scholarly journals Modelling MTPL insurance claim events: Can machine learning methods overperform the traditional GLM approach?

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 34-69
Author(s):  
Dávid Burka ◽  
László Kovács ◽  
László Szepesváry
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Generalised Linear Modelling

Pricing an insurance product covering motor third-party liability is a major challenge for actuaries. Comprehensive statistical modelling and modern computational power are necessary to solve this problem. The generalised linear and additive modelling approaches have been widely used by insurance companies for a long time. Modelling with modern machine learning methods has recently started, but applying them properly with relevant features is a great issue for pricing experts. This study analyses the claim-causing probability by fitting generalised linear modelling, generalised additive modelling, random forest, and neural network models. Several evaluation measures are used to compare these techniques. The best model is a mixture of the base methods. The authors’ hypothesis about the existence of significant interactions between feature variables is proved by the models. A simplified classification and visualisation is performed on the final model, which can support tariff applications later.

scholarly journals Development of digital twin of CNC unit based on machine learning methods

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu. G. Kabaldin ◽  
D. A. Shatagin ◽  
M. S. Anosov ◽  
A. M. Kuzmishina
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Dynamic Stability ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Sensor System ◽  
Cnc Machine ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Digital Twins

Introduction. It is shown that the digital twin (electronic passport) of a CNC machine is developed as a cyber-physical system. The work objective is to create neural network models to determine the operation of a CNC machine, its performance and dynamic stability under cutting.Materials and Methods. The development of mathematical models of machining processes using a sensor system and the Industrial Internet of Things is considered. Machine learning methods valid for the implementation of the above tasks are evaluated. A neural network model of dynamic stability of the cutting process is proposed, which enables to optimize the machining process at the stage of work preparation. On the basis of nonlinear dynamics approaches, the attractors of the dynamic cutting system are reconstructed, and their fractal dimensions are determined. Optimal characteristics of the equipment are selected by input parameters and debugging of the planned process based on digital twins.Research Results. Using machine learning methods allowed us to create and explore neural network models of technological systems for cutting, and the software for their implementation. The possibility of applying decision trees for the problem of diagnosing and classifying malfunctions of CNC machines is shown.Discussion and Conclusions. In real production, the technology of digital twins enables to optimize processing conditions considering the technical and dynamic state of CNC machines. This provides a highly accurate assessment of the production capacity of the enterprise under the development of the production program. In addition, equipment failures can be identified in real time on the basis of the intelligent analysis of the distributed sensor system data.

scholarly journals Neural Network Models for Empirical Finance

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 265
Author(s):  
Hector F. Calvo-Pardo ◽  
Tullio Mancini ◽  
Jose Olmo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Ensemble Methods ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Out Of Sample

This paper presents an overview of the procedures that are involved in prediction with machine learning models with special emphasis on deep learning. We study suitable objective functions for prediction in high-dimensional settings and discuss the role of regularization methods in order to alleviate the problem of overfitting. We also review other features of machine learning methods, such as the selection of hyperparameters, the role of the architecture of a deep neural network for model prediction, or the importance of using different optimization routines for model selection. The review also considers the issue of model uncertainty and presents state-of-the-art methods for constructing prediction intervals using ensemble methods, such as bootstrap and Monte Carlo dropout. These methods are illustrated in an out-of-sample empirical forecasting exercise that compares the performance of machine learning methods against conventional time series models for different financial indices. These results are confirmed in an asset allocation context.

scholarly journals User Response Prediction in Online Advertising

2021 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Zhabiz Gharibshah ◽  
Xingquan Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Mobile Apps ◽  
Online Advertising ◽  
Response Prediction ◽  
Online Marketing ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Comprehensive Review ◽  
Machine Learning Methods

Online advertising, as a vast market, has gained significant attention in various platforms ranging from search engines, third-party websites, social media, and mobile apps. The prosperity of online campaigns is a challenge in online marketing and is usually evaluated by user response through different metrics, such as clicks on advertisement (ad) creatives, subscriptions to products, purchases of items, or explicit user feedback through online surveys. Recent years have witnessed a significant increase in the number of studies using computational approaches, including machine learning methods, for user response prediction. However, existing literature mainly focuses on algorithmic-driven designs to solve specific challenges, and no comprehensive review exists to answer many important questions. What are the parties involved in the online digital advertising eco-systems? What type of data are available for user response prediction? How do we predict user response in a reliable and/or transparent way? In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of user response prediction in online advertising and related recommender applications. Our essential goal is to provide a thorough understanding of online advertising platforms, stakeholders, data availability, and typical ways of user response prediction. We propose a taxonomy to categorize state-of-the-art user response prediction methods, primarily focusing on the current progress of machine learning methods used in different online platforms. In addition, we also review applications of user response prediction, benchmark datasets, and open source codes in the field.

scholarly journals RESEARCH OF APPLICATIONS OF MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS IN IMPROVING OPC SOLUTIONS

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Tryasoguzov ◽  
Georgiy Teplov ◽  
Alexey Kuzovkov
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Applications Of Machine Learning ◽  
Topological Drawing

In this paper the effectiveness of machine learning methods for solving OPC problems was consider. The task was to determine the direction of displacement and the amount of displacement of the boundary of the segment of the topological drawing. The generated training database was used to train regression, random forest, gradient boosting, and feedforward convolutional neural network models.

scholarly journals Rise of the machines? Machine learning approaches and mental health: opportunities and challenges

2018 ◽  
Vol 213 (3) ◽  
pp. 509-510 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. Tiffin ◽  
Lewis W. Paton
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Potential Benefits

SummaryMachine learning methods are being increasingly applied to physical healthcare. In this article we describe some of the potential benefits, challenges and limitations of this approach in a mental health context. We provide a number of examples where machine learning could add value beyond conventional statistical modelling.Declaration of interestNone.

scholarly journals On increasing the productive time of drilling oil and gas wells using machine learning methods

Georesursy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 79-85
Author(s):  
Anatoliy N. Dmitrievsky ◽  
Alexander G. Sboev ◽  
Nikolai A. Eremin ◽  
Alexander D. Chernikov ◽  
Aleksandr V. Naumov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Drilling Process ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods

The article is devoted to the development of a hybrid method for predicting and preventing the development of troubles in the process of drilling wells based on machine learning methods and modern neural network models. Troubles during the drilling process, such as filtrate leakoff; gas, oil and water shows and sticking, lead to an increase in unproductive time, i.e. time that is not technically necessary for well construction and is caused by various violations of the production process. Several different approaches have been considered, including based on the regression model for predicting the indicator function, which reflects an approach to a developing trouble, as well as anomaly extraction models built both on basic machine learning algorithms and using the neural network model of deep learning. Showing visualized examples of the work of the developed methods on simulation and real data. Intelligent analysis of Big Geodata from geological and technological measurement stations is based on well-proven machine learning algorithms. Based on these data, a neural network model was proposed to prevent troubles and emergencies during the construction of wells. The use of this method will minimize unproductive drilling time.

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