scholarly journals The Sustainability of Malaysia’s Defined Contribution Pension System: Implementation of Deterministic Linear Programming

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (12S2) ◽  
pp. 97-103
Keyword(s):  
Linear Programming ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Defined Contribution ◽  
Random Factor ◽  
Terminal Wealth ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy

This article investigates, under deterministic linear programming model, asset allocation decision and optimal investment strategy for Malaysia’s defined contribution pension (DC) scheme -Employees Provident Fund (EPF). The model requires generation of scenarios and probabilities to represent future assets and liabilities streams. We employed Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to generate future returns of five asset classes i.e. equity, money market instrument, Malaysia government bond with 1 and 10 years of maturity date and property. Future liabilities factors were derived from two submodels; population and salary. In population model, the future status of the EPF members was determined using a Markov Chain model. Then, the random factors of assets and liabilities were used in the asset liability model (ALM) based on linear programming (LP) and fixed mix (FM) strategy. The results of the research are grouped in two levels. First, we briefly discuss the finding of the random factor model and then we analyse the optimal investment strategy for the EPF. In terms of finding an optimal investment strategy, the FM strategy generated higher expected terminal wealth than the LP strategy. This finding suggests that FM strategy is superior to the LP strategy. In addition, we find that the higher dividend distributed to the members may result in decreasing of the expected terminal wealth of the fund for both strategies. This portrays that dividend distribution policy may affect the financial soundness of the EPF in the long run

scholarly journals The Role of Inflation-indexed Bond in Optimal Management of Defined Contribution Pension Plan During the Decumulation Phrase

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoyi Zhang ◽  
Junyi Guo
Keyword(s):  
Pension Plan ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Defined Contribution ◽  
Inflation Risk ◽  
Dynamic Programming Approach ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy ◽  
Defined Contribution Pension Plan ◽  
Hamilton Jacobi Bellman

In this paper we investigate the optimal investment strategy for a defined contribution (DC) pension plan during the decumulation phrase which is risk-averse and pays close attention to inflation risk. The plan aims to maximize the expected constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility from the terminal wealth by investing the wealth in a financial market consisting of an inflation-indexed bond, an ordinary zero coupon bond and a risk-free asset. We derive the optimal investment strategy in closed-form using the dynamic programming approach by solving the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. Our theoretical and numerical results reveal that under some rational assumptions, an inflation-indexed bond do has significant advantage to hedge inflation risk.

scholarly journals Robust Time-Consistent Portfolio Selection for an Investor under CEV Model with Inflation Influence

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Peng Yang
Keyword(s):  
Probability Measure ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Risky Asset ◽  
Control Technique ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Cev Model ◽  
Terminal Wealth ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy

A robust time-consistent optimal investment strategy selection problem under inflation influence is investigated in this article. The investor may invest his wealth in a financial market, with the aim of increasing wealth. The financial market includes one risk-free asset, one risky asset, and one inflation-indexed bond. The price process of the risky asset is governed by a constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model. The investor is ambiguity-averse; he doubts about the model setting under the original probability measure. To dispel this concern, he seeks a set of alternative probability measures, which are absolutely continuous to the original probability measure. The objective of the investor is to seek a time-consistent strategy so as to maximize his expected terminal wealth meanwhile minimizing his variance of the terminal wealth in the worst-case scenario. By using the stochastic optimal control technique, we derive closed-form solutions for the optimal time-consistent investment strategy, the probability scenario, and the value function. Finally, the influences of model parameters on the optimal investment strategy and utility loss function are examined through numerical experiments.

scholarly journals Optimal Investment Strategy for DC Pension Plan with Stochastic Income and Inflation Risk under the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Model

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (15) ◽  
pp. 1756
Author(s):  
Yang Wang ◽  
Xiao Xu ◽  
Jizhou Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
Closed Form Solution ◽  
Pension Plan ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Risky Asset ◽  
Legendre Transform ◽  
Defined Contribution ◽  
Inflation Risk ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy

This paper is concerned with the optimal investment strategy for a defined contribution (DC) pension plan. We assumed that the financial market consists of a risk-free asset and a risky asset, where the risky asset is subject to the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (O-U) process, and stochastic income and inflation risk were also considered in the model. We firstly derived the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation through the stochastic control method. Secondly, under the logarithmic utility function, the closed-form solution of optimal asset allocation was obtained by using the Legendre transform method. Finally, we give several numerical examples and a financial analysis.

scholarly journals HEURISTIC ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT STRATEGY

2006 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sigutė Vakrinienė ◽  
Arnoldina Pabedinskaitė
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Linear Programming ◽  
Present Article ◽  
Dual Task ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Matrix Game ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Heuristic Analysis

The present article investigates the problem of optimal investment, when, given a limited amount of funds, a decision must be taken to which projects and what amounts of funds are to be invested. Supposing that the expected average profit depends on several possible different market conditions, a matrix .game against nature. has been selected as the initial mathematical model. With a view to develop the optimal investment strategy, a linear programming task is formulated. The sensitivity of solutions to profitability coefficients is analysed by means of formulating a dual task for this task. The present article considers the stability and dynamics of the optimum investment strategy given a varying amount of the funds allocated to investment and the profitability of specific projects.

scholarly journals Relative Performance Concern on DC Pension Plan under Heston Model with Inflation Risk

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Aimin Song ◽  
Peimin Chen
Keyword(s):  
Pension Plan ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
The State ◽  
Heston Model ◽  
Dynamic Programming Principle ◽  
Defined Contribution ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Inflation Risk ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy

With the global outbreak of new coronavirus pneumonia, more and more countries have entered the state of sealing off cities. After the epidemic, with the shortage of some materials, the economy is very likely to enter the state of inflation. Thereby, it is necessary and urgent for us to reconsider investment problems involving inflation risk. In this paper, we mainly study the optimal investment strategy of two defined contribution (DC) pension managers with strategy interaction under inflation risk. The traditional portfolio literatures mainly focus on DC pension plan and try to maximize the expected utility of terminal nominal wealth. In this paper, we consider the more complicated situation that pension managers have, both concerns on relative wealth and relative risk aversion. Then, the objective function is constructed to satisfy these two concerns. The dynamic programming principle method is employed to solve the above problems, and a series of analytical solutions to this problem are obtained. Finally, some numerical examples are discussed for the economic implications to support our theoretical results.

scholarly journals Optimal Investment-Consumption Strategy under Inflation in a Markovian Regime-Switching Market

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huiling Wu
Keyword(s):  
Regime Switching ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Power Utility ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy ◽  
Admissible Strategies ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Markovian Regime Switching ◽  
Optimal Investment And Consumption

This paper studies an investment-consumption problem under inflation. The consumption price level, the prices of the available assets, and the coefficient of the power utility are assumed to be sensitive to the states of underlying economy modulated by a continuous-time Markovian chain. The definition of admissible strategies and the verification theory corresponding to this stochastic control problem are presented. The analytical expression of the optimal investment strategy is derived. The existence, boundedness, and feasibility of the optimal consumption are proven. Finally, we analyze in detail by mathematical and numerical analysis how the risk aversion, the correlation coefficient between the inflation and the stock price, the inflation parameters, and the coefficient of utility affect the optimal investment and consumption strategy.

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