A Cox model for gradually disappearing events

Innovations in medicine provide us longer and healthier life, leading lower mortality. Sooner rather than later, much greater longevity would be possible for us due to artificial intelligence advances in health care. Similarly, Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) in highly automated vehicles may reduce or even eventually eliminate accidents by perceiving dangerous situations, which would minimize the number of accidents and lead to fewer loss claims for insurance companies. To model the survivor function capturing greater longevity as well as the number of claims reflecting less accidents in the long run, in this paper, we study a Cox process whose intensity process is piecewise-constant and decreasing. We derive its ultimate distributional properties, such as the Laplace transform of intensity integral process, the probability generating function of point process, their associated moments and cumulants, and the probability of no more claims for a given time point. In general, this simple model may be applicable in many other areas for modeling the evolution of gradually disappearing events, such as corporate defaults, dividend payments, trade arrivals, employment of a certain job type (e.g., typists) in the labor market, and release of particles. In particular, we discuss some potential applications to insurance.

Stock options: do they influence dividend payments?

Purpose This study aims to investigate whether there is any influence of the option plan to purchase shares protected from dividends to determine the distribution of dividends in Brazilian companies. Design/methodology/approach The authors used a Tobit dynamic and regressive regression model because their sample has an index higher than 30% of companies that do not pay dividends. The sample includes companies that pay dividends or not and pay their executives with executive stock option plans and is composed of 1,990 observations from 356 companies from 2010 to 2016. Findings The results indicated that the presence of a dividend protection clause has a positive association with the distribution of dividends. The authors sought to clarify that companies with a stock option plan protected by the distribution of dividends face fewer restrictions on the distribution of dividends. The authors found that most companies still use only stock options to benefit middle-ranking positions and fit the plan in their remuneration policy. The monitoring of these plans lasts an average of seven years, and specific acquisition conditions are not established with their beneficiaries, who must remain in the company and observe performance metrics. Originality/value This study is relevant because the relationship between dividends and stock options has not yet been analyzed in Brazil, especially concerning a dividend-protected option plan, which is a relatively recent modality, even unknown to some companies.

THE EFFECT OF FINANCIAL POLICY ON THE PERFORMANCE OF INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES IN THE INSURANCE SUB-SECTOR IN INDONESIA

Companies with good profitability will have better abilities to fund their dividends and investments. Companies experiencing a lack of funding to fund dividend payments and fund investments can use external funding through leverage. The object of this study is the industrial company of the insurance sub-sector; the selection of this object is based on the idea that insurance as a financial product is supposed to give an assurance to its customers regarding the promised coverage. This study is purposed to examine and explain the effect of financial policy on the company and its performance. The analytical method used is Partial Least Square with purposive sampling technique. The sample used is insurance companies listed on the IDX during the 2017-2019 period. Variables used in this study regarding the effect of financial policies on a company's performance are investment opportunity set, dividend policy, capital structure, and firm value. Based on the analysis results, it is shown that the mediation of Capital Structure and Dividend Policy give a significant positive effect on a company's performance as reflected in the firm value obtained. Thus good financial policies can be used as a strategy to attract investors' interest. The results of this study are expected to benefit the company's leadership in optimizing the company's value through the established financial policies.

PENGARUH DIVERSITAS JENDER DAN UKURAN DEWAN TERHADAP DIVIDEND PAYOUT

The purpose of this research is to empirically prove how gender diversity and the size of the board have an impact on the dividends paid to investors in manufacturing companies. This research uses a descriptive quantitative approach. This research sample is secondary data from the annual report of manufacturing companies for the 2016-2019 period. The software used in this research is the eviews 10 program. This research provides the following results: (1) that the gender diversity of board members in manufacturing companies does not affect dividend payments; and (2) the size of the board of directors in manufacturing companies does not affect dividend payments/dividend payments in manufacturing companies. The implication of this research is to give advice to companies to recruit more board members to force companies to better protect and prioritize the interests of shareholders through cash disbursement in the form of dividends, so that they will be able to attract investors to invest. Contribute by increasing knowledge related to research on what things encourage dividend payments to investors. These factors include gender diversity and the size of the company's board members.Tujuan riset ini adalah membuktikan secara empiris bagaimana keragaman gender dan ukuran anggota dewan berdampak terhadap dividen yang dibayarkan untuk investor perusahaan manufaktur. Riset ini memakai metode deskriptif pendekatan kuantitatif. Sampel riset ini berupa data sekunder dari laporan tahunan perusahaan manufaktur periode 2016-2019. Perangkat lunak yang digunakan riset ini adalah program eviews 10. Riset ini memberikan hasil: (1) bahwa keragaman gender anggota dewan di perusahaan manufaktur tidak mempengaruhi pembayaran dividen; dan (2) ukuran dewan direksi pada perusahaan manufaktur tidak mempengaruhi pembayaran dividen/pembayaran dividen pada perusahaan manufaktur. Implikasi riset ini yaitu memberikan saran ke perusahaan untuk merekrut banyak anggota dewan untuk memaksa perusahaan lebih melindungi dan mengutamakan kepentingan pemegang saham melalui pencairan kas dalam bentuk deviden, sehingga akan mampu menarik investor untuk berinvestasi. Berkontribusi dengan menambah pengetahuan terkait riset mengenai hal-hal apa saja yang mendorong pembayaran dividen kepada investor. Faktor-faktor tersebut meliputi keragaman gender dan ukuran anggota dewan perusahaan.

