survival probability
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Author(s):  
Min Jung Koh ◽  
Mwanasha H Merrill ◽  
Min Ji Koh ◽  
Robert Stuver ◽  
Carolyn D Alonso ◽  
...  

There are no studies comparing the prognosis for mature T-cell lymphoma (TCL) in people with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) to people without HIV (PWoH) and to AIDS-defining B-cell lymphomas (A-BCL) in the modern antiretroviral therapy (ART) era. NA-ACCORD and COMPLETE are cohorts that enroll patients diagnosed with HIV and TCL, respectively. In our study 52, 64, 101, 500 and 246 PWH with histological confirmation of TCL, primary CNS, Burkitt's, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) respectively and 450 TCL without HIV were eligible for analysis. At the time of TCL diagnosis, Anaplastic large-cell lymphoma (ALCL) was the most common TCL subtype within PWH. While PWH with TCL diagnosed between 1996-2009, experienced a low 5-year survival probability at 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13, 0.41), we observed a marked improvement in their survival when diagnosed between 2010-2016 (0.69; 95% CI: 0.48, 1; p=0.04) in contrast to TCL among PWoH (0.45; 95% CI: 0.41, 0.51; p=0.53). Similarly, PWH with ALCL diagnosed between 1996-2009 were associated with a conspicuously inferior 5-year survival probability (0.17; 95% CI: 0.07, 0.42) and consistently lagged behind A-BCL subtypes such as Burkitt's (0.43; 95% CI:0.33, 0.57; p=0.09) and DLBCL (0.17; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.46; p=0.11) and behind HL (0.57; 95% CI: 0.50, 0.65; p <0.0001). Despite a small number, those diagnosed between 2010-2016, experienced a remarkable improvement in survival (0.67; 95% CI: 0.3, 1) in comparison to PWoH (0.76; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.87; p=0.58). Thus, our analysis confirms improved overall survival for aggressive B and T-cell malignancies among PWH in the last decade.


2022 ◽  
Vol 2022 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Dongqing Luan ◽  
Along Liu ◽  
Xiaoli Wang ◽  
Yanxi Xie ◽  
Zhong Wu

Disaster medical rescue in China mainly adopts the “on-site rescue” model. Whether the location of emergency temporary blood supply sites is reasonable or not directly affects the rescue efficiency. The paper studies the robust location-allocation for emergency temporary blood supply after disaster. First, the factors of several candidate sites were quantified by the entropy-based TOPSIS method, and 12 candidate blood supply sites with higher priority were selected according to the evaluation indicators. At the same time, the uncertainty of blood demand at each disaster site increased the difficulty of decision-making, and then, a robust location model (MIRP) was constructed with minimum cost with time window constraints. It is also constrained by the uncertain demand for blood in three scenarios. Second, the survival probability function was introduced, and the time window limit was given at the minimum cost to maximize the survival probability of the suffered people. Finally, the numerical example experiments demonstrate that the increase in demand uncertainty and survival probability cause the MIRP model to generate more costs. Compared with the three MIRP models, the MIRP-ellipsoid set model gained better robustness. Also, given the necessary restrictions on the time window, the cost can be reduced by about 13% with the highest survival probability. Decision-makers can select different combinations of uncertainty levels and demand disturbance ratios and necessary time constraints to obtain the optimal location-allocation solution according to risk preference and actual conditions.


2022 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 215013192110637
Author(s):  
Em Yunir ◽  
Canggih Dian Hidayah ◽  
Kuntjoro Harimurti ◽  
Ida Ayu Made Kshanti

Background: Diabetic foot is one of major complication in diabetes patients with unfavorable outcome. Survival study in outpatients is limited and factors related are inconsistent. Survival and its modifiable risk factors should be identified early since the foot at risk status to reduce amputation/mortality in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Objective: The aims of this study were to investigate survival probability for amputation or mortality, compare different ulcer risk classification, and figure out the relation of status of ulcer risk, age, gender, diabetes duration, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, HbA1C, and LDL with amputation or mortality. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study of 487 T2DM subjects who visited internal medicine outpatient clinic in Fatmawati General Hospital since January-December 2016. Status of ulcer risk and risk factors were extracted from medical record and lower-extremity amputation or mortality was observed in 3 years from baseline. Result: Three years overall survival is 85.7% (SE 0.17). Patients with high risk for foot ulcer have survival probability of 80.2% (SE 0.027), which is lower compared to non-high risk for foot ulcer with survival probability of 91.8% (SE 0.019). Patients with high risk for foot ulcer (aHR 2.386 [95% CI 1.356-4.20]; P = .003), aged ≥60 years old (aHR 2.051 [95% CI 1.173-3.585]; P = .012), and HbA1C ≥7% (aHR 2.022 [95% CI 1.067-3.830]; P = .031) were independently associated with amputation or mortality. Conclusion: T2DM patients with high risk for foot ulcer have lower survival probability and higher risk for amputation or mortality in 3 years compared to patients with non-high risk for foot ulcer. Status of ulcer risk, age ≥60 years, and HbA1C ≥7% were associated with amputation or mortality in 3 years observation.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi 凌意 Ling ◽  
Yu xuan Liu ◽  
Sai Wang ◽  
Meng-He Wu

