Markovian Environment ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
Natural Way ◽  
Quantities Of Interest

AbstractWe consider a risk model in which the claim inter-arrivals and amounts depend on a markovian environment process. Semi-Markov risk models are so introduced in a quite natural way. We derive some quantities of interest for the risk process and obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for the fairness of the risk (positive asymptotic non-ruin probabilities). These probabilities are explicitly calculated in a particular case (two possible states for the environment, exponential claim amounts distributions).

scholarly journals On Exact Solutions for Dividend Strategies of Threshold and Linear Barrier Type in a Sparre Andersen Model

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (02) ◽  
pp. 203-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hansjörg Albrecher ◽  
Jürgen Hartinger ◽  
Stefan Thonhauser
Keyword(s):  
Risk Model ◽  
Infinite Horizon ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Threshold Strategy ◽  
Sparre Andersen Model ◽  
Dividend Payments ◽  
Andersen Model ◽  
Linear Barrier ◽  
Barrier Type ◽  
Premium Income

For the classical Cramér-Lundberg risk model, a dividend strategy of threshold type has recently been suggested in the literature. This strategy consists of paying out part of the premium income as dividends to shareholders whenever the free surplus is above a given threshold level. In contrast to the well-known horizontal barrier strategy, the threshold strategy can lead to a positive infinite-horizon survival probability, with reduced profit in terms of dividend payments. In this paper we extend several of these results to a Sparre Andersen model with generalized Erlang(n)-distributed interclaim times. Furthermore, we compare the performance of the threshold strategy to a linear dividend barrier model. In particular, (partial) integro-differential equations for the corresponding ruin probabilities and expected discounted dividend payments are provided for both models and explicitly solved for n = 2 and exponentially distributed claim amounts. Finally, the explicit solutions are used to identify parameter sets for which one strategy outperforms the other and vice versa.

scholarly journals Dividend Moments in the Dual Risk Model: Exact and Approximate Approaches

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (02) ◽  
pp. 399-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric C.K. Cheung ◽  
Steve Drekic
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equations ◽  
Laplace Transform ◽  
Size Distribution ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Time Model ◽  
Jump Size ◽  
Time Of Ruin ◽  
The Time Of Ruin

In the classical compound Poisson risk model, it is assumed that a company (typically an insurance company) receives premium at a constant rate and pays incurred claims until ruin occurs. In contrast, for certain companies (typically those focusing on invention), it might be more appropriate to assume expenses are paid at a fixed rate and occasional random income is earned. In such cases, the surplus process of the company can be modelled as a dual of the classical compound Poisson model, as described in Avanzi et al. (2007). Assuming further that a barrier strategy is applied to such a model (i.e., any overshoot beyond a fixed level caused by an upward jump is paid out as a dividend until ruin occurs), we are able to derive integro-differential equations for the moments of the total discounted dividends as well as the Laplace transform of the time of ruin. These integro-differential equations can be solved explicitly assuming the jump size distribution has a rational Laplace transform. We also propose a discrete-time analogue of the continuous-time dual model and show that the corresponding quantities can be solved for explicitly leaving the discrete jump size distribution arbitrary. While the discrete-time model can be considered as a stand-alone model, it can also serve as an approximation to the continuous-time model. Finally, we consider a generalization of the so-called Dickson-Waters modification in optimal dividends problems by maximizing the difference between the expected value of discounted dividends and the present value of a fixed penalty applied at the time of ruin.

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