scholarly journals Assessment of Flood Forecast Products for a Coupled Tributary-Coastal Model

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 312
Author(s):  
Robert Cifelli ◽  
Lynn E. Johnson ◽  
Jungho Kim ◽  
Tim Coleman ◽  
Greg Pratt ◽  
...  

Compound flooding, resulting from a combination of riverine and coastal processes, is a complex but important hazard to resolve along urbanized shorelines in the vicinity of river mouths. However, inland flooding models rarely consider oceanographic conditions, and vice versa for coastal flood models. Here, we describe the development of an operational, integrated coastal-watershed flooding model to address this issue of compound flooding in a highly urbanized estuarine environment, San Francisco Bay (CA, USA), where the surrounding communities are susceptible to flooding along the bay shoreline and inland rivers and creeks that drain to the bay. The integrated tributary-coastal forecast model (Hydro-Coastal Storm Modeling System, or Hydro-CoSMoS) was developed to provide water managers and other users with flood forecast information beyond what is currently available. Results presented here are focused on the interaction of the Napa River watershed and the San Pablo Bay at the northern end of San Francisco Bay. This paper describes the modeling setup, the scenario used in a tabletop exercise (TTE), and the assessment of the various flood forecast information products. Hydro-CoSMoS successfully demonstrated the capability to provide watershed and coastal flood information at scales and locations where no such information is currently available and was also successful in showing how tributary flows could be used to inform the coastal storm model during a flooding scenario. The TTE provided valuable feedback on how to guide continued model development and to inform what model outputs and formats are most useful to end-users.

Author(s):  
Krista L. C. Conner ◽  
Dale R. Kerper ◽  
Lisa R. Winter ◽  
Christine L. May ◽  
Kathleen Schaefer

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2481
Author(s):  
Babak Tehranirad ◽  
Liv Herdman ◽  
Kees Nederhoff ◽  
Li Erikson ◽  
Robert Cifelli ◽  
...  

Accurate and timely flood forecasts are critical for making emergency-response decisions regarding public safety, infrastructure operations, and resource allocation. One of the main challenges for coastal flood forecasting systems is a lack of reliable forecast data of large-scale oceanic and watershed processes and the combined effects of multiple hazards, such as compound flooding at river mouths. Offshore water level anomalies, known as remote Non-Tidal Residuals (NTRs), are caused by processes such as downwelling, offshore wind setup, and also driven by ocean-basin salinity and temperature changes, common along the west coast during El Niño events. Similarly, fluvial discharges can contribute to extreme water levels in the coastal area, while they are dominated by large-scale watershed hydraulics. However, with the recent emergence of reliable large-scale forecast systems, coastal models now import the essential input data to forecast extreme water levels in the nearshore. Accordingly, we have developed Hydro-CoSMoS, a new coastal forecast model based on the USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) powered by the Delft3D San Francisco Bay and Delta community model. In this work, we studied the role of fluvial discharges and remote NTRs on extreme water levels during a February 2019 storm by using Hydro-CoSMoS in hindcast mode. We simulated the storm with and without real-time fluvial discharge data to study their effect on coastal water levels and flooding extent, and highlight the importance of watershed forecast systems such as NOAA’s National Water Model (NWM). We also studied the effect of remote NTRs on coastal water levels in San Francisco Bay during the 2019 February storm by utilizing the data from a global ocean model (HYCOM). Our results showed that accurate forecasts of remote NTRs and fluvial discharges can play a significant role in predicting extreme water levels in San Francisco Bay. This pilot application in San Francisco Bay can serve as a basis for integrated coastal flood modeling systems in complex coastal settings worldwide.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liv Herdman ◽  
Li Erikson ◽  
Patrick Barnard

The highly urbanized estuary of San Francisco Bay is an excellent example of a location susceptible to flooding from both coastal and fluvial influences. As part of developing a forecast model that integrates fluvial and oceanic drivers, a case study of the Napa River and its interactions with the San Francisco Bay was performed. For this application we utilize Delft3D-FM, a hydrodynamic model that computes conservation of mass and momentum on a flexible mesh grid, to calculate water levels that account for tidal forcing, storm surge generated by wind and pressure fields, and river flows. We simulated storms with realistic atmospheric pressure, river discharge, and tidal forcing to represent a realistic joint fluvial and coastal storm event. Storm conditions were applied to both a realistic field-scale Napa river drainage as well as an idealized geometry. With these scenarios, we determine how the extent, level, and duration of flooding is dependent on these atmospheric and hydrologic parameters. Unsurprisingly, the model indicates that maximal water levels will occur in a tidal river when high tides, storm surge, and large fluvial discharge events are coincident. Model results also show that large tidal amplitudes diminish storm surge propagation upstream and that phasing between peak fluvial discharges and high tide is important for predicting when and where the highest water levels will occur. The interactions between tides, river discharge, and storm surge are not simple, indicating the need for more integrated flood forecasting models in the future.


Author(s):  
Sheigla Murphy ◽  
Paloma Sales ◽  
Micheline Duterte ◽  
Camille Jacinto

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 44-66
Author(s):  
José Ramón Lizárraga ◽  
Arturo Cortez

Researchers and practitioners have much to learn from drag queens, specifically Latinx queens, as they leverage everyday queerness and brownness in ways that contribute to pedagogy locally and globally, individually and collectively. Drawing on previous work examining the digital queer gestures of drag queen educators (Lizárraga & Cortez, 2019), this essay explores how non-dominant people that exist and fluctuate in the in-between of boundaries of gender, race, sexuality, the physical, and the virtual provide pedagogical overtures for imagining and organizing for new possible futures that are equitable and just. Further animated by Donna Haraway’s (2006) influential feminist post-humanist work, we interrogate how Latinx drag queens as cyborgs use digital technologies to enhance their craft and engage in powerful pedagogical moves. This essay draws from robust analyses of the digital presence of and interviews with two Latinx drag queens in the San Francisco Bay Area, as well as the online presence of a Xicanx doggie drag queen named RuPawl. Our participants actively drew on their liminality to provoke and mobilize communities around socio-political issues. In this regard, we see them engaging in transformative public cyborg jotería pedagogies that are made visible and historicized in the digital and physical world.


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