Abstract The Large High Altitude Air Shower Observatory (LHAASO) has reported the measurement of photons with high energy up to 1.42 PeV from 12 gamma-ray sources. We are concerned with the implications of LHAASO data on the fate of Lorenz symmetry at such high energy level, thus we consider the interaction of the gamma ray with those photons in cosmic microwave background (CMB), and compute the optical depth, the mean free path as well as the survival probability for photons from all these gamma-ray sources. Employing the threshold value predicted by the standard special relativity, it is found that the lowest survival probability for observed gamma ray photons is about 0.60, which is a fairly high value and implies that abundant photons with energy above the threshold value may reach the Earth without Lorentz symmetry violation. We conclude that it is still far to argue that the Lorentz symmetry would be violated due to the present observations from LHAASO. Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. Article funded by SCOAP3 and published under licence by Chinese Physical Society and the Institute of High Energy Physics of the Chinese Academy of Science and the Institute of Modern Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and IOP Publishing Ltd.


Author(s):  
Mohamed Kayid ◽  
Lolwa Alshagrawi

Although the ordinary time-to-failure degradation-based model has been extensively used in practice, it also has its limitations. In this paper, we consider a time-to-failure degradation-based model recently proposed by Albabtain et al., where a limiting conditional survival probability entertains further stochastic relationships between the failure time and the degree of degradation. In the particular case where the limited survival probability is available for the proportional failure rate model, the model is developed using two well-known degradation paths, namely the additive degradation path and the multiplicative degradation path, each of which has a component of random variation. Preservation of various stochastic orders and aging properties of the random variation component in the model in the described setting is developed. To illustrate the model in the modified design, some examples of interest in reliability are presented.


2021 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-156
Author(s):  
Simon Sandoval ◽  
Eduardo Acuña ◽  
Jorge Cancino ◽  
Rafael Rubilar

Mortality was modelled for three species (Acacia melanoxylon, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Eucalyptus nitens) at three plantation densities (5000, 7500, and 10000 trees ha-1) in an trial of biomass production for purposes of dendroenergetic. One modelling based on individual tree level and two mortality modelling alternatives were evaluated: four survival probability equations and eight difference equations. The individual tree survival modelling considered a logistic model, is a linear combination of variables to individual tree at current time  and the previous time as estimator, being the main variables the variation of the competition index and the variation of basal area growth between the current growth period and the previous growth period. The survival probability alternative used state variables of the stand (age, dominant height, average square diameter) as predictors, whereas the difference equations were adjusted according to age-based changes only. The models to stand levels showed better result than individual tree models, and in general, the mortality models based on difference equations presented better indicators of precision and parsimony. The rate of relative mortality was constant, i.e., (dN/dE)/N, and varied between species, revealing greater mortality, consecutively, in E. nitens, A. melanoxylon, and E. camaldulensis. Although mortality tended to be higher at greater plantation densities, stand density did not significantly affect the parameters of the adjusted models. Highlights The mortality stand level models showed better results than the individual tree models for dendroenergetic crops, and in general, the mortality models based on difference equations presented better precision indicators and parsimony. The survival probability alternative involved state variables of the stand like age, dominant height, and average square diameter as predictors, while the difference equations were fitted according to age-based changes only. Mortality tended to be higher at greater plantation densities, however stand density did not significantly affect the parameters of the mortality equations.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharo Abdulrahman ◽  
Constantin Von See Mahm ◽  
Ranjdar Talabani ◽  
Darwn Abdulateef

