scholarly journals Evaluation and Scenario Prediction of the Water-Energy-Food System Security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on the RF-Haken Model

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 695
Author(s):  
Yan Chen ◽  
Lifan Xu

As an important agricultural production area in China, the Yangtze River Economic Belt has a large amount of water resources and rich types of energy. Water and energy resources are the supporting basis of food production, and the production and use of energy also need to consume a large amount of water resources. The three affect each other and are interdependent. Paying attention to the synergistic security of water-energy-food system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is important for regional economic development. This paper uses the pressure-state-response (PSR) model and selects 27 indicators to build an evaluation index system of the regional water-energy-food system. We use the random forest model to evaluate the security level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2008 to 2017, and the Haken model is employed to identify the driving factors that dominate the synergistic evolution of the system. Then we take the identified factors as the key control variables under each scenario and launch a scenario simulation of some provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2025. The results show that due to the improvement of water and energy utilization efficiency and the advancement of agricultural production technology, the level of water-energy-food security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt improved significantly from 2008 to 2017. Each province performs differently in different subsystems, with water resources security being better in the upper reaches and Zhejiang and Shanghai in the lower reaches, and food security being better in the middle and lower reaches. The level of energy security is high in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou in the upper reaches and Shanghai and Anhui in the lower reaches. According to the results of scenario prediction for Jiangsu Province and Hubei Province in 2025, implementing moderate management in accordance with current management objectives can increase the overall security of the system to level 4. The two provinces should focus on controlling water resources and energy consumption and improving the utilization efficiency of water and energy in agricultural production.

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 ◽  
pp. 08004
Author(s):  
M.G. Manucharyan

One of the most important components of national security is food security. The country's food security is mainly ensured through the development of agriculture, food production and food import systems. The main problems of the development of the agri-food system of the republic were the increase of the level of provision of the population with food, the increase of the level of economic protection of the country, which, first of all, requires an increase of agricultural production to provide the population with locally produced food products, raw materials to the processing industry as much as possible, as well as to increase export volumes. The main goal of the research is to develop and outline the ways of further development of the RA food self-sufficiency based on the development of agricultural production. Based on the analysis of the current situation in the agricultural market, to propose a set of economic development measures, which will contribute to the increase of the food security level, the development of the agri-food system, the reduction of the poverty level of the rural communities. The research substantiated the preconditions for further growth of agricultural production, as a result of comprehensive studies and analyzes, the main directions of improving food production and increasing efficiency were outlined, which conditioned the scientific novelty.


2021 ◽  
Vol 248 ◽  
pp. 02002
Author(s):  
Gao Pengcheng

Using panel data from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta regions from 2014 to 2018, combined with the DEA model and the Malmquist index method, the energy efficiency of high-tech enterprises and their decomposition items are compared from both static and dynamic aspects. The results show that the overall energy utilization efficiency of the two places is in a state of continuous improvement. From 2014 to 2016, the efficiency of high-tech enterprises in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was better than that of the Yangtze River Delta region, but it was overtaken by the Yangtze River Delta region from 2017 to 2018. In contrast, the advantage of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region lies in pure technical efficiency, and the advantage of the Yangtze River Delta region lies in scale efficiency.


Water Policy ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiazhong Zheng ◽  
Weiguang Wang ◽  
Dan Chen ◽  
Xinchun Cao ◽  
Wanqiu Xing ◽  
...  

Abstract A coordinated nexus of agricultural resources is vital to achieve food security and sustainable development in China. Comprehensively considering the water–energy–food nexus as well as the external environment, this study adopts a three-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) modelling evaluation method to assess the agricultural production efficiency (APE) of seven provinces in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) during 1996–2015. The results show that the three-stage DEA modelling evaluation method reveals real APE and is considered to be a better quantitative method than conventional approaches. A gradually widening range of APE is an important challenge for this region. Significantly, this region generates huge demands for agricultural resources. Moreover, regional emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) decreased from 34.20 million tons standard coal in 1996 to 32.11 million tons standard coal in 2015, though APE has continued to decrease by 2.56% in the past two decades. In general, the management and technology levels should be improved simultaneously, even though specific opportunities for APE improvement vary across provinces in MLYR. However, understanding the temporal and spatial variation of APE along with the WEF nexus from a production-based insight is a vital step toward appropriately targeted policy making for nationwide resources savings and emissions reduction.


2020 ◽  
Vol 104 (sp1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Yan ◽  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
Qian Luo ◽  
Jiqiong Li ◽  
Xiaojuan Zhai ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 6571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuhui Ding ◽  
Zhu Fu ◽  
Hongwen Jia

Considering the undesirable output, this paper adopted the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model with the slack variable and super efficiency improvement, to measure industrial water utilization efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The paper also creatively introduces urbanization level and urban primacy into driver factors’ estimation by stochastic and fixed Tobit models, exploring how urbanization characteristics affected the water utilization in regional industrial production. The results showed that industrial water efficiency has maintained an upward trend during the whole period, while most central and western provinces have shown a U-shaped trend of decreasing first and then rising. However, the industrial water utilization efficiency of central regions is the lowest, and the eastern regions are the highest, catching up with western regions. Utilization efficiency shows an overall convergence during the research period from 2005 to 2017. Regarding the factors’ estimation, both population urbanization and land urbanization negatively affected industrial water utilization efficiency, particularly blind expansion and disorderly development. The urban primacy meant the unbalance of urbanization, which would lead to urban diseases and pollution transfer, while the effects of urban primacy depended on the urbanization level. However, the utilization efficiency of industrial water did not become better automatically along with urbanization development; therefore, the scale and speed of urbanization should be scientifically formulated. The effects of the level of economic development, the advanced industrial structure, and the level of foreign investment are significantly negative.


2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Schiffman

If you were organizing dinner parties for the world, you would need to put out 219,000 more place settings every night than you had the night before. That is how fast the Earth's population is growing. But global agricultural production is currently failing to keep pace. A June 2012 report by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) sees trouble looming ahead, warning that “land and water resources are now much more stressed than in the past and are becoming scarcer.”


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