The Effects of ERM Adoption on European Insurance Firms Performance and Risks

We investigate the effects of adopting enterprise risk management (ERM) on the performance and risks of European publicly listed insurance firms. Using a dataset for 24 years, we report new results which show that ERM adopters realize significant ERM premiums after controlling for other covariates and endogeneity. Several firm characteristics such as size, opacity, and the choice of external monitoring agents such as auditors are significant determinants of adopting ERM. We fill a gap in the literature by assessing the impact of adopting ERM on firm risks and report new findings for our sample, which show that ERM adopters effectively reduce firm total and systematic risks and, to a greater extent, idiosyncratic risk. Firm-level variables such as size, leverage, dividend payments events, and diversification impact firm total risk. Insurers use corporate events such as dividend payments to signal information about reducing risk. Industry and international diversification reduce firm total risk and idiosyncratic risk, respectively.

Threshold capital structure and predictors of choice between distribution strategies

Orientation: The determination of a threshold capital structure and company specific attributes as predictors of choice between distribution strategies is crucial in the creation of shareholders’ wealth.Research aim: To investigate whether the change in regimes given a threshold capital structure maximises distribution strategies over the period 1990–2017 and 1999–2017. In addition, the study examined how the capital ratio and company specific attributes were used in the process of choosing between distribution strategies.Motivation for the study: The need to determine the impact of the capital ratio within different regions on distribution strategies motivated this study. In addition, the majority of studies on predictors of choice between distribution strategies have ignored the dual and the no distribution policy alternatives relative to share repurchases.Research approach/design and method: all the data used in this research were sourced from the Iress data bases. The research employed an advanced panel threshold regression estimation and a multinomial logistic regression (pooled and fixed effects using the generalised structural equation model).Main findings: Firstly, over the period 1990–2017 the empirical results revealed the existence of a single threshold effect between the debt-to-equity ratio and the dividend payments, and a double threshold effect between the total debt based on the book value and the dividend payment. Secondly, the choice between distribution strategies was driven by company specific attributes.Practical/managerial implication: These findings provide useful insights to South African managers for formulating and maximizing pay-out decisions.Contribution/value-add: The study contributes to the scant body of knowledge on the effect of threshold capital ratio and company specific attributes on distribution strategies.

Ukrainian leadership buffeted by crises but surviving

Significance He failed to say whether there was still a conflict of interest through dividend payments to his family. This adds to Zelensky's public relations problems, which involve chronic challenges relating to the economy, COVID-19, corruption and the conflict in eastern regions. Impacts Former Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's comment that Ukraine's leaders are not even worth talking to signals a harsher stance. Political scandals will do nothing to improve Ukraine's image abroad but are unlikely to affect strategic relations with Western partners. If Zelensky's personal ratings remain high and stable through the winter months, he may be tempted to call an early presidential election. If household energy prices are kept at present levels, the cost of subsidies will exacerbate budget financing pressures.

Analyst Dividend Forecasts and Their Usefulness to Investors

In contrast to the disappearing dividends view prevalent in the literature, we document extensive dividend payments by firms and significant variability within firms and across 16 countries during 2000-2013. We predict that within-firm variability in dividends increases investor demand for forward-looking dividend information, and analysts respond by producing informative dividend forecasts. We find that analyst dividend forecasts are available for most dividend-paying firms and are more prevalent for firms with higher variability of dividends. Analyst dividend forecasts are more accurate than alternative proxies based on extrapolations of past dividends. Finally, dividend forecasts (i) are incrementally useful to investors beyond information in other fundamentals such as earnings and cash flow forecasts, (ii) help investors interpret earnings quality, and (iii) are associated with investors' portfolio allocation decisions.