Abstract Background/purpose How long do lithium disilicate restorations last before they fail? The aim of this study was to assess the success rate of four different types of restorations made from lithium disilicate. Materials and methods A total of 87,203 ceramic restorations, classified into four different types (inlay or onlay, veneers (Vs), single crowns (SCs), and fixed partial dentures (FPDs)), were used. All were made of lithium disilicate (IPS e.Max CAD) with Cerec Inlab CAD/CAM system (Sirona Dental Systems, Bensheim, Germany). They were reported by dentists and entered in the database of the private B&R Dental Center between March 2015 and June 2020 and assessed retrospectively up to a period of 5 years based on the following parameters: failure rate and cause of failures (ceramic fracture, debonding, marginal adaptation, color match, endodontic intervention, periodontal disease, and secondary caries). Failure distribution according to gender, arch, and teeth type was also evaluated. The time-dependent time-to-failure/complication and their differences were calculated in months according to the Kaplan Meier and log-rank tests. The Chi-squared test (p 0.05) was used to assess the variations in causes of failure rates between different restorations. Results Kaplan Meier test showed overall cumulative survival probability of lithium disilicate restorations for up to years was 85.08%. Inlay/onlay and Vs ceramic restorations showed highest cumulative survival probability (99.4%, 98.6, respectively). FPDs had the least cumulative survival probability (52.9%) which was significantly (P < 0.00001) higher than for other ceramic restorations using the log-rank test. Moreover, overall time-dependent time-to-failure/complication occurred after 52.373 months according to Kaplan–Meier (CI: lower bound: 51.875 months; upper bound: 52.871 months). Ceramic fracture in both FPDs and SCs (27.6% and 26.6%, respectively) and debonding in Vs (12.7%) were significant as the main reasons for failure (P = 0.000). The failure rate was significantly higher for the maxillary arch than the mandibular arch (P = 0.021). Fracture and marginal discrepancy were more frequent in the molar region (77.5% and 14.75%, respectively) and significantly higher here than in the anterior and premolar regions (P = 0.000). Conclusion The medium-term performance of lithium disilicate is ideal. Ceramic fracture was the most common cause of failure in SCs and FPDs. FPDs presented with the highest failure rate based on evaluation for up to 5 years.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (12) ◽  
pp. 123203
Author(s):  
Gaia Pozzoli ◽  
Benjamin De Bruyne

Abstract We consider one-dimensional discrete-time random walks (RWs) in the presence of finite size traps of length ℓ over which the RWs can jump. We study the survival probability of such RWs when the traps are periodically distributed and separated by a distance L. We obtain exact results for the mean first-passage time and the survival probability in the special case of a double-sided exponential jump distribution. While such RWs typically survive longer than if they could not leap over traps, their survival probability still decreases exponentially with the number of steps. The decay rate of the survival probability depends in a non-trivial way on the trap length ℓ and exhibits an interesting regime when ℓ → 0 as it tends to the ratio ℓ/L, which is reminiscent of strongly chaotic deterministic systems. We generalize our model to continuous-time RWs, where we introduce a power-law distributed waiting time before each jump. In this case, we find that the survival probability decays algebraically with an exponent that is independent of the trap length. Finally, we derive the diffusive limit of our model and show that, depending on the chosen scaling, we obtain either diffusion with uniform absorption, or diffusion with periodically distributed point absorbers.


BMC Cancer ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaotao Li ◽  
Shi Fu ◽  
Yinglong Huang ◽  
Ting Luan ◽  
Haifeng Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Bladder cancer (BC) is one of the most common malignancies and has a relatively poor outcome worldwide. In this study, we attempted to construct a novel metabolism-related gene (MRG) signature for predicting the survival probability of BC patients. Methods First, differentially expressed MRGs between BC and normal samples were identified and used to construct a protein-protein interaction (PPI) network and perform mutation analysis. Next, univariate Cox regression analysis was utilized to select prognostic genes, and multivariate Cox regression analysis was applied to establish an MRG signature for predicting the survival probability of BC patients. Moreover, Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were performed to evaluate the predictive capability of the MRG signature. Finally, a nomogram based on the MRG signature was established to better predict the survival of BC. Results In the present study, 27 differentially expressed MRGs were identified, most of which presented mutations in BC patients, and LRP1 showed the highest mutation rate. Next, an MRG signature, including MAOB, FASN and LRP1, was established by using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Furthermore, survival analysis indicated that BC patients in the high-risk group had a dramatically lower survival probability than those in the low-risk group. Finally, Cox regression analysis showed that the risk score was an independent prognostic factor, and a nomogram integrating age, pathological tumor stage and risk score was established and presented good predictive ability. Conclusion We successfully constructed a novel MRG signature to predict the prognosis of BC patients, which might contribute to the clinical treatment of BC.


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