A Development of Hydrologic Dam Risk Analysis Model Using Bayesian Network(BN)

2015 ◽  
Vol 48 (10) ◽  
pp. 781-791 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin-Young Kim ◽  
◽  
Jin-Guk Kim ◽  
Byoung-Han Choi ◽  
Hyun-Han Kwon
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Dam Risk

scholarly journals Risk Control Technology for Water Inrush during the Construction of Deep, Long Tunnels

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Yiming Liu ◽  
Yuanpu Xia ◽  
Hao Lu ◽  
Ziming Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Water Inrush ◽  
Risk Control ◽  
Risk Information ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Control Scheme ◽  
Changes In Risk

Water inrush is one of the main disasters occurring during tunnel construction in complex geological areas: once it happens, it can cause economic losses, casualties, and delay. Based on risk analysis and management, a risk control scheme is proposed as an effective means to control the risk of such a disaster; however, there are some deficiencies in existing research because the impacts of human factors on the risk of water inrush, dynamic changes in risk information during construction, and the diversity of types of water inrush are neglected. To enrich the research results of water inrush risk control and improve the effect of water inrush risk control, we first use the advantages of Bayesian network to analyse risk events, construct a Bayesian network structure chart of water inrush risk during construction, and propose a fuzzy probability risk analysis model for water inrush. The model can quickly track changes in risk information and diagnose the cause of water inrush disasters while providing an early warning thereof. In addition, considering that the diversity of water inrush types leads to differences in water inrush mechanisms, we believe that the formulation of any water inrush risk control scheme must be combined with water inrush mechanism analysis; therefore, we take a nondefect generated water inrush in front of the tunnel as a representative case and analyse the possible mechanism of water inrush through the stability analysis of the water-resisting strata. Then, based on the results of risk analysis and an analysis of the water inrush mechanism, a reasonable risk control scheme for water inrush is derived.

A Bayesian-Network-based Approach to Risk Analysis in Runway Excursions

2019 ◽  
Vol 72 (5) ◽  
pp. 1121-1139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Calle-Alonso ◽  
Carlos J. Pérez ◽  
Eduardo S. Ayra
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Exploratory Analysis ◽  
Hypothesis Tests ◽  
Aircraft Accidents ◽  
Risk Scenarios ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
Expert Recommendations

Aircraft accidents are extremely rare in the aviation sector. However, their consequences can be very dramatic. One of the most important problems is runway excursions, when an aircraft exceeds the end (overrun) or the side (veer-off) of the runway. After performing exploratory analysis and hypothesis tests, a Bayesian-network-based approach was considered to provide information from risk scenarios involving landing procedures. The method was applied to a real database containing key variables related to landing operations on three runways. The objective was to analyse the effects over runway overrun excursions of failing to fulfil expert recommendations upon landing. For this purpose, the most influential variables were analysed statistically, and several scenarios were built, leading to a runway ranking based on the risk assessed.

Research on Combat Effectiveness Evaluation of Radar EW System Based on Bayesian Network

2011 ◽  
Vol 204-210 ◽  
pp. 1697-1700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Jie Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Effectiveness Evaluation ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Simulation Data ◽  
Factors Analysis ◽  
Combat Effectiveness ◽  
Hidden Knowledge

Radar EW system combat effectiveness evaluation is a essential link to Radar system Demonstration, mainly give service to selection, optimization and key factors analysis of Weapon equipment scheme. In this paper, we introduce the Bayesian network model into the area of Radar EW system combat effectiveness evaluation and put forward the concept of combat effectiveness evaluation model based on Bayesian network. The ability to express complex relationship, the ability to express the uncertainty of probability, and the reasoning functions. By learning from Expertise and Simulation data, excavating the hidden knowledge included in both of them, we can build the combat efficiency Analysis model, and then carry out efficient analysis.

Scenario based evaluation of a cost risk model through sensitivity analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Önder Ökmen ◽  
Ahmet Öztaş
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Cost Evaluation ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Detailed Evaluation ◽  
Cost Risk

Purpose – Actual costs frequently deviate from the estimated costs in either favorable or adverse direction in construction projects. Conventional cost evaluation methods do not take the uncertainty and correlation effects into account. In this regard, a simulation-based cost risk analysis model, the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model, previously has been proposed to evaluate the uncertainty effect on construction costs in case of correlated costs and correlated risk-factors. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the detailed evaluation of the Cost Risk Analysis Model through scenario and sensitivity analyses. Design/methodology/approach – The evaluation process consists of three scenarios with three sensitivity analyses in each and 28 simulations in total. During applications, the model’s important parameter called the mean proportion coefficient is modified and the user-dependent variables like the risk-factor influence degrees are changed to observe the response of the model to these modifications and to examine the indirect, two-sided and qualitative correlation capturing algorithm of the model. Monte Carlo Simulation is also applied on the same data to compare the results. Findings – The findings have shown that the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model is capable of capturing the correlation between the costs and between the risk-factors, and operates in accordance with the theoretical expectancies. Originality/value – Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model can be preferred as a reliable and practical method by the professionals of the construction sector thanks to its detailed evaluation introduced in this paper.

scholarly journals Research for Risk Management of Construction Projects in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2034
Author(s):  
Chien-Liang Lin ◽  
Bey-Kun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Sustainable Operation ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
Risk Managers

Risks inevitably exist in all stages of a project. In a construction project, which is highly dynamic and complex, risk factors affect the expected achievement rates of the three main performance goals, namely schedule, cost, and quality. A comprehensive risk management procedure requires three crucial steps: risk confirmation, analysis, and treatment. Risk analysis is the core of risk management. Through structural equation modeling, this study developed a risk analysis model that takes a different perspective and considered the occurrence probability of risk events and the extent to which these events affect a project. The contractor dimension was discovered to exert the strongest influence on an overall project, followed by the subcontractor and design dimensions. This paper proposes a novel construction project risk analysis model, which considers the entire project. The proposed model can be used as a reference for risk managers to make decisions about project risks, so as to achieve the ultimate goal of saving resources and the sustainable operation of the construction project.

A novel failure mode and effect analysis model for machine tool risk analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 173-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huai-Wei Lo ◽  
James J.H. Liou ◽  
Chun-Nen Huang ◽  
Yen-Ching Chuang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Machine Tool ◽  
Failure Mode ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Effect Analysis
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